Ares Management (ARES) Risk Analysis

As of the date of this Quarterly Report, there is an ongoing outbreak of a novel and highly contagious form of coronavirus ("COVID-19"), which the World Health Organization has declared a global pandemic, the United States has declared a national emergency and every state in the United States is under a federal disaster declaration. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in numerous deaths, adversely impacted global commercial activity and contributed to significant volatility in equity and debt markets. Many countries and states in the United States, including those in which we, our funds' and our funds' portfolio companies operate, have issued orders requiring the closure of, or certain restrictions on the operation of, nonessential businesses and/or requiring residents to stay at home. The COVID-19 pandemic and preventative measures taken to contain or mitigate its spread have caused, and are continuing to cause, business shutdowns or the re-introduction of business shutdowns, cancellations of events and restrictions on travel, significant reductions in demand for certain goods and services, reductions in business activity and financial transactions, supply chain interruptions and overall economic and financial market instability both globally and in the United States. Such measures, as well as the general uncertainty surrounding the dangers and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, have created significant disruption in supply chains and economic activity and are having a particularly adverse impact on the energy, hospitality, travel, retail and restaurant industries, as well as other industries, including industries in which certain of our funds' portfolio companies operate. Such effects will likely continue for the duration of the pandemic, which is uncertain, and for some period thereafter. While several countries, as well as certain states, counties and cities in the United States, have relaxed the public health restrictions with a view to partially or fully reopening their economies, recurring COVID-19 outbreaks have led to the re-introduction of such restrictions in certain states in the United States and globally and could continue to lead to the re-introduction of such restrictions elsewhere. Additionally, the absence or delay of viable treatment options or a vaccine could lead people to continue to self-isolate and not participate in the economy at pre-pandemic levels for a prolonged period of time. Even after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, the U.S. economy and most other major global economies may continue to experience a recession, and we anticipate our and our funds' business and operations could be materially adversely affected by a prolonged recession in the U.S. and other major markets. The extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our and our funds' operational and financial performance will depend on many factors, including the duration, severity and scope of the public health emergency, the actions taken by governmental authorities to contain its financial and economic impact, the continued implementation of travel advisories and restrictions, the impact of such public health emergency on overall supply and demand, goods and services, investor liquidity, consumer confidence and levels of economic activity and the extent of its disruption to global, regional and local supply chains and economic markets, all of which are uncertain and difficult to assess. The COVID-19 pandemic is continuing as of the filing date of this Quarterly Report and its extended duration may have further adverse impacts on our business, financial performance, operating results, cash flows and financial condition, including the market price of shares of our securities, including for the reasons described below. The effects of a public health emergency may materially and adversely impact our value and performance and the value and performance of our funds and our funds' portfolio companies. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may not be fully reflected in the valuation of our or our funds' investments, which may differ materially from the values that we may ultimately realize with respect to such investments. Our valuations, and particularly valuations of our interests in our funds and our funds' investments, reflect a moment in time, are inherently uncertain, may fluctuate over short periods of time and are often based on subjective estimates, comparisons and qualitative evaluations of private information. Valuations, on an unrealized basis, can also be significantly affected by a variety of external factors including, but not limited to, public equity market volatility, industry trading multiples and interest rates, all of which have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, the extreme volatility in the broader market and particularly in the energy markets has led to a broad decrease in valuations and such valuations may continue to decline and become increasingly difficult to ascertain. As a result, our valuations and the valuations of our interests in our funds and our funds' investments, may not show the complete or continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting measures taken in response thereto. Accordingly, we and our funds may continue to incur additional net unrealized losses or may incur realized losses in the future, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Any public health emergency, including the COVID-19 pandemic or any outbreak of other existing or new epidemic diseases, or the threat thereof, and the resulting financial and economic market uncertainty could have a significant adverse impact on us, the fair value of our and our funds' investments and could adversely impact our funds' ability to fulfill our investment objectives. Our ability to market and raise new or successor funds may be impacted by the shelter-in-place orders, travel restrictions and social distancing requirements implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This may lower or delay anticipated fee revenues. In addition, the significant volatility and declines in valuations in the global markets as well as liquidity concerns may impact our ability to raise funds or deter fund investors from investing in new or successor funds that we are marketing. Our funds may experience a slowdown in the pace of their investment activity and capital deployment, which could also adversely affect the timing of raising capital for new or successor funds and could also impact the management fees we earn on funds that generate fees based on invested (and not committed) capital. While the increased volatility in the financial markets caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may present attractive investment opportunities, we or our funds may not be able to complete those investments due to, among other factors, increased competition or operational challenges such as our ability to obtain attractive financing, conduct due diligence and consummate the acquisition and disposition of investments for our funds because of shelter-in-place orders, travel restrictions and social distancing requirements. If the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and current market conditions continue, we and our funds may have fewer opportunities to successfully exit investments, due to, among other reasons, lower valuations, decreased revenues and earnings, lack of potential buyers with financial resources or access to financing to pursue an acquisition, lack of refinancing markets, resulting in a reduced ability to realize value from such investments at attractive valuations or at all, and thereby negatively impacting our realized income. Adverse market conditions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic may impact our liquidity. Our cash flows from management fees may be impacted by, among other things, a slowdown in fundraising or delayed deployment. ARCC Part I Fees may be subject to cash payment deferral if certain return hurdles are not met, which could have an adverse effect on our cash flows. Adverse market conditions may make it difficult for us to refinance our existing indebtedness or obtain new indebtedness with similar terms and any failure to do so could have a material adverse effect on our business. The capital that will be available to us in the future, if at all, may be at a higher cost and on less favorable terms and conditions than we currently experience. While our senior professionals have historically made co-investments in our funds alongside our limited partners, thereby reducing our obligation to make such investments, due to financial uncertainty or liquidity concerns, our employees may be less likely to make co-investments, which would result in such general partner commitments remaining our obligation to fund and reducing our liquidity. In addition, our funds may be impacted due to failure by our fund investors to meet capital calls, which would negatively impact our funds' ability to make investments or pay us management fees. The COVID-19 pandemic is having a particularly severe impact on certain industries, including but not limited to the energy, hospitality, travel, retail and restaurant industries, which are industries in which some of our funds have made investments. As of September 30, 2020, approximately 2% of our total AUM was invested in the energy (including oil and gas exploration and midstream investments) sector and approximately 2% in the retail sector that were challenged from the market disruption and volatility seen in the recent past as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of our funds' portfolio companies in these industries are facing operational and financial hardships resulting from the spread of COVID-19 and related governmental measures, such as the closure of stores, hotels, restaurants and other sites, restrictions on travel, quarantines or stay-at-home orders. As a result of these disruptions, the businesses, financial results and prospects of certain of these portfolio companies have already been severely affected and could continue to be so affected. This may result in potential impairment and decrease in value of our funds' investments, which may be material. Our funds' portfolio companies are also facing or may face in the future increased credit and liquidity risk due to volatility in financial markets, reduced or eliminated revenue streams, and limited or higher cost of access to preferred sources of funding. Changes in the debt financing markets are impacting, and, if the volatility in financial markets continues, may in the future impact, the ability of our funds' portfolio companies to meet their respective financial obligations and continue as going concerns. This could lead to the insolvency and/or bankruptcy of these companies which would cause our funds to realize losses in respect of those investments. Any of the foregoing would adversely affect our results of operations, perhaps materially, and could harm our reputation. Our funds may experience similar credit and liquidity risk. Failure of our funds to meet their financial obligations could result in our funds being required to repay indebtedness or other financial obligations immediately in whole or in part, together with any attendant costs, and our funds could be forced to sell some of their assets to fund such costs. Our funds could lose both invested capital in, and anticipated profits from, the affected investment. Borrowers of loans and other credit instruments made by our funds may be unable to make their loan payments on a timely basis and meet their loan covenants, and tenants leasing real estate properties owned by our funds may not be able to pay rents in a timely manner or at all, resulting in a decrease in value of our funds' credit and real estate investments and lower than expected returns. In addition, for variable interest instruments, lower reference rates resulting from government stimulus programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to lower interest income for funds making loans. The COVID-19 pandemic may adversely impact our business and operations since an extended period of remote working by our employees could strain our technology resources and introduce operational risks, including heightened cybersecurity risk. While we have taken steps to secure our networks and systems, remote working environments may be less secure and more susceptible to hacking attacks, including phishing and social engineering attempts that seek to exploit the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, our data security, data privacy, investor reporting and business continuity processes could be impacted by a third party's inability to perform due to the COVID-19 pandemic or by failures of, or attacks on, their information systems and technology. Also, our accounting and financial reporting systems, processes, and controls could be impacted as a result of these risks. In addition, COVID-19 presents a significant threat to our employees' well-being and morale, and we may experience potential loss of productivity. If our senior management or other key personnel become ill or are otherwise unable to perform their duties for an extended period of time, we may experience a loss of productivity or a delay in the implementation of certain strategic plans. In addition to any potential impact of such extended illness on our operations, we may be exposed to the risk of litigation by our employees against us for, among other things, failure to take adequate steps to protect their well-being, particularly in the event they become sick after a return to the office. Further, local COVID-19-related laws can be subject to rapid change depending on public health developments, which can lead to confusion and make compliance with laws uncertain and subject us, our funds or our funds' portfolio companies to increased risk of litigation for non-compliance. Regulatory oversight and enforcement may become more rigorous for the financial services industry and other regulated industries as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial markets, especially in the wake of the array of governmental financial assistance programs provided by state and national governments around the world. In addition, new laws or regulations that are passed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic could adversely impact investment management firms. This may result in a more complex regulatory, tax and political environment, which could subject us to increased compliance costs and administrative burdens.