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Mayfield Childcare Ltd. (MFD) AI Stock Analysis

AU:MFD

Mayfield Childcare Ltd.

(ASX:MFD)

Select Model
Rating:39Underperform
Price Target:AUD 0.12â–²(2.50% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:09/24/26

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. faces critical structural risks, driving a near-bottom score. The rating is heavily weighed down by a profitability collapse, dangerous debt-to-equity levels (6.27x), and deeply negative earnings. Furthermore, a persistent long-term technical downtrend confirms strong market pessimism, vastly overshadowing the company's marginal cash generation capabilities.

Positive Factors
Long-term Revenue ScaleThe substantial increase in revenue over the 2020–2025 period shows that Mayfield has built a much larger operating base and expanded its childcare activity materially. This scale can support broader fixed-cost absorption and provide a foundation for recovery if growth resumes.
Negative Factors
Sharp Profitability DeteriorationThe move from modest or near-breakeven results in 2024 to a large 2025 net loss materially weakens earnings reliability. Persistent losses would reduce retained capital, limit reinvestment, and make the business more dependent on cash flow or external funding to sustain operations.

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. (MFD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%AU:MFD-69.23%EWA+13.51%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
AUD 12.67M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
151.26K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.3
Beta (1Y)
0.79
Revenue Growth
-4.90%
EPS Growth
-51.63%
Country
Australia
Employees
1,100
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Personal Products & Services

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Established in 2015, Mayfield Childcare Limited is an Australian firm specializing in the provision of long-day early learning and childcare services. The company manages a network of 36 centers distributed across Victoria, Queensland, and South Aust...

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The score reflects a highly distressed financial position. Surging debt, a massive net loss of $21.4 million, and eroding equity severely outweigh the sole bright spot of positive, yet weakening, operating cash flow.

Income Statement

15Very Negative

Balance Sheet

10Very Negative

Cash Flow

48Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue88.77M91.41M87.16M76.51M68.98M39.73M
Gross Profit4.55M4.90M87.16M3.22M10.25M6.78M
EBITDA15.42M15.93M17.54M13.18M20.22M9.99M
Net Income-31.36M-21.38M239.64K-1.43M4.88M2.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets197.58M218.02M246.10M235.71M219.23M226.61M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments194.62K87.70K103.00K362.67K2.66M2.27M
Total Debt169.45M157.35M168.63M160.41M141.09M144.08M
Total Liabilities181.05M169.62M180.64M170.32M149.45M161.01M
Stockholders Equity16.54M48.40M65.46M65.38M69.78M65.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow6.20M8.79M10.56M7.28M13.77M8.83M
Operating Cash Flow8.17M10.31M11.81M9.19M15.12M9.86M
Investing Cash Flow-1.97M-1.52M-3.82M-6.29M-1.16M-11.65M
Financing Cash Flow-6.39M-8.81M-8.24M-5.20M-10.88M2.53M

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price0.12

Price Trends

50DMA0.12Positive
100DMA0.13Negative
200DMA0.24Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.00Positive
RSI48.43Neutral
STOCH33.33Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MFD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.12, above the 50-day MA of 0.12, and below the 200-day MA of 0.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MFD.

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

AU:MFD against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
AU:EVOAU:EVO59NeutralAUD 75.35M-10.63-9.41%16.22%5.99%-145.93%
AU:BBNAU:BBN54NeutralAUD 145.05M12.829.02%―6.54%17.11%
AU:NXDAU:NXD39UnderperformAUD 10.96M-0.91-93.41%―-7.29%18.24%
AU:MFDAU:MFD39UnderperformAUD 12.67M-0.32-96.59%―-4.90%-51.63%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%AU:MFDAU:EVOAU:NXDAU:BBNDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
AU:MFD and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
AU:MFDMayfield Childcare Ltd.0.12-0.29-70.44%
AU:EVOEvolve Education Group Ltd0.37-0.23-38.13%
AU:NXDiCollege Ltd.0.05-0.22-81.85%
AU:BBNBaby Bunting Group Ltd.1.06-1.71-61.73%

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. Corporate Events

Embark pushes board shake-up at Mayfield Childcare, sparking governance concerns

Oct 20, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has called a hybrid general meeting for 25 November 2026 after major shareholder Embark Early Education Limited, which holds about 52.29% of its shares, requisitioned a vote on board changes. Embark is seeking to appoint it...

Embark Seeks Control of Mayfield Childcare Board After Gaining Majority Stake

Oct 1, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. has disclosed that Embark Early Education Ltd., which recently lifted its shareholding in Mayfield to 50.04%, has formally requested board changes via notices under sections 203D and 249D of the Corporations Act. Embark is see...

Mayfield Childcare Issues 2026 Half-Year Update With Strong Cautions for Investors

Sep 1, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has released its 2026 half-year results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, presented as summary information to be read alongside its interim financial report and ASX disclosures. The company emphasises that the presenta...

Mayfield Childcare posts wider loss but secures funding as occupancy slowly recovers

Aug 31, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited reported a 6% fall in half-year revenue to $41.3 million and a wider statutory net loss of $31.9 million, driven by lower average occupancy and $29 million of non-cash impairments. Underlying Centre EBITDA slipped 11% to $3...

Mayfield Childcare Releases Half-Year 2026 Financial Report

Aug 31, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has released its half-year report for the period ended 30 June 2026, outlining interim financial statements and related disclosures. The report includes the director’s commentary, auditor’s independence declarat...

Mayfield Childcare Swings Deeper Into Loss as Revenue and Occupancy Fall

Aug 31, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited reported a challenging first half to 30 June 2026, with revenue falling 6% to $41.3 million, primarily due to a 3 percentage point decline in portfolio occupancy. The company posted an underlying EBITDA loss of $0.8 million...

Mayfield Childcare Director Increases Stake via Entitlement Offer

Aug 28, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has reported a change in director Roseanne Celeste Healy’s holdings, reflecting increased equity participation in the company. Healy now holds 70,000 fully paid ordinary shares, up from 50,000, following her involveme...

Mayfield Childcare Director Increases Stake Through Entitlement Offer

Aug 28, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has disclosed a change in director Gregory James Johnson’s interests, reflecting his increased stake in the company’s ordinary shares. Johnson holds shares both directly and through the G J Superannuation Fund,...

Mayfield Childcare to Brief Investors on FY26 Half-Year Results via Webinar

Aug 28, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited, an Australian operator of 45 childcare centres offering over 4,000 places across Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, specialises in early childhood education and care. The group emphasises high-quality services, con...

Mayfield Childcare Raises $3m in Fully Subscribed Entitlement Offer

Aug 27, 2026

Mayfield Childcare has successfully completed a non-renounceable pro rata entitlement offer of two shares for every five held at an issue price of $0.10, raising about $3 million before costs. Eligible shareholders subscribed for around 90.1% of the...

Mayfield 360 Gains NDIS Registration to Expand Allied Health Services

Aug 13, 2026

Mayfield Childcare’s allied health arm, Mayfield 360, has been approved as a registered National Disability Insurance Scheme provider, marking a key milestone in the development of its early childhood developmental support offering. This regist...

Mayfield Childcare Launches Partially Underwritten Entitlement Offer

Aug 3, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has launched a pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer, allowing existing shareholders to subscribe for two new shares for every five held at an issue price of $0.10, aiming to raise up to approximately $3 million. The...

Mayfield Childcare to Raise $3 Million via Fully Covered Entitlement Offer

Aug 3, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Limited has launched a non-renounceable pro rata entitlement offer, issuing two new shares for every five held at $0.10 each to raise about $3 million, a 29% discount to its last closing price, in a move aimed at bolstering its bal...

Mayfield Childcare Plans Non-Renounceable Pro Rata Share Issue

Aug 3, 2026

Mayfield Childcare Ltd. has announced a non-renounceable pro rata offer of up to 30,169,843 new ordinary fully paid shares to existing shareholders. The offer, scheduled with an ex-date of 5 August 2026, a record date of 6 August 2026, and an issue d...

Mayfield Childcare Margins Squeezed as Occupancy Dips but Improvement Plan Gains Traction

Jul 24, 2026

Mayfield Childcare reported second-quarter FY26 revenue of $21.4 million, down from $22.4 million a year earlier, as lower occupancy and rising operating costs squeezed margins and reduced underlying centre EBITDA to $1.8 million. The company said sp...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 24, 2026