Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $478.67M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 35.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: 89.64%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 554
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 82,104,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,256,133
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,614,558
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $15.00
• Price Target Upside: 172.73% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

Aspen Aerogels' overall score reflects strong financial improvements and operational efficiency, offset by high valuation and technical pressures. The earnings call acknowledged key growth drivers but also highlighted potential challenges such as halted expansion and tariff risks. While the company shows promise, the stock's current technical and valuation metrics suggest a cautious approach.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up 46% annually and representing its fifth consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA.

Growth Potential

Aspen has strong growth potential beyond 2027 through numerous OEM relationships, a competitive moat, a strong balance sheet, and potential for healthy FCF.

Strategic Partnerships

The 8th OEM award announced with Volvo trucks.

Negative Factors

Downgrade and Market Concerns

The rating for Aspen Aerogels, Inc. was downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to low visibility on program needs and margin vulnerability.

Guidance and Visibility

Aspen Aerogels guided revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and EPS below the Street for 1Q, and withheld providing guidance for FY25 citing lack of visibility into production demand.

Market Demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is an advanced materials company that designs, develops, and manufactures aerogel insulation products. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts, the company operates primarily in the energy infrastructure, building materials, and electric vehicle markets. Its products are used for thermal management in a variety of applications, offering significant energy efficiency and performance benefits.

How the Company Makes Money

Aspen Aerogels generates revenue through the sale of its proprietary aerogel insulation products. The company serves a diverse range of industries including oil and gas, petrochemical, building materials, and automotive sectors. Key revenue streams come from direct product sales to industrial customers and distributors. Aspen Aerogels also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations with major industry players to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. The company's pricing strategy and revenue are influenced by factors such as raw material costs, manufacturing efficiencies, and market demand for energy-efficient insulation solutions.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels has shown considerable improvement in financial performance. The company enjoys a strong revenue growth rate of 89.6% and has turned its net profit margin positive at 2.95%. The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17. However, the ROE is modest at 2.17%, and free cash flow remains negative, indicating room for improvement in cash flow management.

Income Statement

Aspen Aerogels has shown significant improvement in its financial performance over the TTM. The gross profit margin stands at 40.4%, indicating efficient production cost management. The net profit margin has turned positive to 2.95% from negative figures in previous years, reflecting improved overall profitability. Revenue growth rate is robust at 89.6%, showcasing strong top-line growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are at 12.64% and 31.55% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency gains. Although past years showed losses, the current trajectory is positive.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial structure with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, indicating conservative leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) at 2.17% shows an initial positive return, though still modest. The equity ratio is strong at 68.65%, signifying a solid equity base. The company has been able to maintain a healthy cash position, aiding in financial stability. However, the company should continue to focus on improving ROE to enhance shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Aspen Aerogels has demonstrated improved cash flow management. The free cash flow growth rate has improved but remains negative, indicating ongoing investments or working capital needs. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.74, suggesting reasonable cash generation relative to income. Despite negative free cash flow, the company has been able to finance its operations through positive financing cash flow, likely from equity or debt issuance. Continued focus on generating positive free cash flow is recommended.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
	Gross Profit
182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
	EBIT
54.53M	-49.20M	-79.25M	-40.60M	-21.57M
	EBITDA
49.57M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
	Total Assets
895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
	Total Debt
102.42M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
	Net Debt
-118.46M	-951.00K	-154.68M	-61.33M	-8.19M
	Total Liabilities
280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
	Stockholders Equity
614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
	Operating Cash Flow
45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
	Financing Cash Flow
122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 5.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.34, below the 50-day MA of 6.36, and below the 200-day MA of 15.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPIH	75 Outperform	$107.76M	12.03	13.03%	―	5.12%	-14.55%
ASPN	68 Neutral	$478.67M	35.31	2.43%	―	89.64%	―
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.25B	11.72	5.24%	249.79%	4.07%	-9.45%
JBI	62 Neutral	$1.02B	15.17	13.56%	―	-9.61%	-47.79%
SWIM	56 Neutral	$695.82M	77.89	-4.54%	―	-10.23%	-600.45%
JELD	45 Neutral	$358.54M	―	-53.32%	―	-14.12%	―
CSTE	44 Neutral	$85.35M	―	-14.60%	―	-21.59%	60.24%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Aspen Aerogels Approves Equity and Stock Purchase Plans

On April 30, 2025, Aspen Aerogels held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the reserved shares by 3,850,000 and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, the Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, authorizing 4,000,000 shares for eligible employees to purchase at a discount. These approvals reflect the company’s strategic focus on enhancing employee engagement and aligning shareholder interests, potentially strengthening its market position.

Spark’s Take on ASPN Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ASPN is a Neutral.

Aspen Aerogels is showing a positive financial trajectory with strong revenue growth and improved profitability, particularly in the PyroThin Thermal Barriers segment. However, technical indicators suggest the stock is currently under pressure, and valuation metrics indicate moderate pricing. The earnings call highlights both significant achievements and potential risks, such as halted expansion plans and tariff challenges, influencing the overall stock score.

To see Spark’s full report on ASPN stock, click here.

Aspen Aerogels Achieves Financial Turnaround in FY 2024

Aspen Aerogels reported a significant financial turnaround in FY 2024 with revenues increasing by 90% to $452.7 million, and a net income of $13.4 million compared to a loss in the previous year. The company also secured a contract to supply PyroThin Thermal Barriers for Volvo Truck and optimized its manufacturing strategy by utilizing external facilities, halting the Statesboro plant project, and maximizing its existing plant’s capacity to meet growing demand.