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Central Petroleum Limited
(Sydney:CTP)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.06
â–¼(-5.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/15/26
AU:CTP scores 52, driven primarily by uneven financial performance (loss and sharp margin compression in 2026, partly offset by positive free cash flow and improved leverage). Technicals remain weak with price below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is constrained by a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield. The earnings call adds support via strong contracted volumes and improved expected cash flow, but execution risk around Palm Valley well performance and cost control remains material.
Positive Factors
Contracted gas volumes
Multi-year gas sale agreements improve revenue visibility and reduce exposure to short-term demand fluctuations. Contracted offtake also supported investment decisions for Palm Valley wells, giving planned production growth a clearer commercial pathway over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability
The sharp reversal from strong prior-year margins to a loss shows that earnings remain sensitive to costs, realized pricing, and production conditions. Persistent profitability volatility could weaken retained capital, reduce funding flexibility, and make the growth program harder to execute consistently.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted gas volumes
Multi-year gas sale agreements improve revenue visibility and reduce exposure to short-term demand fluctuations. Contracted offtake also supported investment decisions for Palm Valley wells, giving planned production growth a clearer commercial pathway over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
Central Petroleum Limited (CTP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$42.15M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)345.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.34
Revenue Growth2.57%
EPS Growth-163.46%
CountryAU
Employees86
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding752,764,000
10 Day Avg. Volume406,864
30 Day Avg. Volume345,908
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)1.02
P/FCF Ratio7.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$72.00M
Central Petroleum Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Central Petroleum Limited is an Australian company dedicated to the full lifecycle of hydrocarbon resources, including their development, extraction, processing, and sale. It possesses substantial stakes in numerous oil and gas properties, coverin...
How the Company Makes Money
Central Petroleum makes money primarily through upstream oil and gas production and related commercial arrangements. Its key revenue stream is the sale of produced natural gas (and, where applicable, associated hydrocarbon liquids) from its produc...
Central Petroleum Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 17, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 11, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive, with higher FY2026 revenue and operating margins, contracted gas volumes, improved expected cash flow, portfolio diversification and several planned growth opportunities. However, the company reported a statutory net loss, lower sales volumes, a Palm Valley drilling cost overrun, uncertainty around PV14's production after encountering water, depressed shareholder returns and continuing Northern Territory market and policy uncertainty.Positive Updates
Revenue and Operating Margin Growth
FY2026 revenue increased 3% to $44.7 million despite lower sales volumes. Average realized prices increased 10% to $10.10 per gigajoule equivalent, while the average gas price increased 3% to $10.38 per gigajoule in the June quarter. Operating margins increased 5% to almost $5 per gigajoule equivalent, up 36% over two years.
Negative Updates
FY2026 Statutory Net Loss
Central reported a $4.9 million statutory net loss for FY2026. Overall gross operating profit was steady at $15 million, but exploration-related costs affected the bottom line.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Operating Margin Growth
FY2026 revenue increased 3% to $44.7 million despite lower sales volumes. Average realized prices increased 10% to $10.10 per gigajoule equivalent, while the average gas price increased 3% to $10.38 per gigajoule in the June quarter. Operating margins increased 5% to almost $5 per gigajoule equivalent, up 36% over two years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Central expects 98% of its expected gas production for calendar year '27 to be contracted, over 80% of expected gas production for the next 3 years contracted, and the gas overlift repayment to release an expected $7 million per year in additional margin and cash flow; the new Palm Valley wells are targeting plant capacity of about 14 terajoules a day, which would boost Central's production revenues by about 40%, with initial production of around 9 TJs per day in aggregate from PV14 and PV15 needed to achieve that, and the total drilling program is currently forecast to exceed budget by about 5% against a total program cost in the order of $50 million, or $25 million for Central's 50% interest. PV14 commissioning is expected before the end of October, PV15 is expected to spud over the next few days and be online by the end of the year, the Enterprise North well and 2 Cooper Basin exploration wells are planned for 2027, targeted for the first half of next year or by midyear subject to joint venture approval, and a sub-salt well at Mt Kitty is potentially planned in early 2028 subject to joint venture approval.Central Petroleum Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 44.75M | 43.63M | 37.15M | 39.26M | 42.15M |
| Gross Profit | 1.87M | 14.54M | 4.43M | 19.14M | 14.80M |
| EBITDA | 5.43M | 16.33M | 24.06M | 3.70M | 32.39M |
| Net Income | -4.92M | 7.73M | 12.42M | -7.96M | 21.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 117.69M | 114.01M | 103.64M | 98.13M | 122.29M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.41M | 27.47M | 24.98M | 13.83M | 21.65M |
| Total Debt | 27.92M | 26.05M | 24.21M | 28.15M | 31.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 83.49M | 73.11M | 71.08M | 78.74M | 95.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 34.20M | 40.91M | 32.55M | 19.39M | 26.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.87M | 5.78M | 3.92M | -4.91M | -7.15M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.34M | 14.30M | 6.86M | -2.06M | 3.64M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.20M | -10.11M | 9.45M | -1.50M | 17.41M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.21M | -1.70M | -5.15M | -4.27M | -36.56M |
Central Petroleum Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
0.06
Price Trends
0.06
Negative
0.06
Negative
0.07
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
45.89
Neutral
95.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CTP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.06, below the 50-day MA of 0.06, and below the 200-day MA of 0.07, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CTP.
Central Petroleum Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | AU$29.32B | 27.69 | 4.69% | 3.40% | -8.49% | -31.47% | |
63 Neutral | AU$2.14B | 7.61 | 8.74% | 3.19% | -8.77% | ― | |
52 Neutral | AU$42.15M | -8.48 | -13.43% | ― | 2.57% | -163.46% | |
49 Neutral | AU$1.51B | -16.93 | -8.80% | ― | ― | 51.03% | |
46 Neutral | AU$19.02M | -3.11 | -23.11% | ― | ― | 71.52% | |
43 Neutral | AU$331.77M | -15.17 | -9.91% | ― | ― | 28.92% |
* Energy Sector Average
AU:CTP
Central Petroleum Limited
0.06
-0.01
-15.15%
AU:BPT
Beach Energy
0.94
-0.28
-22.89%
AU:BRU
Buru Energy
0.01
>-0.01
-30.00%
AU:BTL
Empire Energy Group Limited
0.22
-0.06
-22.81%
AU:STO
Santos Limited
9.05
2.85
45.90%
AU:TBN
Tamboran Resources Limited
0.19
>-0.01
-3.06%
Central Petroleum Limited Corporate Events
Central Petroleum to Brief Investors on FY2026 Results and Palm Valley Drilling
Oct 12, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited will host an online investor update presentation on 15 October 2026 to discuss its FY2026 financial results, the ongoing Palm Valley drilling program and other key operational activities. The session will be led by Managi...
Echelon Boosts Northern Territory Gas Output with Palm Valley 14 Completion
Oct 8, 2026
Echelon Resources has completed the Palm Valley 14 appraisal well as a gas producer and is tying it into the Palm Valley Production Station in the Northern Territory. The deviated well intersected extensive gas-bearing intervals in the Pacoota P1 ...
Central Petroleum advances Palm Valley 14 gas well and targets capacity recovery
Oct 8, 2026
Central Petroleum has successfully drilled the Palm Valley 14 (PV14) well in the Amadeus Basin and is completing it as a gas producer tied into the existing Palm Valley production facility. A short flow test through the rig recorded gas flows of a...
Central Petroleum Director Increases Shareholding Through Rights Exercise
Sep 30, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has reported a change in the shareholdings of non‑executive director Stephen William Gardiner following the exercise of equity incentives. Gardiner’s holdings in ordinary fully paid shares increased from 765,2...
Central Petroleum Director Increases Shareholding Through Rights Exercise
Sep 30, 2026
Central Petroleum has reported a change in director Agu Jan Kantsler’s interest following the exercise of share rights under the company’s Employee Rights Plan and a 2026 non-executive director offer previously approved by shareholders...
Central Petroleum Issues 9.9 Million Unquoted Share Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Sep 30, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has notified the market of the issue of 9,855,055 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 29 September 2026. The move reflects the company’s ongoing use of equity-based remuneration to a...
Central Petroleum Reports Lapse of 145,552 Conditional Share Rights
Sep 30, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has notified the cessation of 145,552 share rights, which lapsed after the conditional rights to securities were not satisfied or became incapable of being met as of 29 September 2026. The move slightly reduces the compan...
Central Petroleum names new CFO as cash flow set to rise
Sep 22, 2026
Central Petroleum has appointed experienced resources-sector executive Andrew Mooney as Chief Financial Officer, effective 16 November 2026, as it enters a period of expanding operations. Mooney, a Chartered Accountant with prior CFO roles at ASX-...
Central Petroleum Files Updated ASX Corporate Governance Disclosures
Sep 17, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has lodged its updated corporate governance statement and accompanying Appendix 4G with the ASX for the financial year ended 30 June 2026. The statement, current as at 15 September 2026 and approved by the board, is hoste...
Central Petroleum Tightens Governance and Diversity Framework
Sep 17, 2026
Central Petroleum Limited has articulated its commitment to high corporate governance standards in line with the ASX Corporate Governance Principles and Recommendations. The Board seeks to balance best practice with the company’s size, focus...
Central Petroleum posts FY26 loss but strengthens cash flows ahead of Palm Valley growth
Sep 17, 2026
Central Petroleum reported FY2026 underlying EBITDAX of $17.0 million and net operating cash flow of $15.6 million, as higher realised gas prices lifted operating margins despite slightly lower gas volumes and a sharp fall in oil and condensate ou...
Echelon Resources Starts Palm Valley Gas Appraisal Drilling
Jul 27, 2026
Echelon Resources has commenced drilling the Palm Valley 14 appraisal well, the first in a two-well programme in Australia’s Palm Valley permit OL3, with Ensign Rig 974 spudding PV-14 on 25 July 2026. The campaign targets the Pacoota formati...
Cue Energy Starts Palm Valley Appraisal Drilling to Boost NT Gas Supply
Jul 27, 2026
Cue Energy has commenced drilling the PV14 appraisal well, the first in a two-well program at the Palm Valley gas field in the Northern Territory, using Ensign Rig 974. The four-and-a-half-month program aims to bring first gas from PV14 to market ...
Central Petroleum Spuds Palm Valley Well and Ramps Up Otway, Cooper Exploration
Jul 27, 2026
Central Petroleum has spudded PV14, the first of two lateral appraisal wells in its Palm Valley drilling program, aiming to restore plant sales capacity to about 14 terajoules per day and deliver at least 10 petajoules of gas over the wells’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.