Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) AI Stock Analysis

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Aspen Aerogels

(NYSE:ASPN)

Rating:53Neutral

Price Target:

$6.50

▲(13.44%Upside)

Aspen Aerogels exhibits strong strategic positioning and revenue growth potential but faces significant profitability challenges. The technical indicators are mixed, and valuation metrics are weak due to ongoing losses. Strategic initiatives discussed in the earnings call and recent contracts provide some optimism, but immediate financial risks remain a concern.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow

Strong free cash flow in the fourth quarter of 2024 with a cash balance of $228 million at the end of January.

Financial Performance

Aspen reported 4Q24 results that mostly beat consensus estimates, with total revenue up significantly from the previous year.

Strategic Partnerships

The 8th OEM award announced with Volvo trucks.

Negative Factors

Guidance

Lower than expected first quarter 2025 guidance with shifting EV policy leading to a pause in providing annual guidance.

Market Demand

Weaker EV demand results in a reset for 2025 with management electing to end construction at the Georgia plant.

Rating Downgrade

The rating for Aspen Aerogels, Inc. was downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to low visibility on program needs and margin vulnerability.

Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$470.86M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.75M

Price to Earnings (P/E)35.3

Beta (1Y)1.95

Revenue Growth51.90%

EPS Growth-685.60%

CountryUS

Employees554

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength84

IndustryConstruction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-3.67

Shares Outstanding82,174,355

10 Day Avg. Volume1,221,326

30 Day Avg. Volume1,747,983

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.04

Price to Book (P/B)1.04

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-1.70

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.66

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.19

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.81

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.84

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$8.50

Price Target Upside48.34% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAspen Aerogels, Inc. is a technology leader in aerogel-based insulation solutions, primarily serving the energy infrastructure and building materials sectors. The company specializes in manufacturing high-performance aerogel insulation products that offer superior thermal performance, fire protection, and energy efficiency. With a commitment to innovation, Aspen Aerogels' products are used in a variety of applications, including industrial, building, and transportation sectors.

How the Company Makes MoneyAspen Aerogels generates revenue through the sale of its advanced aerogel insulation products. These products are primarily marketed to industries that benefit from high-efficiency insulation, such as oil and gas, chemical processing, and building construction. The company capitalizes on the increasing demand for energy-efficient and environmentally friendly insulation solutions. Additionally, Aspen Aerogels may engage in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its product offerings and market reach, further contributing to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as technological advancements, regulatory standards promoting energy efficiency, and the overall growth in infrastructure development projects.

Aspen Aerogels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Chart InsightsAspen Aerogels is experiencing robust revenue growth in the United States and Latin America, driven by strategic initiatives like the GM PyroThin award and supply chain diversification. However, Asia's revenue is declining, possibly due to market saturation or competitive pressures. Despite a 17% year-over-year revenue decline, the company is focusing on cost optimization and new OEM opportunities, setting the stage for potential long-term growth. The earnings call highlights strategic achievements but also underscores immediate financial challenges, such as declining gross margins and net income losses.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Aspen Aerogels Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 0.70%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Aspen Aerogels showed promise with significant strategic achievements such as the GM award and supply chain optimization, but faced challenges including a notable revenue decline, reduced gross margins, and a significant net income loss. The company's strategic cost-cutting measures and financial stewardship are encouraging but were overshadowed by the immediate financial setbacks.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Major PyroThin Award with GM

Aspen Aerogels secured a major PyroThin award with General Motors for a next-generation prismatic EV platform, reinforcing its role in the electrification ecosystem.

Record Level Quoting Activity

The PyroThin thermal barrier business experienced a record level of quoting activity, indicating continued investment by leading OEMs in future battery electric platforms.

Resilient and Flexible Supply Chain

Aspen successfully diversified its raw material supply chain and created a second source for aerogel, optimizing sourcing from Asia, Europe, and the United States.

Strategic Cost Optimization

The company aims to reduce fixed cash costs to 2022 levels and lower the revenue level required for positive adjusted EBITDA performance to approximately $245 million.

Strong Financial Stewardship

Aspen reduced its interest expenses by paying down over $20 million of debt and maintaining a cash balance of $192 million.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline

Q1 2025 revenue was $78.7 million, representing a 17% year-over-year decline, with a 25% decrease in EV thermal barrier revenue.

Gross Margin Decline

Company-level gross margins were down to 29%, with the EV thermal barrier business achieving only 23% gross margins, below the target of 35%.

Net Income Loss

Aspen reported a negative net income of $301.2 million in Q1 2025, including significant impairment and restructuring costs.

Inventory Destocking

The Energy Industrial business experienced destocking in its distribution channel, impacting revenue.

Company Guidance

During the Aspen Aerogels First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic actions. Aspen reported a Q1 revenue of $78.7 million, a 17% year-over-year decline, with the Energy Industrial segment increasing by 2% to $29.8 million and the EV thermal barrier segment decreasing by 25% to $48.9 million. Gross profit margins were at 29%, and the company recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $4.9 million. Aspen is targeting to reduce fixed cash costs to 2022 levels, aiming to lower the revenue required for adjusted EBITDA breakeven to approximately $245 million. For Q2, Aspen forecasts revenue between $70 million and $80 million, with potential adjusted EBITDA ranging from breakeven to $7 million. The company emphasized its focus on long-term growth through diversifying its supply chain, optimizing cost structures, and pursuing new OEM opportunities, setting the stage for potential revenue expansion in 2027 with significant contributions from new contracts.

Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aspen Aerogels exhibits a mixed financial performance. Despite substantial revenue growth, significant profitability challenges remain, with negative net income and EBIT. Cash flow constraints persist due to high capital expenditures, although operating cash flow shows some improvement. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, but asset and equity sustainability are concerns.

Income Statement

Neutral

Aspen Aerogels shows a volatile income statement with fluctuating revenues and profitability challenges. The TTM data reports a negative net income and EBIT, indicating profitability issues. However, there was a significant revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, showcasing potential for revenue expansion. Margins remain a concern due to consistently negative EBIT and EBITDA margins.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio. Stockholders' equity has been relatively stable, suggesting a degree of balance sheet resilience. However, the decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity in the TTM period raises concerns about asset and equity sustainability moving forward.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with free cash flow, which has been negative. The operating cash flow has been improving but remains insufficient to cover capital expenditures consistently. The TTM data shows improved operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains an area of concern due to high capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	436.92M	452.70M	238.72M	180.36M	121.62M	100.27M
Gross Profit	170.57M	182.90M	56.92M	4.98M	9.94M	14.59M
EBITDA	-155.65M	51.46M	-22.31M	-65.77M	-25.81M	-11.37M
Net Income	-286.07M	13.38M	-45.81M	-86.23M	-27.88M	-11.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	554.98M	895.14M	703.05M	646.57M	182.95M	97.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	192.04M	220.88M	139.72M	281.33M	76.56M	16.50M
Total Debt	180.88M	197.38M	138.77M	126.66M	15.24M	8.31M
Total Liabilities	240.14M	280.44M	214.99M	203.23M	54.55M	29.57M
Stockholders Equity	314.83M	614.71M	488.06M	447.44M	128.41M	67.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-4.47M	-40.71M	-218.07M	-272.37M	-32.41M	-13.34M
Operating Cash Flow	68.93M	45.55M	-42.61M	-94.40M	-18.63M	-9.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-73.40M	-86.26M	-175.46M	-177.97M	-13.78M	-3.42M
Financing Cash Flow	95.79M	122.02M	75.48M	478.37M	92.47M	26.20M

Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price5.73

Price Trends

50DMA

5.77

Negative

100DMA

6.84

Negative

200DMA

12.23

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.01

Positive

RSI

44.89

Neutral

STOCH

26.71

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.03, below the 50-day MA of 5.77, and below the 200-day MA of 12.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASPN.

Aspen Aerogels Risk Analysis

Aspen Aerogels disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Aerogels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPIH	77 Outperform	$177.57M	14.40	17.42%	―	9.97%	-4.70%
JBI	75 Outperform	$1.15B	23.67	9.51%	―	-13.95%	-63.37%
SWIM	64 Neutral	$747.08M	77.89	-4.13%	―	-5.58%	-465.52%
Sector *	63 Neutral	kr62.26B	12.48	1.54%	13.93%	0.04%	-3.90%
ASPN	53 Neutral	$470.86M	35.31	-70.97%	―	51.90%	-685.60%
CSTE	45 Neutral	$72.22M	―	-17.84%	―	-20.34%	53.57%
JELD	41 Neutral	$333.52M	―	-55.39%	―	-14.12%	-1264.86%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ASPN

Aspen Aerogels

5.73

-18.84

-76.68%

CSTE

CaesarStone Sdot-Yam

2.09

-2.90

-58.12%

PPIH

Perma-Pipe International Holdings

22.24

13.16

144.93%

JELD

JELD-WEN

3.84

-9.16

-70.46%

JBI

Janus International Group

8.23

-4.53

-35.50%

SWIM

Latham Group

6.27

3.15

100.96%

Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Aspen Aerogels Secures PyroThin Contract Amid Q1 Loss

Negative

May 8, 2025

Aspen Aerogels reported a first-quarter 2025 revenue of $78.7 million, down from $94.5 million in the same period last year, and a net loss of $301.2 million, largely due to a $286.6 million impairment charge related to the demobilization of a planned manufacturing plant. Despite these challenges, the company secured a PyroThin contract with a leading American OEM for a future vehicle platform, showcasing its strategic focus on expanding its thermal barrier and energy industrial segments, optimizing costs, and strengthening its supply chain.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy

Aspen Aerogels Approves Equity and Stock Purchase Plans

Positive

May 1, 2025

On April 30, 2025, Aspen Aerogels held its Annual Meeting where stockholders approved the Amended and Restated 2023 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the reserved shares by 3,850,000 and extending the plan’s term to 2035. Additionally, the Employee Stock Purchase Plan was approved, authorizing 4,000,000 shares for eligible employees to purchase at a discount. These approvals reflect the company’s strategic focus on enhancing employee engagement and aligning shareholder interests, potentially strengthening its market position.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 18, 2025