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Transurban Group Ltd. (AU:TCL)
ASX:TCL

Transurban Group (TCL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Transurban Group

(Sydney:TCL)

69Neutral
Transurban Group Ltd. exhibits strong operational and financial performance, underscored by significant traffic and revenue growth and effective cost management. However, the high leverage on the balance sheet and an extremely high P/E ratio suggest potential risks. The company benefits from strong technical momentum and a solid dividend yield, which partially offsets valuation concerns. Legal issues and construction-related disruptions are noted but are managed effectively.

Transurban Group (TCL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransurban Group develops, operates, manages, and maintains toll road networks. It operates 21 toll roads in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane in Australia; the Greater Washington area, the United States; and Montreal, North America. The company is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransurban Group Ltd. primarily generates revenue through toll collections from its extensive network of roads. The company operates under long-term concessions that allow it to charge users for access to its toll roads. Revenue is mainly derived from electronic tolling systems, which offer convenience and efficiency in toll collection. Additionally, Transurban's strategic partnerships with government entities play a crucial role, as these partnerships facilitate the development and expansion of new road projects. The company also engages in traffic management services and offers value-added services like dynamic pricing and customer programs to enhance revenue streams. Factors such as traffic volume, pricing strategies, and economic conditions significantly impact its earnings.

Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Transurban Group Ltd. demonstrates solid profitability and cash flow generation, despite a slight decline in revenue. The company’s balance sheet shows significant leverage, which should be monitored closely as it could impact financial stability in adverse conditions. Overall, the firm is in a strong position with good operational efficiency, but caution is advised regarding revenue trends and leverage levels.
Income Statement
Transurban Group Ltd. has shown a strong improvement in profitability metrics with a significant increase in Gross Profit Margin to 57.0% and Net Profit Margin to 7.9% for the latest year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue has declined slightly by 0.9% compared to the previous year, which could be a concern if it continues.
Balance Sheet
65
The company's Debt-to-Equity ratio is relatively high at 1.81, reflecting significant leverage which poses a risk. Return on Equity has improved to 2.95%, and the Equity Ratio stands at 30.1%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. While the company's leverage is considerable, it is managing to maintain a stable equity base.
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is strong at 5.0, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. Free Cash Flow to Net Income is 1.58, indicating positive free cash flow generation. However, Free Cash Flow has decreased by 8.0% from the previous period, which could impact future flexibility if it persists.
Breakdown
Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.12B4.16B3.41B2.89B3.17B
Gross Profit
1.28B1.17B730.00M658.00M688.00M
EBIT
1.13B948.00M531.00M484.00M537.00M
EBITDA
2.19B2.22B1.95B1.61B1.73B
Net Income Common Stockholders
326.00M64.00M19.00M-423.00M-111.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.04B2.08B2.02B4.29B2.35B
Total Assets
36.69B37.72B38.97B35.67B37.97B
Total Debt
19.95B18.70B17.77B17.97B21.23B
Net Debt
17.91B16.62B15.75B13.69B18.88B
Total Liabilities
25.02B24.44B23.74B24.54B29.17B
Stockholders Equity
11.04B12.57B14.42B10.34B7.87B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
515.00M560.00M861.00M294.00M-267.00M
Operating Cash Flow
1.63B1.74B1.47B1.34B1.30B
Investing Cash Flow
-760.00M-943.00M-6.42B1.22B-2.27B
Financing Cash Flow
-911.00M-739.00M2.65B-576.00M1.66B

Transurban Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.31
Price Trends
50DMA
13.46
Positive
100DMA
13.39
Positive
200DMA
13.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.26
Negative
RSI
66.76
Neutral
STOCH
73.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.96, above the 50-day MA of 13.46, and above the 200-day MA of 13.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TCL.

Transurban Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUTCL
69
Neutral
$44.67B594.650.68%4.53%-6.59%-66.98%
64
Neutral
$4.25B11.695.23%249.83%4.04%-9.46%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TCL
Transurban Group
14.31
2.09
17.06%
APAJF
APA Group
5.20
-0.12
-2.26%
MAQAF
Atlas Arteria
3.30
-0.08
-2.37%

Transurban Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a robust operational performance with significant traffic and revenue growth, alongside effective cost management. The positive momentum was, however, slightly overshadowed by ongoing legal issues and construction-related traffic disruptions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Momentum in Operational Performance
Transurban reported a 10% increase in free cash for the half-year, driven by strong traffic growth across all markets and well-managed costs. Proportional toll revenue increased by 6.2%, and operating EBITDA grew by 9.4%.
Positive Traffic Growth
Traffic increased in all markets, with North American assets experiencing a standout growth of 7.1% supported by the new Fredericksburg extension and the Opitz Boulevard ramp.
Innovative Customer Engagement and Technology
Transurban continued to enhance customer experience with new app features displaying estimated travel time savings and improved digital tools. The company is also using AI to detect and respond faster to on-road incidents.
Successful Cost Management
Direct costs were reduced by 3%, supporting a 220 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin, and maintenance costs were strategically managed with a goal to keep cost growth below inflation for the full year.
Negative Updates
ConnectEast Litigation Impact
Transurban faced litigation from ConnectEast regarding roaming fees, resulting in an initial judgment against Transurban, with an amount claimed of around $10 million annually since 2009.
Traffic Disruptions from Construction
Construction impacts in Melbourne and Sydney, especially from projects like the Warringah freeway upgrade and the M7 M12 integration, have caused softer traffic on nearby assets.
Company Guidance
During the Transurban First Half 2025 Results Call, the company highlighted several key metrics indicating strong performance and strategic progress. Traffic increased across all markets, contributing to a 10% rise in free cash flow. The company confirmed its full-year distribution guidance of $0.65 per security, within a target free cash coverage range of 95% to 105%. Proportional toll revenue grew by 6.2%, and operating EBITDA saw a 9.4% increase, reflecting cost management efforts that led to a 3% reduction in expenses and a 220 basis point improvement in EBITDA margin. Additionally, the North American market experienced standout traffic growth of 7.1%. Transurban maintained a robust liquidity position with $2.8 billion, and its weighted average cost of debt slightly decreased to 4.4% due to strategic hedging. The company also emphasized ongoing innovations in technology and infrastructure, underscoring its commitment to long-term growth and value creation.

Transurban Group Corporate Events

Transurban Announces Strategic Organizational Changes for Growth
May 7, 2025

Transurban Group has announced organizational changes aimed at enhancing growth and operational efficiency, resulting in the departure of approximately 300 employees. These changes are part of a broader strategy to streamline operations, invest in customer-facing technologies, and focus on long-term growth opportunities, with expected annual cost savings exceeding $50 million.

Transurban Group Announces Cessation of Securities
May 6, 2025

Transurban Group announced the cessation of 38,561 unquoted performance awards due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This development may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the challenges in meeting performance conditions in the current market environment.

Transurban Queensland Secures CHF 120 Million in Swiss Bond Market
May 6, 2025

Transurban Queensland, a subsidiary of Transurban Group, has successfully priced CHF 120 million in senior secured notes in the Swiss bond market. This strategic financial move underlines Transurban’s robust market positioning and commitment to enhancing its financial flexibility, with the proceeds to be converted into Australian dollars, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and stakeholder interests positively.

Transurban Secures €650M and £300M in Eurobond Issuance
Apr 21, 2025

Transurban Group has successfully completed a financial transaction involving the issuance of €650 million in senior secured 10-year notes and £300 million in senior secured 15-year notes under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme. This move is expected to strengthen Transurban’s financial position and support its ongoing infrastructure projects, enhancing its market presence and providing potential benefits for stakeholders.

Transurban Reports Traffic Growth in March Quarter 2025
Apr 16, 2025

Transurban Group Ltd. reported a 1.8% increase in Average Daily Traffic (ADT) for the March quarter of 2025, averaging 2.5 million trips per day across its portfolio. This growth was driven by strong performances in Sydney and Melbourne, with Sydney seeing a 2.4% increase in ADT due to projects like WestConnex and NorthConnex, and Melbourne benefiting from increased discretionary travel and reduced construction impacts. However, Brisbane experienced a 0.4% decline due to Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, although underlying growth was evident when excluding the cyclone’s impact. In North America, traffic grew by 3.8%, supported by the performance of the 495 and 95 Express Lanes, despite adverse weather conditions. These results highlight Transurban’s resilience and adaptability in managing its diverse portfolio amidst varying regional challenges.

Transurban Secures €650 Million and £300 Million in Eurobond Market
Apr 10, 2025

Transurban Group has successfully priced €650 million and £300 million in senior secured notes under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme. The proceeds from these issuances will be converted into Australian dollars and used to refinance existing debt, support the company’s development projects, and for general corporate purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen Transurban’s financial position and support its ongoing growth initiatives.

Transurban Updates Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Apr 2, 2025

Transurban Group Ltd. has updated the Offering Circular for its Euro Medium Term Note Programme, which is lodged with the Singapore Exchange. This update is part of Transurban’s ongoing efforts to manage its financing strategies effectively, potentially impacting its financial operations and investor relations positively.

Transurban Chesapeake Secures $250 Million Financing
Mar 26, 2025

Transurban Group has announced that its subsidiary, Transurban Chesapeake, has secured a US$250 million debt facility through a 3-year bank loan. This financing will support Transurban Chesapeake’s general corporate purposes, reinforcing the company’s financial position and operational capabilities in the Greater Washington Area.

Transurban Group Announces Director’s Interest Change
Feb 28, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically involving Michelle Jablko, who has acquired 57,494 Deferred STI Securities. This change reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive management and could have implications for its governance and stakeholder engagement strategies.

Transurban Group Issues Unquoted Performance Awards
Feb 26, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the issuance of 57,463 unquoted performance awards under its employee incentive scheme. These securities, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, are part of the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain key personnel, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

Transurban Group Ltd. Releases 1H25 Results, Emphasizes Strategic Positioning
Feb 19, 2025

Transurban Group Ltd. released its 1H25 results, highlighting its role as a major player in the infrastructure management sector, particularly in toll road operations. The announcement emphasizes the company’s operational performance and underscores its strategic positioning in the industry. The results suggest the potential impact on stakeholders, while also addressing the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with future projects and market conditions.

Transurban Group Reports Strong Growth in 1H25 Amid Strategic Enhancements
Feb 19, 2025

Transurban Group has reported a strong operational performance in the first half of FY25, with a 2.4% increase in average daily traffic and a 9.4% rise in proportional operating EBITDA, despite a statutory net loss of $15 million. The company has maintained its FY25 distribution guidance, supported by a strong balance sheet and strategic management of operational costs. Transurban continues to prioritize partnerships with government bodies and technological advancements to enhance customer value and support long-term growth, while engaging in meaningful reforms to benefit stakeholders.

Transurban Reports Mixed Financial Results for 1H25
Feb 19, 2025

Transurban Group has released its Appendix 4D and 1H25 Interim Report, detailing a 13.7% decline in revenue from ordinary activities and a significant decrease in losses after tax. Despite these challenges, the company reported a 6.2% increase in toll revenue and a 9.4% rise in operating EBITDA, indicating operational resilience. The interim dividend has been set at 32.0 cents per security, showing stability compared to the prior year. These results underline Transurban’s ongoing adaptation to economic conditions and its focus on maintaining shareholder value through strategic financial management.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.