Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Risk Analysis

For a significant portion of our revenues, we rely on sales to distributors who then sell our products to end-users in our target markets. Our success depends, in part, on our maintaining satisfactory relationships with these distributors and developing new relationships in new geographies. Our distributors require us to meet expectations of delivery, quality, and pricing of our products, at both the distribution channel level and at the level of the end-user of our products. If we fail to meet expected standards, our revenues would decline and this could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition. In addition, we have been unable at times to produce sufficient amounts of our products to meet demand from our distributors and customers and we may not be able to avoid capacity constraints in the future if demand exceeds our expectations or we fail to expand our capacity in our East Providence facility or through our external manufacturing facility in China, in a timely manner. If we are unable to deliver our products within such short timeframes, we may be at risk of losing direct or end-user customers. Accordingly, shortfalls in sales could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations.

To further our product development efforts, our scientists and engineers work closely with customers and other third parties to research and develop advancements in aerogel product forms, applications, and manufacturing technologies. We have entered into agreements with private third parties to independently or jointly research, design, and develop new devices and systems that incorporate aerogel material. In some instances, the research and development activities that we conduct under contract with private third parties may produce intellectual property to which we may not have ownership or exclusive rights and will be unable to protect or monetize. Furthermore, there could be disputes between us and a private third party as to the ownership rights to any inventions that we develop in collaboration with such third party. Any such dispute may cause us to incur substantial costs including potential license obligations, and could place a significant strain on our financial resources, divert the attention of management from our core business, and harm our reputation.

Competitors or other third parties may independently develop and obtain patents covering technologies that are similar or superior to the product forms, applications or manufacturing technologies that we employ. In such event, we may need to obtain licenses for these technologies. However, we may not be able to obtain licenses on reasonable terms, if at all, which could limit our ability to manufacture our current and/or future products and operate our business.

The success of our business is highly dependent on protecting our intellectual property rights. Unauthorized parties may attempt to copy or otherwise obtain and use our products and/or enabling technology. Policing the unauthorized use of our intellectual property rights is difficult and expensive, as is enforcing these rights against unauthorized use by others. Identifying unauthorized use of our intellectual property rights is difficult because we may be unable to monitor the technologies and/or materials being employed by other parties. The steps we have taken or will take may not prevent unauthorized use of our intellectual property rights, particularly in foreign countries where enforcement of intellectual property rights may be more difficult than in the United States. Our continued commercial success will also depend in part upon not infringing the patents or violating other intellectual property rights of third parties. We are aware of patents and patent applications generally relating to aspects of our technologies filed by, and issued to, third parties. We cannot determine with certainty whether patents or patent applications of other parties may materially affect our ability to conduct our business. There may be existing patents of which we are unaware that we may inadvertently infringe, resulting in claims against us or our customers. In recent years, Chinese, Japanese and South Korean entities have filed a significant number of patent applications related to aerogel products in both their home countries and in foreign countries. These patents in application areas of aerogels may make it more difficult for OEMs and end-user customers in these countries to use our products in new and different applications, which in turn may limit our ability to penetrate new markets. In the event that the manufacture, use and/or sale of our products or technologies is challenged, or if our product forms or technologies conflict with patent rights of others, or our operations conflict with trademark or similar rights of others, third parties could bring legal actions against us in the United States, Europe or other countries, claiming damages and seeking to enjoin the manufacturing and/or marketing of our products. In addition, it is not possible to predict with certainty what patent claims may arise from pending patent applications of third parties. In the United States, for example, patent prosecution can proceed in secret prior to issuance of a patent, provided such application is not filed in a foreign jurisdiction. For U.S. patent applications that are also filed in foreign jurisdictions, such patent applications will not be published until 18 months from the filing date of the application. As a result, third parties may be able to obtain patents with claims relating to our product forms, applications and/or manufacturing processes which they could attempt to assert against us or our end-users. In the case of any of the above, litigation may be necessary to enforce, protect or defend our intellectual property rights or to determine the validity and scope of the intellectual property rights of others. Any such litigation could be unsuccessful, cause us to incur substantial costs, divert resources and the efforts of our personnel away from daily operations, harm our reputation, and/or result in the impairment of our intellectual property rights. In some cases, litigation may be threatened or brought by a patent holding company (otherwise known as non-practicing entities or patent "trolls") or other adverse patent owner who has no relevant product revenues and against which our patents may provide little or no deterrence. If we are found to infringe any patents, regardless of whether litigation is brought against us by third parties or brought by us against third parties, we could be required to: - pay substantial monetary damages, including lost profits, reasonable royalties and/or treble damages if an infringement is found to be willful;- totally discontinue or substantially modify any products or processes that are found to be in violation of another party's intellectual property rights; and/or - seek a license to continue making and selling our products and/or using our manufacturing processes, which we may not be able to obtain on reasonable terms, if at all, which could significantly increase our operating expenses and/or decrease our revenue. In the actions brought by us against third parties we may be required to pay costs and expenses of opposing parties, including attorney fees, if we lose. If our competitors are able to use our technology without payment to us, our ability to compete effectively could be materially harmed. Our contracts generally indemnify our customers for third-party claims of intellectual property infringement related to the manufacture and use of our products, and typically up to the amount of the purchase price paid for the product, which could cause us to become involved, and subject to liability, in litigation between our customers and third parties. The expense of defending these claims may adversely affect our results of operations.

In connection with our engagement of external manufacturing facilities in China, we expect to implement customary manufacturer safeguards onsite, such as the use of confidentiality agreements with employees, to protect our proprietary information and technologies during the manufacturing process of our aerogel products. However, these safeguards may not effectively prevent unauthorized use of such information and technical know-how, or prevent the external manufacturing facilities from retaining them. Although the courts in China are increasing and broadening their protection of intellectual property rights, the legal regime governing intellectual property rights in China is relatively immature and it is often difficult to create and enforce intellectual property rights or protect trade secrets there. We face risks that our proprietary information may not be afforded the same protection in China as it is in countries with well-developed intellectual property laws, and local laws may not provide an adequate remedy in the event of unauthorized disclosure of confidential information. Costly and time-consuming litigation could be necessary to enforce and determine the scope of our proprietary rights in China, and failure to obtain or maintain trade secret protection could adversely affect our competitive business position. In the event that the third-party external manufacturing facilities of our proprietary aerogel product misappropriates our intellectual property, our business, prospects and financial condition could be materially and adversely affected.

Qualification of our products by many of our direct and end-user customers can be lengthy and unpredictable and many of these direct and end-user customers have extended budgeting and procurement processes. This extended sales process requires the dedication of significant time by our personnel and our use of significant financial resources, with no certainty of success or recovery of our related expenses. Furthermore, even after an extensive qualification process, our products may fail to meet the standards sought by our end-user customers and may not be qualified for use by such end-user customers. Additionally, our continued process improvements and cost-reduction efforts may require us or the end-users to re-qualify our products. Failure to qualify or re-qualify our products may result in us losing such companies as end-users of our products, which would cause a decrease in our revenue or revenue growth rate, either of which could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations.

We are subject to numerous health and safety laws and regulations in each of the jurisdictions in which we operate. These health and safety laws and regulations apply to us including with regard to hazardous substances that we use in our manufacturing process and that certain of our products contain. These substances include titanium dioxide, ethanol, methanol and ammonia, each of which has been determined, in certain forms, with certain contaminants and at certain levels, to be hazardous, possibly carcinogenic, or otherwise harmful to humans. We may also consider and adopt the use of other hazardous substances or substances potentially containing hazardous contaminants, with similar or higher risks in connection with new products or modifications to our current products and related manufacturing. Our processes also require the use of other regulated substances in raw material delivery and manufacturing, including among others, ethanol. Applicable laws and regulations require us to obtain and maintain permits and approvals and implement health and safety programs and procedures to control risks associated with our operations. Compliance with those laws and regulations can require us to incur substantial costs. Moreover, if our compliance programs are not successful, we could be subject to penalties or to revocation of our permits, which may require us to curtail or cease operations of the affected facilities. In particular, the construction of future, potential facilities will require us to obtain and maintain new permits from various regulatory authorities and if the issuance of such permits is delayed or denied, it would slow or potentially prevent the expansion of our manufacturing capacity. Violations of laws, regulations and permit requirements may also result in criminal sanctions, injunctions and the denial or revocation of our various permits. While we use hazardous substances, including titanium dioxide, carbon black, and similar chemicals, in forms and at levels that are subject to current rules and regulations, such rules and regulations may become more stringent such that we are required to modify our manufacturing process and such that our customers' use of our products may be impacted. Regulatory changes contemplated in several regions may substantially increase these risks. Changes in the products or manufacturing processes may require the customers to perform an extensive re-qualification process, which our customers may not want to undertake for various reasons, resulting in the customer switching to competing products. In addition, changes in our production or manufacturing process may result in uses above currently permitted levels. Such uses or changes in rules or regulations could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations. Health and safety laws, regulations and permit requirements may become more stringent or otherwise change. Any such changes could require us to incur materially higher costs than at present. Our costs of complying with current and future health and safety laws, regulations and permit requirements, and any liabilities, fines or other sanctions resulting from violations of them, could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

We face several risks inherent in conducting business internationally, including compliance with applicable economic sanctions laws and regulations, such as laws and regulations administered by OFAC, the United States Department of State and the United States Department of Commerce. We must also comply with all applicable export control laws and regulations of the United States and other countries. Violations of these laws or regulations could result in significant additional sanctions including criminal or civil fines or penalties, more onerous compliance requirements, more extensive debarments from export privileges or loss of authorizations needed to conduct aspects of our international business. In certain countries, we may engage third-party agents or intermediaries, such as customs agents, to act on our behalf. If these third-party agents or intermediaries violate applicable laws, their actions may result in criminal or civil fines or penalties or other sanctions being assessed against us. We take certain measures designed to ensure our compliance with U.S. export and economic sanctions law, and we believe that we have never sold our products to Iran, Cuba, Sudan, North Korea or Syria through third-party agents or intermediaries or made any effort to attract business from any of these countries. However, it is possible that some of our products were sold or will be sold to distributors or other parties that, without our knowledge or consent, re-exported or will re-export such products to these countries. Although none of our non-U.S. distributors are located in, or to our knowledge, conduct business with Iran, Cuba, Sudan, or Syria, we may not be successful in ensuring compliance with limitations or restrictions on business with these or other countries subject to economic sanctions. There can be no assurance that we will be in compliance with export control or economic sanctions laws and regulations in the future. Any such violation could result in significant criminal or civil fines, penalties or other sanctions and repercussions, including reputational harm that could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations or financial condition.

We are subject to data protection laws and regulations that address privacy and data security. The legislative and regulatory landscape for data protection continues to evolve, and in recent years there has been an increasing focus on privacy and data security issues. In the United States, numerous federal and state laws and regulations, including state data breach notification laws, state health information privacy laws and federal and state consumer protection laws govern the collection, use, disclosure and protection of health-related and other personal information. Failure to comply with data protection laws and regulations could result in government enforcement actions, which could include civil or criminal penalties, private litigation and/or adverse publicity and could negatively affect our operating results and business. Various U.S. states now regulate the processing of personal information. For example, California was the first of an increasing number of states to enact comprehensive state privacy legislation with the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), which went into effect in January of 2020. The CCPA established a privacy framework for covered businesses by creating an expanded definition of personal information, establishing data privacy rights for California residents, requiring covered businesses to provide disclosures to California residents, and creating a statutory damages framework with the potential for severe damages for violations of the CCPA and for businesses that fail to implement reasonable security procedures and practices to prevent data breaches, as well as a private right of action for certain data breaches. Additionally in 2020, California voters passed the California Privacy Rights Act (CPRA), which went into effect on January 1, 2023. The CPRA significantly amended the CCPA, potentially resulting in further uncertainty, additional costs and expenses in an effort to comply and additional potential for harm and liability for failure to comply. Among other things, the CPRA established a new regulatory authority, the California Privacy Protection Agency, which enacts new regulations under the CPRA and has expanded enforcement authority. More U.S. states are enacting similar legislation, increasing compliance complexity and increasing risks of failures to comply. In 2023, comprehensive privacy laws in Virginia, Colorado, Connecticut, and Utah all took effect, and laws in Montana, Oregon, and Texas took effect in 2024. Laws in a number of other U.S. states took effect, or are set to take effect, in 2025, 2026, and beyond. Additional U.S. states have proposals under consideration, all of which are likely to increase our regulatory compliance costs and risks, exposure to regulatory enforcement action, and other liabilities. Likewise, the Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general have been actively enforcing laws that protect consumers from unfair and deceptive acts or practices, including with respect to privacy and security. If our public statements regarding collection, use, storage or disclosure of personal information are or are perceived to be inconsistent with our actual practices, we may face claims under Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act or state law equivalents. Numerous other countries have, or are developing, laws governing the collection, use and transmission of personal information as well. EU member states and other jurisdictions have adopted data protection laws and regulations, which impose significant compliance obligations. In the ordinary course of business, we transfer personal data from Europe and other jurisdictions to the United States or other countries and may be subject to the GDPR and UK GDPR as well as other foreign data protection laws. Europe and other jurisdictions have enacted laws requiring data to be localized or limiting the transfer of personal data to other countries and impose other restrictions on processing of sensitive personal data, including genetic information and testing. In particular, the EEA and the UK have significantly restricted the transfer of personal data to the United States and other countries whose privacy laws it generally believes are inadequate. Other jurisdictions may adopt or have already adopted similarly stringent data localization and cross-border data transfer laws. In July 2023, the European Commission adopted an adequacy decision for a new mechanism for transferring personal data from the EU to the United States, the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework, which provides EU individuals with several new rights, including the right to obtain access to their data, or obtain correction or deletion of incorrect or unlawfully handled data. In addition, the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework offers additional redress avenues for violations, including free of charge independent dispute resolution mechanisms and an arbitration panel. The UK followed the European Commission in October of 2023 and adopted its "extension" to the EU-U.S. Data Privacy Framework. The European Commission and the UK will continually review developments in the United States along with their adequacy decisions. Adequacy decisions can be adapted or even withdrawn in the event of developments affecting the level of protection in the applicable jurisdiction. Future actions of EU and UK data protection authorities are difficult to predict, and the GDPR permits EU states to frame national legislation that may derogate from the GDPR. For example, we are subject to the GDPR, the UK GDPR, and the German federal data privacy law, the Bundesdatenschutzgesetz, and we are subject to the regulatory authority of the Baden-Württemberg data protection authority, all of which could have conflicting compliance requirements. If there is no lawful manner for us to transfer personal data from the EEA, the UK or other jurisdictions to the United States, or if the requirements for a legally-compliant transfer are too onerous, we could face significant adverse consequences, including the interruption or degradation of our operations at significant expense, increased exposure to regulatory actions, substantial fines and penalties, the inability to transfer data and work with partners, vendors and other third parties, and injunctions against our processing or transferring of personal data necessary to operate our business. Additionally, companies that transfer personal data out of the EEA and UK to other jurisdictions, particularly to the United States, are subject to increased scrutiny from regulators, individual litigants, and activist groups. Some European regulators have ordered certain companies to suspend or permanently cease certain transfers out of Europe for allegedly violating the GDPR's cross-border data transfer limitations. Regulators in the United States such as the Department of Justice are also increasingly scrutinizing certain personal data transfers and, effective October of 2025, the DOJ has implemented what is known as the Bulk Transfer Rule restricting transfers of bulk sensitive personal data (like health, genomic, or financial info) and U.S. government-related data to "countries of concern" (e.g., China, Russia) or related entities, focusing on national security by preventing adversary access. It requires U.S. companies to implement data security programs, audit compliance, and maintain records, with significant penalties for violations, aiming to safeguard sensitive U.S. data from foreign adversaries. Applicable data privacy and data protection laws may conflict with each other, and by complying with the laws or regulations of one jurisdiction, we may find that we are violating the laws or regulations of another jurisdiction. Furthermore, the number of government investigations related to data security incidents and privacy violations continue to increase and government investigations typically require significant resources and generate negative publicity, which could harm our business and reputation. Despite our efforts, we may not have fully complied in the past and may not in the future. Failure to comply with current and future laws and regulations could result in government enforcement actions (including the imposition of significant penalties), criminal and civil liability for us and our officers and directors, private litigation and/or adverse publicity that negatively affects our business.

The market for insulation products utilizing aerogel blankets is relatively undeveloped. Accordingly, our future results of operations will depend in large part on our ability to gain market share of the global energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials markets as well as the EV industry. Our ability to gain market share in these markets is highly dependent on the acceptance of our products by large, well-established end-users,distributors, contractors, and OEMs. The insulation market has historically been slow to adopt new technologies and products. Most insulation types currently in use in the energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials markets were developed over 50 years ago. In addition, there is a tendency of end-users in some of our markets to opt for the lower short-term costs associated with traditional insulation materials. If we fail to educate existing and potential end-users, distributors, contractors, and OEMs of the benefits and value offered by our aerogel products, or if existing users of our products no longer rely on aerogel insulation for their insulation needs, our ability to sell our products and grow our revenue could be limited. Our business strategy also includes the development of next generation products with the performance characteristics and price points required by markets outside of the energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials markets, including the EV market. These performance and price requirements can be more demanding than those we faced in energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials markets. In the event that we are unable to develop products that meet market needs, we may be unable to penetrate such markets. In addition, the development of innovative product and manufacturing methods requires the dedication of significant human, technical and financial resources, with no certainty of success or recovery of our related investment. As a result, we may be unable to grow our business in markets outside of the energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials markets, which could adversely affect our financial performance. Because we are often a new supplier offering new types of materials to our end-user customers, we also may face concerns from these end-user customers about our reliability and our ability to produce our products in a volume sufficient to meet their supply and quality control needs. As a result, we may experience a reluctance or unwillingness by existing end-user customers to expand their use of our products and by potential end-user customers to begin using our products. Our products may never reach mass adoption, and changes or advances in technologies could adversely affect the demand for our products. A failure to increase, or a decrease in, demand for aerogel insulation products caused by lack of end-user, market or distribution channel acceptance, technological challenges or competing technologies and products would result in a lower revenue growth rate or decreased revenue, either of which could have a material adverse effect on our business and our results of operations.

Demand for a significant portion of our products and services in the energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials industry depends on the level of capital expenditure by companies in the energy industry, which depends, in part, on current and expected energy prices. Prices of oil and gas have been highly volatile in the past several years with oil prices reaching a high above $100 per barrel in mid-2014 to a low below $12 per barrel in early 2020, and in 2022, climbing to over $90 per barrel. The volatility in oil prices and declines in oil prices, which are often associated with unrelated world events, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and political instability in Ukraine, as well as the conflicts in the Middle East and tensions between China and Taiwan, and other areas in the world, have resulted, from time to time, in a reduction in capital expenditures by many companies in the energy industry, and in particular by end-users of our products involved in the construction and expansion of offshore and onshore oil and gas production facilities. Sustained lower energy prices may also reduce our energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials end-users' need to improve energy savings by using premium-priced insulation products like ours, thus reducing demand for our products and causing downward pressure on the pricing of our products. A sustained downturn in the capital expenditures of our energy industrial and sustainable insulation materials customers, whether due to periods of lower energy prices or a further decrease in the market price of oil and gas or otherwise, and including the perception that such a downturn might occur or continue, may delay capital projects, decrease demand for our products and cause downward pressure on the prices we charge for our products, which, in turn, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Such downturns, including the perception that they might occur or continue, could have a significant negative impact on the market price of our common stock.

A substantial majority of our revenue is generated from sales to a limited number of direct customers, including distributors, contractors, OEMs, partners and end-user customers. For the fiscal years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, total revenue from our top ten direct customers represented 84%, 84% and 80% of our revenues, respectively. GM and Distribution represented 59% and 9% of our total revenue in 2025, respectively; 64% and 6% of our total revenue in 2024, respectively; and 41% and 14% of our total revenue in 2023, respectively. Although the composition of our significant distributors, contractors, OEMs, partners and end-user customers will vary from period to period, we expect that most of our revenues will continue, for the foreseeable future, to come from sales to a relatively small number of direct customers. In addition, we understand from our direct customers that a substantial majority of their sales of our products are to a small number of end-user customers. Our direct customer concentration also creates accounts receivable concentrations and related risks. As of December 31, 2025, GM and Distribution accounted for 41% and 13% of our accounts receivable, respectively. A substantial amount of our expected sales in the EV market in 2026 are expected to be to a single customer. The substantial majority of our sales to distributors are transacted on a purchase order basis. The contracts we enter into with our direct customers generally do not include long-term commitments or minimum volumes that ensure future sales of our products. In addition, we understand that our direct customers' contracts with end-user customers also generally do not include such commitments or minimums. Consequently, our results of operations may fluctuate significantly from period-to-period based on the actions of one or more significant direct customers or end-user customers. A direct customer may take actions that affect us for reasons that we cannot anticipate or control, such as reasons related to an end-user customer's financial condition, contractual arrangements with end-user customers, changes in business strategy or operations, the introduction of alternative competing products, or as the result of the perceived quality or cost-effectiveness of our products. Our agreements with these direct customers may be canceled if we fail to meet certain product specifications or materially breach the agreement or for other reasons outside of our control. In addition, our direct customers may seek to renegotiate the terms of current agreements upon maturity or renewal. The loss of, or a reduction in sales or anticipated sales to, one or more of our significant direct customers or end-user customers or several of our smaller direct customers or end-user customers could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Our insulation products are technologically advanced and require a precise and complex manufacturing process. Because of the precision and complexity of this manufacturing process and the high-performance characteristics of our products, from time to time we have had difficulty in consistently producing products that meet applicable specifications and technical and delivery requirements, including our customer and end-user specifications and requirements. In the future we, or our third-party external manufacturing facilities in China, may have difficulty in consistently producing products that meet applicable specifications and technical and deliver requirements. At certain times in the past, the growth in demand for our products has contributed to this difficulty by putting significant pressure on our management, our personnel and our production facilities. Furthermore, we seek to lower our manufacturing costs, while maintaining appropriate performance characteristics, and to improve the per square foot costs of our silica aerogel blankets by optimizing our formulations to reduce material costs. Any failure to meet the specifications for our products as a result of our attempts to optimize our formulations, or otherwise, or technical and delivery requirements could result in the termination of existing customer contracts or purchase orders, the elimination or reduction of future purchase orders, the impairment of customer relationships, and the incurrence of financial, contractual or other liabilities. Products that do not meet these specifications or requirements may also expose us to warranty and product liability claims and associated adverse publicity. Any such termination, reduction, impairment, liability or publicity could result in a broader loss of existing customers and revenues and delay the execution of our business plans, disrupt our operations and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.