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Nextdc Limited
(Sydney:NXT)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
AU$10.00
â–¼(-27.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow (persistently large negative free cash flow) and recent operating profitability pressure (negative EBIT), alongside bearish-to-neutral technicals. These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook with strong FY-27 growth guidance and a large contracted order book, but execution and funding requirements remain key swing factors.
Positive Factors
Contracted, recurring data-centre revenue model
Recurring colocation and interconnection fees provide revenue visibility beyond individual deployments, while the carrier-neutral ecosystem can increase connectivity demand as more cloud providers, carriers and enterprises share the facilities. This supports durable customer density and scalable service revenue.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative free cash flow and heavy capital intensity
The data-centre expansion program requires very substantial investment before contracted capacity becomes billing revenue. Deeply negative free cash flow reduces internally generated funding and increases dependence on capital markets, making execution and financing conditions important to medium-term financial resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted, recurring data-centre revenue model
Recurring colocation and interconnection fees provide revenue visibility beyond individual deployments, while the carrier-neutral ecosystem can increase connectivity demand as more cloud providers, carriers and enterprises share the facilities. This supports durable customer density and scalable service revenue.
Read all positive factors
Nextdc Limited (NXT) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$7.71B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)76.1
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth16.22%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees310
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding760,488,500
10 Day Avg. Volume3,294,724
30 Day Avg. Volume3,996,895
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.54
Price to Book (P/B)1.58
Price to Sales (P/S)19.35
P/FCF Ratio-4.86
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$19.09Price Target Upside38.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$797.50M
Nextdc Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NEXTDC Limited is an Australian technology enterprise that delivers comprehensive data center solutions, encompassing outsourcing services, diverse connectivity options, and specialized infrastructure management software. The company facilitates e...
How the Company Makes Money
NextDC primarily makes money by selling data centre services to customers that place their IT equipment in NextDC facilities and consume associated services under contracted terms. The core revenue stream is colocation (data centre space) bundled ...
Nextdc Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational and financial momentum: record contracting (495 MW), a large binding forward order book (565 MW), double-digit net revenue and EBITDA growth (16% and 15%), substantial liquidity ($8.7B) and aggressive FY'27 revenue/EBITDA guidance (>50% net revenue growth and underlying EBITDA $385M–$410M). These positives were balanced against significant near-term capital expenditure needs ($5.25B–$5.75B), higher facility and corporate costs (each +17%), remaining billing activation risk (175 MW billing vs 740 MW contracted), and regulatory/power allocation uncertainty for future sites. On balance, the call emphasised execution and funding readiness to convert a large contracted pipeline into revenue, while acknowledging near-term execution and policy risks.Positive Updates
Record Contracting Year and Forward Order Book
Contracted utilization tripled (up 202%) to 740 MW pro forma; company contracted 495 MW in FY'26 and the forward order book reached 565 MW (all binding customer contracts) which underwrites a billing ramp to 740 MW by FY'30.
Negative Updates
High Near-Term Capital Expenditure Requirement
FY'27 total capital expenditure guidance of $5.25B–$5.75B (including ~$500M reimbursable customer fit-out) represents a large near-term cash outflow and acceleration of investment following FY'26 contracting of 495 MW.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Contracting Year and Forward Order Book
Contracted utilization tripled (up 202%) to 740 MW pro forma; company contracted 495 MW in FY'26 and the forward order book reached 565 MW (all binding customer contracts) which underwrites a billing ramp to 740 MW by FY'30.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
NEXTDC guided to strong FY‑27 growth, forecasting net revenue of $615–640m ( >50% YoY) and underlying EBITDA of $385–410m as the 565 MW forward order book accelerates billing (197 MW to convert in FY‑27 and a further 221 MW in FY‑28); total capital expenditure is expected to be $5.25–5.75bn (including ~$500m of reimbursable customer fit‑out) while 537 MW of built capacity is in progress and >130 MW planned against a total planned portfolio capacity of >3 GW; this sits on a balance sheet with $10.2bn of assets (PP&E $5.8bn, investment properties $3.2bn), net assets of ~ $6.1bn, $8.7bn available liquidity and $9.75bn raised in FY‑26, supporting delivery of contracted utilization of 740 MW (billing utilization was 175 MW in FY‑26 after 58% growth and FY‑26 contracted wins of 495 MW).Nextdc Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 496.49M | 427.21M | 404.34M | 362.37M | 291.04M |
| Gross Profit | 7.12M | 350.20M | 307.90M | 75.92M | 79.37M |
| EBITDA | 226.36M | 227.71M | 217.77M | 185.61M | 161.58M |
| Net Income | 82.06M | -60.54M | -44.15M | -25.64M | 9.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.24B | 5.69B | 5.22B | 3.85B | 2.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 875.98M | 243.69M | 1.24B | 765.84M | 456.56M |
| Total Debt | 3.36B | 1.21B | 1.46B | 1.44B | 1.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.14B | 1.54B | 1.65B | 1.57B | 1.28B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.09B | 4.15B | 3.57B | 2.28B | 1.70B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.98B | -1.37B | -809.66M | -579.21M | -459.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 99.89M | 222.64M | 128.79M | 126.79M | 122.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.06B | -1.59B | -950.91M | -710.02M | -599.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.60B | 372.08M | 1.29B | 893.06M | 286.98M |
Nextdc Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
13.80
Price Trends
12.52
Negative
13.43
Negative
13.34
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.62
Negative
29.03
Positive
22.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NXT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.88, above the 50-day MA of 12.52, and above the 200-day MA of 13.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.03 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NXT.
Nextdc Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$2.97B | 26.75 | 34.83% | 2.78% | 12.08% | 28.96% | |
65 Neutral | AU$4.67B | -87.95 | -5.20% | ― | 37.49% | -11816.67% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
58 Neutral | AU$1.31B | 39.39 | 5.72% | 3.36% | 5.50% | -7.85% | |
49 Neutral | AU$7.71B | 76.13 | 1.60% | ― | 16.22% | ― | |
48 Neutral | AU$10.94M | -1.51 | -162.05% | ― | -11.66% | 89.02% | |
43 Neutral | AU$103.61M | -8.54 | -14.07% | ― | 29.91% | 56.10% |
* Technology Sector Average
AU:NXT
Nextdc Limited
10.15
-5.56
-35.39%
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Nextdc Limited Corporate Events
Nextdc Issues Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Oct 8, 2026
Nextdc Limited has issued 29,308 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, with the securities registered under ASX code NXTAB and subject to transfer restrictions. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based...
NEXTDC Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Oct 8, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has issued 23,037 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted securities. The issuance reflects the company’s ongoing equity management and may marginally dilute existing holders ...
UBS exits substantial holder position in NEXTDC
Sep 18, 2026
UBS Group AG and its related bodies corporate have ceased to be substantial shareholders in NEXTDC Limited, effective 16 September 2026, according to a notice lodged with the company. The change reflects a reduction in UBS’s relevant interes...
NEXTDC Issues New Tranche of Long-Dated Convertible Notes
Sep 17, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has notified the market of the issue of 5,500 unquoted convertible notes due 17 September 2031. The notes were issued on 17 September 2026, reflecting the company’s use of long‑dated convertible debt as part of its capit...
NEXTDC Raises A$1.1 Billion via Subordinated Convertible Notes to Fuel Data Centre Expansion
Sep 16, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has announced the issuance of A$1.1 billion in fixed coupon subordinated unsecured convertible notes maturing in September 2031. The notes will rank below senior debt but equal with existing subordinated notes and above hybrid secur...
Citi group entities exit substantial holder status in NEXTDC
Sep 16, 2026
Citigroup Global Markets Australia Pty Limited and related Citi group entities have notified NEXTDC Ltd that they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the data centre operator as of 14 September 2026. The change follows adjustments in Ci...
NEXTDC Files Appendix 3B for Proposed Securities Issue
Sep 10, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has lodged an Appendix 3B with the ASX, outlining a proposed issue of securities under Listing Rule 3.10.3. While specific terms of the securities are not detailed in the excerpt, the filing confirms NEXTDC’s application for q...
NEXTDC Taps Global Markets With A$1.1bn Convertible Notes to Fund Data Centre Growth
Sep 9, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has launched an A$1.1 billion offering of fixed coupon subordinated convertible notes due 2031, which are convertible into ordinary shares and carry an indicative annual cash coupon of about 1.25% to 1.75%. The structure, including ...
NEXTDC Elevated to S&P/ASX 50 in Quarterly Index Rebalance
Sep 4, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has been added to the SP/ASX 50 Index as part of SP Dow Jones Indices’ September 2026 quarterly rebalance of major Australian equity benchmarks. The index changes, effective before the market opens on September 21, 2026, refle...
Nextdc seeks ASX quotation for new employee incentive shares
Sep 1, 2026
Nextdc Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 72,201 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 1 September 2026. The securities were created under an employee incentive scheme and will be quoted despite not being subject to transfer restr...
NEXTDC Sets Out FY26 Corporate Governance Framework to Support Digital Growth
Aug 27, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has released its FY26 Corporate Governance Statement, outlining the structures and practices guiding its management and oversight from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2026. The document details how the company’s governance underpins it...
NEXTDC Sets Out Broad ESG Agenda in FY26 Sustainability Report
Aug 27, 2026
NEXTDC has released its FY26 Environmental, Social and Governance Report, outlining its approach to responsible governance, environmental management and social sustainability across its nationwide data centre portfolio. The report details how the ...
NEXTDC Outlines FY26 Results and FY27 Outlook
Aug 27, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has released its full‑year FY26 results presentation, outlining financial performance, operational highlights and business developments over the period. The materials flag key themes around FY26 business performance, environme...
NEXTDC posts record FY26 result and ramps up capacity on surging demand
Aug 27, 2026
NEXTDC reported strong FY26 results, with net revenue rising 16% to A$405 million and underlying EBITDA up 15% to A$248.8 million, both above guidance, while statutory profit swung to A$82.1 million from a loss a year earlier. The data centre oper...
NEXTDC Swings to Profit on Contract Reclassification and Asset Revaluation
Aug 27, 2026
NEXTDC Limited reported a 16% rise in revenue to $496.5 million for the year to 30 June 2026, with net profit after tax swinging to $82.1 million from a $60.5 million loss a year earlier. Basic net tangible asset backing per share increased to $7....
NEXTDC sets date for full-year 2026 results and investor webcast
Aug 14, 2026
NEXTDC Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the full year ended 30 June 2026 after the market closes on 27 August 2026. The company will follow the release with a results briefing via webcast at 9:30am AEST on 28 Au...
NEXTDC boosts contracted utilisation and forward order book while holding FY26 guidance
Jul 21, 2026
NEXTDC has reported that its pro forma contracted utilisation rose by 73MW, or 11%, to 740MW as at 30 June 2026, driven by additional customer contract wins across its data centre portfolio. This growth underpins a pro forma forward order book tha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.