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Central Petroleum Limited
(Sydney:CTP)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.06
▲(5.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/18/26
The score is primarily held back by weak and volatile profitability (including a return to losses and margin compression) and bearish-to-soft technical conditions (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors are a materially improved balance-sheet leverage profile and positive free cash flow in 2026, but valuation remains hard to assess positively given the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Improved Balance-Sheet Leverage
The major reduction in leverage materially improves financial resilience and lowers the burden on future operating cash flow. A stronger equity base relative to debt gives Central Petroleum more flexibility to sustain production, fund development, and manage periods of earnings volatility.
Negative Factors
Return to Losses and Margin Compression
The reversal from strong profitability to a loss, alongside severe gross-margin compression, indicates that earnings remain highly sensitive to costs and realized pricing. If this persists, weaker profits could reduce reinvestment capacity and gradually undermine the balance-sheet improvement achieved in recent years.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Balance-Sheet Leverage
The major reduction in leverage materially improves financial resilience and lowers the burden on future operating cash flow. A stronger equity base relative to debt gives Central Petroleum more flexibility to sustain production, fund development, and manage periods of earnings volatility.
Read all positive factors
Central Petroleum Limited (CTP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$46.67M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)278.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.30
Revenue Growth2.57%
EPS Growth-163.46%
CountryAU
Employees86
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding752,764,000
10 Day Avg. Volume299,519
30 Day Avg. Volume278,444
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)1.02
P/FCF Ratio7.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$72.00M
Central Petroleum Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Central Petroleum Limited is an Australian company dedicated to the full lifecycle of hydrocarbon resources, including their development, extraction, processing, and sale. It possesses substantial stakes in numerous oil and gas properties, coverin...
How the Company Makes Money
Central Petroleum makes money primarily through upstream oil and gas production and related commercial arrangements. Its key revenue stream is the sale of produced natural gas (and, where applicable, associated hydrocarbon liquids) from its produc...
Central Petroleum Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 17, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial achievements, with significant profit turnaround, revenue growth, and shareholder returns. Despite some challenges such as oil offtake constraints and long-term market uncertainties, the company's strategic initiatives and financial health position it well for future growth.Positive Updates
Strong Operational and Financial Progress
Central Petroleum achieved significant milestones, including a multiyear gas sales agreement, two new production wells completed ahead of schedule and under budget, and a debt restructuring extending to 2030, enhancing financial flexibility.
Negative Updates
Oil Offtake Constraints
Oil offtake was partially constrained in the fourth quarter, which affected gas production, though solutions have been implemented.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operational and Financial Progress
Central Petroleum achieved significant milestones, including a multiyear gas sales agreement, two new production wells completed ahead of schedule and under budget, and a debt restructuring extending to 2030, enhancing financial flexibility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the call, Central Petroleum's leadership provided extensive guidance on their fiscal performance and strategic direction for 2025. The company reported a statutory profit of $7.7 million, highlighting a significant turnaround from the previous year's underlying loss of $1.4 million. Revenues increased by 17% to $43.6 million, driven by a 19% rise in realized gas prices to $9.02 per gigajoule. Operational successes included the drilling and commissioning of two new Mereenie wells, which exceeded production expectations and were completed ahead of schedule and under budget. Financially, the company restructured its debt, extending amortization to 2030, and ended the fiscal year with a cash position of $27.5 million. Central Petroleum also announced its first-ever share buyback program and is considering sustainable dividends. Looking forward, they are focused on maintaining momentum through firm gas contracts, cost control, and exploration opportunities, including further drilling at Palm Valley and Mereenie and exploring high-potential prospects like Mount Kitty. The company aims to balance shareholder returns with long-term growth.Central Petroleum Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 44.75M | 43.63M | 37.15M | 39.26M | 42.15M |
| Gross Profit | 1.87M | 14.54M | 4.43M | 19.14M | 14.80M |
| EBITDA | 5.43M | 15.65M | 24.06M | 3.70M | 32.39M |
| Net Income | -4.92M | 7.73M | 12.42M | -7.96M | 21.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 117.69M | 114.01M | 103.64M | 98.13M | 122.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.41M | 27.47M | 24.98M | 13.83M | 21.65M |
| Total Debt | 27.92M | 26.05M | 24.21M | 28.15M | 31.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 83.49M | 73.11M | 71.08M | 78.74M | 95.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.20M | 40.91M | 32.55M | 19.39M | 26.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.87M | 5.78M | 3.92M | -4.91M | -7.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.34M | 14.30M | 6.86M | -2.06M | 3.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.20M | -10.11M | 9.45M | -1.50M | 17.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.21M | -1.70M | -5.15M | -4.27M | -36.56M |
Central Petroleum Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
0.06
Price Trends
0.06
Negative
0.06
Negative
0.07
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
45.89
Neutral
-66.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CTP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.06, and below the 200-day MA of 0.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -66.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CTP.
Central Petroleum Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | AU$27.51B | 25.80 | 4.69% | 3.62% | -8.49% | -31.47% | |
63 Neutral | AU$1.88B | 6.68 | 8.74% | 3.64% | -8.77% | ― | |
50 Neutral | AU$1.66B | -21.68 | -8.80% | ― | ― | 51.03% | |
48 Neutral | AU$46.67M | -9.39 | -13.43% | ― | 2.57% | -163.46% | |
46 Neutral | AU$17.66M | -2.89 | -23.11% | ― | ― | 71.52% | |
43 Neutral | AU$422.25M | -19.31 | -9.91% | ― | ― | 28.92% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:CTP
Central Petroleum Limited
0.06
0.00
0.00%
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0.83
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0.01
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0.03
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Central Petroleum Limited Corporate Events
Central Petroleum Files Updated ASX Corporate Governance Disclosures
Sep 17, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has lodged its updated corporate governance statement and accompanying Appendix 4G with the ASX for the financial year ended 30 June 2026. The statement, current as at 15 September 2026 and approved by the board, is hoste...
Central Petroleum Tightens Governance and Diversity Framework
Sep 17, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has articulated its commitment to high corporate governance standards in line with the ASX Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations. The Board seeks to balance best practice with the company’s size, focus...
Central Petroleum posts FY26 loss but strengthens cash flows ahead of Palm Valley growth
Sep 17, 2026
Central Petroleum reported FY2026 underlying EBITDAX of $17.0 million and net operating cash flow of $15.6 million, as higher realised gas prices lifted operating margins despite slightly lower gas volumes and a sharp fall in oil and condensate ou...
Echelon Resources Starts Palm Valley Gas Appraisal Drilling
Jul 27, 2026
Echelon Resources has commenced drilling the Palm Valley 14 appraisal well, the first in a two-well programme in Australia’s Palm Valley permit OL3, with Ensign Rig 974 spudding PV-14 on 25 July 2026. The campaign targets the Pacoota formati...
Cue Energy Starts Palm Valley Appraisal Drilling to Boost NT Gas Supply
Jul 27, 2026
Cue Energy has commenced drilling the PV14 appraisal well, the first in a two-well program at the Palm Valley gas field in the Northern Territory, using Ensign Rig 974. The four-and-a-half-month program aims to bring first gas from PV14 to market ...
Central Petroleum Spuds Palm Valley Well and Ramps Up Otway, Cooper Exploration
Jul 27, 2026
Central Petroleum has spudded PV14, the first of two lateral appraisal wells in its Palm Valley drilling program, aiming to restore plant sales capacity to about 14 terajoules per day and deliver at least 10 petajoules of gas over the wells’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.