Aperam SA (APEMY) AI Stock Analysis

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Aperam SA

(Other OTC:APEMY)

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Rating:44Neutral

Price Target:$38.00▼(-0.29% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/11/26

The overall score of 44 is heavily pressured by a severe cyclical downturn in Aperam's core European stainless steel business. The most significant factors are the sustained deterioration in financial performance, with razor-thin margins and declining cash flow, and a bearish technical trend with the stock trading well below all major moving averages. The earnings call confirmed significant near-term headwinds from energy costs and weak demand, overshadowing the company's solid balance sheet and attractive 6% dividend yield. Long-term strategic targets and trade defense measures provide a potential floor, but the timing of a recovery remains highly uncertain.

Positive Factors

Positive cash generationStrong positive operating and free cash flow gives Aperam internal funding for maintenance, transformation and debt reduction. Although FCF momentum has weakened, ongoing cash conversion improves resilience during steel-cycle volatility and reduces reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

Thin cyclical profitabilityCurrent profitability remains modest and materially below prior peak-cycle performance, showing sensitivity to steel pricing, product mix and input costs. Thin margins leave less buffer when market conditions weaken and can constrain returns even when revenue growth is positive.

Aperam SA (APEMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.81B
Dividend Yield: 6.15%
Average Volume (3M): 381
Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.2
Beta (1Y): 1.07
Revenue Growth: 4.21%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: US
Employees: 13,000
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Steel

Aperam SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aperam S.A., along with its affiliated companies, operates globally as a manufacturer and vendor of stainless and specialized steel products. Its business activities are organized into three primary divisions: Stainless & Electrical Steel, Services &...

How the Company Makes Money

Aperam primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling steel products—especially stainless and specialty steels—to industrial and commercial customers. Revenue is generated mainly from (1) sales of stainless steel flat products (e.g., coils, sheet...

Aperam SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-1.09%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The call presented a mixed outlook. Aperam highlighted EUR 325 million of nine-month EBITDA, unchanged long-term EBITDA targets, ongoing benefits from trade defense, expected net debt reduction, stable Brazilian demand, and progress in its transformation. However, European underlying demand remains low, energy costs are creating a EUR 20 million quarterly headwind, Q4 profitability is expected to decline, and alloys and oil and gas markets remain below planned run rates. The positive strategic and financial targets were balanced by significant near-term operating challenges.

Positive Updates

Nine-Month EBITDA and Long-Term Targets Reaffirmed

Aperam reported EUR 325 million of EBITDA for the first nine months of 2026. Management reaffirmed its target of reaching EUR 700 million of EBITDA by the end of 2028, with EUR 800 million possible with an upcycle in the market.

Negative Updates

European Underlying Demand Remains Low

Management said there has been no underlying demand improvement in Europe for the past six quarters. Real demand has remained at a low but stable level since August 2025, and customer improvements in PMI have not yet translated into order books.

Company Guidance

Aperam reiterated that its 2026 guidance assumes “no underlying demand improvement” in Europe; Q4 stainless guidance is “down,” with the EUR 20 million energy impact at “full run rate Q4” and “per quarter starting Q4 every quarter.” The metal margin improvement from trade measures remains EUR 75 per ton, with another EUR 125 per ton to come when demand picks up, versus EUR 200 per ton “over the cycle.” Utilization retains a 7% uplift, “rather 7% now than the upper end of the range we mentioned, 10%,” from a 65%, 66% base. Aperam does not give guidance for 2027, but reiterated its target of EUR 700 million EBITDA and, “with an upcycle in the market, EUR 800 million by the end of 2028”; net debt should be lower at end of 2026 than end of 2025, with a target of “1x to EBITDA” at end of 2027. For alloys, it reiterated EUR 100 million, EUR 65 million from Universal Stainless and Alloy Products at “full run rate,” and EUR 25 million of synergies “over five years.”

Aperam SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is under severe pressure, with a score of 42 reflecting a sharp, sustained deterioration in profitability and cash generation. The income statement shows razor-thin net margins of 2.5% and a dramatic decline from peak earnings, while free cash flow has contracted significantly. The balance sheet is a relative strength, with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39, providing a critical buffer against the cyclical downturn.

Income Statement

28Negative

Balance Sheet

62Positive

Cash Flow

35Negative

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.13B	6.08B	6.25B	6.59B	8.16B	5.10B
Gross Profit	1.77B	341.00M	449.00M	330.00M	1.18B	1.23B
EBITDA	392.00M	247.00M	354.00M	364.00M	960.00M	1.20B
Net Income	155.00M	9.00M	231.00M	203.00M	625.00M	968.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.36B	6.21B	5.84B	6.21B	6.26B	5.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	305.00M	324.86M	216.00M	443.00M	457.00M	524.00M
Total Debt	1.28B	1.30B	760.00M	934.00M	925.00M	990.00M
Total Liabilities	2.06B	3.00B	2.47B	2.76B	2.87B	2.96B
Stockholders Equity	3.28B	3.19B	3.35B	3.44B	3.38B	2.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	250.68M	273.75M	125.00M	170.00M	346.00M	398.00M
Operating Cash Flow	390.29M	405.34M	280.00M	471.00M	642.00M	550.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-154.46M	-565.75M	-155.00M	-303.00M	-297.00M	-183.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-258.12M	267.99M	-336.00M	-152.00M	-419.00M	-197.00M

Aperam SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price38.11

Price Trends

50DMA45.19Negative

100DMA48.93Negative

200DMA48.95Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-1.84Negative

RSI36.86Neutral

STOCH67.81Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APEMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 38.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.39, below the 50-day MA of 45.19, and below the 200-day MA of 48.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.84 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APEMY.

Aperam SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

APEMY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CRS	68Neutral	$14.84B	25.58	26.93%	0.28%	10.21%	38.28%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PKX	60Neutral	$15.21B	18.00	2.31%	3.09%	0.76%	144.37%
MT	54Neutral	$48.21B	45.90	1.91%	0.96%	3.25%	-27.63%
MTUS	50Neutral	$717.08M	29.72	3.43%	―	10.81%	―
APEMY	44Neutral	$2.75B	16.16	4.77%	6.15%	4.21%	―
WS	42Neutral	$1.97B	-65.60	-2.72%	1.68%	69.13%	-132.01%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

APEMY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
APEMY	Aperam	38.11	3.96	11.61%
MT	ArcelorMittal	62.79	23.82	61.14%
CRS	Carpenter Technology Corp	291.57	-39.92	-12.04%
PKX	Posco	50.09	-3.50	-6.53%
MTUS	Metallus Inc.	16.94	1.36	8.73%
WS	Worthington Steel, Inc.	38.05	7.75	25.57%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2026

Aperam SA AI Stock Analysis