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Arena REIT
(Sydney:ARF)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.50
â–¼(-26.47% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/22/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance but meaningfully offset by weak cash-flow conversion (frequent negative free cash flow, including a large 2026 outflow). Technicals further pressure the rating, with price trading below all key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is a clear positive, supported by a low P/E and high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue expansion increases the rent base and supports portfolio growth. For a social-infrastructure REIT, higher recurring leasing income can improve operating scale and provide a foundation for future distributions.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Persistent negative free cash flow means operating receipts are not consistently covering investment spending. This can increase reliance on debt or asset funding and may constrain distributions when development and acquisition requirements are elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
Sustained revenue expansion increases the rent base and supports portfolio growth. For a social-infrastructure REIT, higher recurring leasing income can improve operating scale and provide a foundation for future distributions.
Read all positive factors
Arena REIT (ARF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$955.41M
Dividend Yield8.33%
Average Volume (3M)716.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.7
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth6.55%
EPS Growth44.74%
CountryAU
Employees12
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding408,296,570
10 Day Avg. Volume622,293
30 Day Avg. Volume716,118
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.96
Price to Sales (P/S)10.71
P/FCF Ratio-15.99
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.14Price Target Upside-7.52% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$103.61M
Arena REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Arena REIT is an ASX300-listed property group dedicated to the ownership, management, and development of social infrastructure assets throughout Australia. Its existing portfolio generates income through leases to a varied tenant base, predominant...
How the Company Makes Money
Arena REIT primarily makes money by owning social infrastructure properties (predominantly early learning centres) and leasing them to operating tenants. Its core revenue stream is rental income received under lease agreements, typically structure...
Arena REIT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 117.26M | 110.05M | 98.18M | 93.23M | 81.24M |
| Gross Profit | 116.35M | 101.36M | 90.43M | 86.06M | 80.67M |
| EBITDA | 147.48M | 101.36M | 91.42M | 85.64M | 61.55M |
| Net Income | 121.78M | 81.49M | 57.51M | 74.24M | 334.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.02B | 1.86B | 1.62B | 1.57B | 1.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.73M | 16.57M | 12.43M | 16.11M | 22.20M |
| Total Debt | 510.06M | 436.98M | 377.32M | 340.79M | 323.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 552.00M | 472.83M | 409.05M | 368.99M | 349.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.30B | 1.23B | 1.07B | 1.20B | 1.17B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -78.49M | 74.27M | 62.53M | -11.47M | -45.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 78.04M | 74.27M | 62.53M | 59.85M | 58.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.34M | -220.35M | -56.76M | -38.21M | -87.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 18.46M | 150.23M | -9.45M | -27.73M | 37.59M |
Arena REIT Technical Analysis
Negative
3.40
Price Trends
2.96
Negative
3.10
Negative
3.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
28.24
Positive
24.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ARF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.59, above the 50-day MA of 2.96, and above the 200-day MA of 3.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 28.24 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ARF.
Arena REIT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | AU$2.32B | 6.23 | 11.14% | 6.88% | 3.75% | 44.09% | |
74 Outperform | AU$8.91B | 8.49 | 9.83% | 4.90% | -7.59% | 178.60% | |
73 Outperform | AU$18.62B | 9.26 | 9.54% | 4.45% | -3.71% | 37.55% | |
72 Outperform | AU$373.10M | 6.83 | 15.00% | 7.80% | -5.59% | 43.56% | |
71 Outperform | AU$11.51B | 8.00 | 11.65% | 4.66% | 2.65% | 37.05% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | AU$955.41M | 7.72 | 9.31% | 5.14% | 6.55% | 44.74% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:ARF
Arena REIT
2.31
-1.52
-39.70%
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Arena REIT Corporate Events
Arena REIT posts higher FY2026 profits and navigates tenant default risk
Aug 20, 2026
Arena REIT is an Australian real estate investment trust specialising in social infrastructure, primarily early learning centres, with a fully occupied national portfolio of long-lease properties. It focuses on stable, income-generating assets bac...
Arena REIT Lifts 2026 Profit, Maintains Steady Investor Distributions
Aug 20, 2026
Arena REIT reported a strong financial performance for the year ended 30 June 2026, with total income from ordinary activities rising 39% to A$162.4 million. Net profit after tax attributable to stapled security investors increased 62% to A$131.8 ...
Arena REIT Sets Date for FY2026 Results and Investor Briefing
Aug 17, 2026
Arena REIT has announced it will release its FY2026 financial results to the ASX on 21 August 2026 and will host an investor webcast and teleconference the same day. The events will provide an overview of the company’s operating activities a...
Arena REIT delays FY2026 results as key childcare tenant defaults on rent
Aug 9, 2026
Arena REIT has disclosed that tenant Edge Early Learning, which leases 31 childcare properties and accounts for about 14% of its rental income, has missed an August rent payment after seeking rent deferrals or abatements as part of a corporate res...
Arena REIT Director Justin Bailey Increases Stake via Distribution Reinvestment Plan
Aug 6, 2026
Arena REIT has disclosed a change in the interests of director Justin Bailey, following his participation in the company’s distribution reinvestment plan. Bailey increased his direct holding of ordinary stapled securities by 1,155 units, bri...
Arena REIT Director Increases Holding via Distribution Reinvestment Plan
Aug 6, 2026
Arena REIT has reported a small increase in the equity stake held by director Helen Thornton following participation in the company’s distribution reinvestment plan. Her direct holding rose from 34,866 to 35,154 ordinary stapled securities a...
Arena REIT director boosts holding via distribution reinvestment plan
Aug 6, 2026
Arena REIT has disclosed a change in the security holdings of director Rosemary Hartnett, in line with ASX listing rule requirements for director interest notices. Hartnett’s direct holding increased from 42,911 to 43,561 ordinary stapled se...
Arena REIT Seeks ASX Quotation for New Stapled Securities
Aug 6, 2026
Arena REIT has lodged an application with the ASX for quotation of 1,661,265 fully paid stapled ordinary securities. The new securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, modestly increasing the trust’s listed unit base ...
Arena REIT details June quarter distribution and tax components
Jul 29, 2026
Arena REIT has declared a June quarter distribution of 4.8125 cents per stapled security for the period from 1 April to 30 June 2026, with a record date of 30 June and payment and DRP issue scheduled for 6 August. The distribution components are d...
Arena REIT Sets Date for FY2026 Results and Investor Briefing
Jul 8, 2026
Arena REIT has scheduled the release of its FY2026 full-year results to the ASX for Wednesday 12 August 2026, covering operating activities and financial performance for the year to 30 June 2026. The company will host an investor webcast and telec...
Arena REIT lifts portfolio value and expands early learning development pipeline
Jun 18, 2026
Arena REIT reported an expected $11.5 million uplift in portfolio valuations for the second half of FY2026, a 0.6% increase that is set to lift net asset value by $0.03 per security. The portfolio’s weighted average passing yield rose to 5.4...
Arena REIT Announces Quarterly Distribution for June 2026
Jun 18, 2026
Arena REIT has declared a quarterly distribution of AUD 0.048125 per fully paid stapled security for the period ending 30 June 2026, reinforcing its strategy of providing regular income to investors. The distribution will trade ex on 29 June, with...
Arena REIT declares June quarter distribution and activates DRP at discount
Jun 18, 2026
Arena REIT declared a quarterly distribution of 4.8125 cents per stapled security for the period ending 30 June 2026, in line with its FY26 distribution guidance. The payment schedule includes an ex-distribution date of 29 June, a record date of 3...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.