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Alliance Entertainment Holding
(NASDAQ:AENT)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(17.97% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/12/26
The score is held back primarily by financial performance concerns—especially the 2026 swing to negative operating and free cash flow and the business’s thin margins—despite a much improved balance sheet. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call indicated strong operational momentum and constructive forward direction, while technicals are moderately supportive but mixed versus the 200-day trend. Valuation appears only fair-to-stretched (P/E ~25.5) given cash-flow and margin risk.
Positive Factors
Broad-based growth
The fiscal-year results show growth extending beyond a single quarter, with revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, and adjusted earnings all increasing. This broad-based improvement suggests stronger operating execution and supports reinvestment in premium formats, fulfillment, and newer strategic capabilities.
Negative Factors
Negative cash conversion
The latest reversal to negative operating and free cash flow weakens earnings quality and can increase dependence on working-capital financing. If the pressure persists, Alliance may have less internally generated cash available for inventory, technology investment, debt reduction, or other growth priorities.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-based growth
The fiscal-year results show growth extending beyond a single quarter, with revenue, gross profit, EBITDA, and adjusted earnings all increasing. This broad-based improvement suggests stronger operating execution and supports reinvestment in premium formats, fulfillment, and newer strategic capabilities.
Read all positive factors
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$327.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)281.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.5
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth8.04%
EPS Growth-13.38%
CountryUS
Employees697
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryMedia & Entertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.25
Shares Outstanding50,979,630
10 Day Avg. Volume820,470
30 Day Avg. Volume281,489
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.68
Price to Book (P/B)2.55K
Price to Sales (P/S)259.04
P/FCF Ratio-107.29K
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.50Price Target Upside54.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.15B
Alliance Entertainment Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation operates as a wholesaler and e-commerce provider for the entertainment industry worldwide. It offers vinyl records, video games, digital video discs, blu-rays, toys, compact discs, collectibles, and other...
How the Company Makes Money
AENT primarily makes money by selling entertainment and related products on a wholesale basis and by providing distribution and fulfillment services. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Wholesale distribution revenue: purchasing products fr...
Alliance Entertainment Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive trajectory: strong top-line growth (Q3 +21%), notable category wins (CDs +90%, Collectibles +48%, vinyl +15%), and substantial year-to-date earnings expansion (YTD net income +78%, adjusted EBITDA +47%). Management is executing strategic initiatives—platform authentication, owned brands and expanded licensing—that should enhance longer-term margins and engagement. Near-term headwinds include quarter-level gross margin compression, modest quarterly EBITDA growth relative to revenue due to targeted investments, higher inventory tied to timing and the early-stage nature of platform businesses. Overall, the positive operational and financial momentum, ample liquidity, and clear strategic roadmap outweigh the execution and timing risks highlighted.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Revenue Growth
Net revenue for Q3 was $258.0M, up 21% year-over-year from $213.0M, driven by broad-based strength across core categories.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Gross Margin Compression
Q3 gross margin declined to 12.8% from 13.6% a year ago (down ~80 basis points) with gross profit of $33.0M vs $29.1M, attributed to category and product mix (greater contribution from some lower-margin categories as revenue scaled).
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Revenue Growth
Net revenue for Q3 was $258.0M, up 21% year-over-year from $213.0M, driven by broad-based strength across core categories.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave directional (not numeric) forward guidance: they remain confident in the trajectory and expect continued revenue growth and earnings expansion driven by Premium Physical Media and higher‑value Collectibles, citing Q3 and YTD metrics as the basis — Q3 net revenue $258M (+21% YoY), net income $2.3M ($0.05/diluted, +25%), adjusted EBITDA ~$5.1M (+4%); category results included Vinyl $99M (+15%), CDs $39M (+90%), Physical Movie $61M (+5%), and Collectibles +48%; nine‑month results were net revenue $881M (+5%), gross profit $117.3M (gross margin 13.3%, +170 bps), net income $16.6M ($0.32, +78%) and adjusted EBITDA $35.7M (+47%); the company closed the quarter with ~ $60M working capital and ~$56M revolver availability, expects near‑term product catalysts (Project Hail Mary in August and Grand Theft Auto in Q4) to be “home runs,” and said Alliance Authentic/Endstate will scale in fiscal ’27 with upcoming encapsulation rollouts and commercial deals that would signal meaningful contribution.Alliance Entertainment Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Sep 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.15B | 1.06B | 1.10B | 1.16B | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 152.32M | 132.85M | 128.89M | 103.93M | 182.38M |
| EBITDA | 41.20M | 34.62M | 19.98M | -26.12M | 60.01M |
| Net Income | 13.06M | 15.08M | 4.58M | -35.40M | 28.62M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 397.60M | 361.23M | 340.81M | 389.53M | 473.04M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 814.00K | 1.24M | 1.13M | 865.00K | 1.47M |
| Total Debt | 19.48M | 90.94M | 109.83M | 155.71M | 152.04M |
| Total Liabilities | 280.98M | 258.01M | 253.18M | 310.00M | 364.11M |
| Stockholders Equity | 116.62M | 103.22M | 87.63M | 79.53M | 108.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.77M | 26.75M | 55.59M | 2.56M | -83.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.70M | 26.81M | 55.77M | 3.39M | -83.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.02M | -8.13M | -117.00K | -824.00K | -50.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.30M | -18.57M | -55.39M | -3.16M | 81.04M |
Alliance Entertainment Holding Technical Analysis
Positive
5.51
Price Trends
5.66
Positive
6.02
Positive
6.48
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
68.15
Neutral
65.33
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AENT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.45, below the 50-day MA of 5.66, and below the 200-day MA of 6.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AENT.
Alliance Entertainment Holding Risk Analysis
Alliance Entertainment Holding disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alliance Entertainment Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alliance Entertainment Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $327.29M | 25.54 | 11.30% | ― | 8.04% | -13.38% | |
60 Neutral | $502.01M | -25.89 | -2.03% | ― | -4.59% | 87.95% | |
45 Neutral | $52.53M | -3.77 | -27.24% | ― | 6.28% | -410.92% | |
45 Neutral | $443.00M | -1.02 | -82.08% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | $34.32M | -5.60 | -6.90% | 3.90% | 3.22% | -19.05% | |
43 Neutral | $54.64M | -2.25 | 114.87% | ― | -23.12% | 13.43% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
AENT
Alliance Entertainment Holding
6.42
-0.72
-10.08%
AMCX
AMC Networks
12.17
3.81
45.57%
CNVS
Cineverse
2.21
-1.04
-32.00%
GAIA
Gaia
1.35
-4.82
-78.12%
LVO
LiveOne
3.99
-1.27
-24.10%
STRZ
Starz Entertainment Corp
25.87
10.92
73.04%
Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alliance Entertainment Posts Strong Fiscal 2026 Growth
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, Alliance Entertainment reported net revenues up 8% to $1.15 billion, with gross profit rising 15% and gross margin expanding 80 basis points to 13.3%, while adjusted EBITDA grew 14% to $41.5 million and adj...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alliance Entertainment Voids Unapproved Charter Amendment, Restores Prior Certificate
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Alliance Entertainment Holding filed a Third Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation in Delaware that would have eliminated the voting rights of its Class E common stock, except where voting is required by law. On Augus...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alliance Entertainment Updates Charter, Alters Voting Structure
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
On June 24, 2026, majority stockholders of Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation, including trusts associated with Executive Chairman Bruce Ogilvie and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Walker, executed a written consent to fully amend and rest...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alliance Entertainment Strips Class E Shares of Voting Rights
Neutral
Jun 29, 2026
On June 24, 2026, majority stockholders of Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation, including trusts associated with Executive Chairman Bruce Ogilvie and CEO Jeffrey Walker, used written consent to approve a sweeping amendment to the company...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.