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Autodesk
(NASDAQ:ADSK)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$229.00
▼(-8.84% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (profitability and free-cash-flow generation) and a constructive earnings update (raised guidance, margin targets, and buybacks). These positives are meaningfully tempered by weak technicals (price well below key moving averages with depressed momentum) and a valuation that is more mid-range than cheap, with additional near-term execution/margin risks tied to MaintainX and regional sales reorganization.
Positive Factors
Recurring subscription model
A subscription-led model provides recurring revenue visibility and supports durable customer relationships around mission-critical design workflows. High renewal rates, multi-year contracts, bundled collections, and cloud add-ons can encourage account expansion and make Autodesk’s revenue base more resilient over time.
Negative Factors
Moderate leverage has increased
Rising leverage reduces financial flexibility relative to the company’s prior annual position and increases exposure to interest, refinancing, and execution risk. Although profitability and cash generation are strong, a smaller equity base can amplify volatility if operating performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring subscription model
A subscription-led model provides recurring revenue visibility and supports durable customer relationships around mission-critical design workflows. High renewal rates, multi-year contracts, bundled collections, and cloud add-ons can encourage account expansion and make Autodesk’s revenue base more resilient over time.
Read all positive factors
Autodesk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue by region (e.g., Americas, EMEA, APAC) to reveal market concentration, growth pockets, and exposure to local economic or currency risks. Geographic trends show where Autodesk’s products are gaining traction and where macro or regulatory shifts could materially affect results.
Breaks down revenue by region (e.g., Americas, EMEA, APAC) to reveal market concentration, growth pockets, and exposure to local economic or currency risks. Geographic trends show where Autodesk’s products are gaining traction and where macro or regulatory shifts could materially affect results.
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The Fly
The FlyAutodesk (ADSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$44.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.5
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth18.70%
EPS Growth59.41%
CountryUS
Employees14,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.76
Shares Outstanding209,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume2,061,248
30 Day Avg. Volume1,939,634
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.51
Price to Book (P/B)17.69
Price to Sales (P/S)7.47
P/FCF Ratio22.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$309.71Price Target Upside23.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering23
EPS Forecast (FY)12.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.32B
Autodesk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Autodesk, Inc. delivers advanced software and services for 3D design, engineering, and entertainment to a global clientele. Their diverse product line includes AutoCAD Civil 3D, a comprehensive solution for civil engineering tasks such as land dev...
How the Company Makes Money
Autodesk primarily makes money by selling subscriptions to its software and cloud services. The company’s largest revenue stream is recurring subscription revenue from named-user licenses for its core design applications (e.g., AutoCAD for CAD dra...
Autodesk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q2-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: the company delivered stronger‑than‑expected Q2 results (revenue +16% reported, billings +10% reported), raised full‑year billings and revenue guidance, showed margin expansion and healthy free cash flow, and closed a strategic MaintainX acquisition that extends Autodesk into operations and strengthens its AI/data strategy. Offsetting factors include sales reorganization impacts in Western Europe, near‑term margin dilution and integration costs from MaintainX (an unprofitable, high‑growth asset), temporary revenue timing effects from reduced multiyear discounts, and some currency/transactional mix headwinds. Management emphasized discipline, continued buybacks, and long‑term margin targets, and reiterated confidence in underlying demand (notably construction and Fusion). Overall, positive operational momentum and strategic positioning outweigh the near‑term integration and mix headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Above Guidance
Total revenue grew 16% year‑over‑year as reported and 14% in constant currency in Q2, with revenue and EPS coming in above the high end of guidance. Management noted ~2 percentage points of tailwind to Q2 revenue from the new transaction model and ~1.5 percentage points tailwind expected for the full year.
Negative Updates
Sales Reorganization Impact and Regional Variability
The sales reorganization continued to impact new subscription growth; management said outcomes remained within the expected range but noted that the Americas, APAC and some EMEA regions normalized earlier than Western Europe, where new‑business productivity remains slower to fully recover.
Read all updates
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth Above Guidance
Total revenue grew 16% year‑over‑year as reported and 14% in constant currency in Q2, with revenue and EPS coming in above the high end of guidance. Management noted ~2 percentage points of tailwind to Q2 revenue from the new transaction model and ~1.5 percentage points tailwind expected for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Autodesk raised its fiscal 2027 outlook, now guiding billings of $8.575–$8.65 billion and revenue of $8.295–$8.345 billion (guidance includes ~6 months of MaintainX), with MaintainX expected to contribute roughly $70 million of billings and $60 million of revenue to the second half; management noted the new transaction model gave ~2 percentage points of revenue tailwind in Q2 and ~1.5 points for the full year. GAAP operating margin guidance was revised to 25%–27% (Q2 GAAP was 29%), non‑GAAP operating margin guidance was unchanged (about 39% in FY27; Q2 non‑GAAP was 41%) and Autodesk remains on track for 41% non‑GAAP in FY29. Free cash flow was narrowed to $2.725–$2.75 billion (including ~ $45 million of MaintainX transaction expenses), stock‑based compensation is expected to be ~9% of revenue in FY27 (down from ~11% in FY26), the company repurchased ~2.1 million shares for $453 million in Q2 and expects FY27 buybacks to be similar in dollars to FY26 while applying ~50% of free cash flow to repurchases.Autodesk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.79B | 7.21B | 6.13B | 5.50B | 5.00B | 4.39B |
| Gross Profit | 7.11B | 6.56B | 5.55B | 4.99B | 4.53B | 3.97B |
| EBITDA | 2.31B | 1.80B | 1.56B | 1.27B | 1.17B | 789.20M |
| Net Income | 1.64B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 906.00M | 823.00M | 497.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.98B | 12.47B | 10.83B | 9.91B | 9.44B | 8.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.16B | 2.60B | 1.89B | 2.25B | 2.07B | 1.76B |
| Total Debt | 3.71B | 2.73B | 2.56B | 2.63B | 2.67B | 3.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.60B | 9.42B | 8.21B | 8.06B | 8.29B | 7.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.38B | 3.04B | 2.62B | 1.85B | 1.15B | 849.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.83B | 2.41B | 1.50B | 1.28B | 2.02B | 1.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.90B | 2.45B | 1.61B | 1.31B | 2.07B | 1.53B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -78.00M | -451.00M | -903.00M | -502.00M | -143.00M | -1.59B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -723.00M | -1.36B | -987.00M | -852.00M | -1.49B | -168.60M |
Autodesk Technical Analysis
Neutral
251.21
Price Trends
232.25
Negative
228.76
Positive
245.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.97
Positive
46.86
Neutral
21.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADSK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 251.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 240.57, above the 50-day MA of 232.25, and above the 200-day MA of 245.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ADSK.
Autodesk Risk Analysis
Autodesk disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Autodesk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Autodesk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $44.39B | 29.50 | 52.50% | ― | 18.70% | 59.41% | |
72 Outperform | $14.19B | 13.16 | 32.64% | ― | 19.50% | 143.45% | |
70 Outperform | $79.69B | 55.15 | 22.88% | ― | 14.70% | 36.13% | |
67 Neutral | $19.35B | -31.95 | -18.85% | ― | 13.98% | -27.86% | |
66 Neutral | $8.09B | -217.73 | -3.13% | ― | 15.41% | 73.03% | |
65 Neutral | $9.36B | 34.46 | 24.10% | 0.88% | 12.85% | 14.73% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADSK
Autodesk
228.93
-92.14
-28.70%
CDNS
Cadence Design
279.06
-72.46
-20.61%
PTC
PTC
136.65
-67.50
-33.06%
U
Unity Software
43.45
-3.08
-6.62%
BSY
Bentley Systems
31.70
-20.61
-39.40%
PCOR
Procore Technologies
56.74
-14.27
-20.10%
Autodesk Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Autodesk Validates Newly Issued Notes in Bond Offering
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
Autodesk disclosed that its counsel, Wilson Sonsini Goodrich Rosati, issued a legal opinion dated September 10, 2026 confirming the legality of the company’s newly issued notes. The filing also records related transaction documents, includi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Autodesk Posts Strong Q2 Results, Raises 2027 Outlook
Positive
Aug 27, 2026
On August 27, 2026, Autodesk reported strong results for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, ended July 31, 2026, with revenue up 16% year over year to $2.05 billion and billings rising 10% to $1.85 billion, driven by double‑digit growth acro...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Autodesk Completes Acquisition of MaintainX to Expand Capabilities
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Autodesk, Inc. completed its previously announced acquisition of MaintainX Inc., a deal executed under a merger agreement signed on May 28, 2026. The transaction, carried out through Autodesk’s wholly owned subsidiary Matt...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Autodesk Warns of Financing Risks Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Negative
Jul 13, 2026
Autodesk disclosed risk factors indicating that certain planned transactions might not be completed, highlighting potential challenges related to the availability, timing, and cost of financing, including through its commercial paper program. The ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Autodesk Shareholders Reinforce Board, Approve Governance Measures
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
At its recent Annual Meeting, Autodesk shareholders elected eleven directors, including CEO Andrew Anagnost and several other incumbents, to serve one-year terms on the Board, indicating broad investor support for the current leadership. The meeti...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Autodesk Secures New Credit Agreement to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
Jun 15, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Autodesk, Inc. entered into a new credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders and Citibank, N.A. acting as administrative agent, while simultaneously executing Amendment No. 1 to an existing credit agreement. These financing arr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.