ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) AI Stock Analysis

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:ACAD)

72Outperform

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals receives a strong overall stock score driven by robust financial performance, profitability, and strategic growth plans. The company's transition to profitability, significant revenue growth, and strong cash position are major strengths. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, which could impact short-term stock performance. Valuation metrics suggest potential undervaluation, though the absence of a dividend yield is a drawback for some investors. Earnings call insights reflect positive sentiment about future growth, despite some guidance challenges.

Positive Factors

Product Sales

Nuplazid sales guidance significantly above expectations, boosting confidence in the company's growth potential.

Revenue Growth

The company remains well positioned with a stable base business with revenues expected to cross $1B for the first time.

Negative Factors

Expense Management

2025 SG&A/R&D spending guidance was above expectations, raising concerns about cost management and profitability.

Sales Guidance

2025 Daybue sales guidance was lower than expected, indicating potential challenges in meeting market expectations.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.43B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.60M

Price to Earnings (P/E)10.7

Beta (1Y)1.09

Revenue Growth31.85%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees653

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength53

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.11

Shares Outstanding167,333,360

10 Day Avg. Volume1,477,507

30 Day Avg. Volume1,596,755

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.69

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$25.29

Price Target Upside70.76% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering17

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of innovative medicines to address unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders. The company operates within the healthcare sector, primarily targeting neurological and psychiatric conditions. Its flagship product, NUPLAZID (pimavanserin), is approved for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis.

How the Company Makes MoneyACADIA Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the sales of its commercial product, NUPLAZID. The company focuses on expanding the drug's market presence by seeking additional indications for use, thereby increasing its potential patient base. ACADIA also engages in strategic partnerships and collaborations to enhance its research and development capabilities, which may result in milestone and royalty payments. Furthermore, the company invests in ongoing clinical trials to develop new products and extend the utility of existing ones, aiming to diversify its revenue streams in the future.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Product

Revenue by Product
Shows earnings from individual products, highlighting which offerings drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This helps assess product portfolio strength and market positioning.

Chart InsightsACADIA Pharmaceuticals is experiencing robust growth driven by DAYBUE's rapid market penetration and NUPLAZID's steady performance. DAYBUE's sales surged by 97% in 2024, reflecting its strong adoption, while NUPLAZID's revenue increased by 11%, supported by strategic initiatives like direct-to-consumer campaigns. The company anticipates continued revenue growth in 2025, despite potential challenges from pricing and regulatory uncertainties. Global expansion efforts, including anticipated EMA approval for trofinetide, underscore ACADIA's commitment to broadening its market reach and enhancing its pipeline in neuroscience and rare diseases.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has demonstrated a strong financial performance with significant improvements across income, balance sheet, and cash flow metrics. The company has transitioned to profitability with robust revenue and profit growth, maintained a stable balance sheet with low leverage, and improved cash flow metrics indicating solid cash generation capabilities.

Income Statement

Very Positive

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has shown a strong improvement in its income statement. The gross profit margin for 2024 is robust at 91.47%, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin also turned positive to 23.64%, indicating profitability compared to losses in previous years. Revenue grew by 31.87% from 2023 to 2024, a strong upward trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins both improved to 24.09%, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is solid with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, suggesting low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) is remarkable at 30.90%, indicating effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is at a healthy 61.69%, reflecting a strong equity position. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates stability with low risk due to minimal debt.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals has shown significant improvement in cash flow metrics. The free cash flow growth rate is substantial, turning from negative to positive free cash flow of $157 million in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.70, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, demonstrating strong cash conversion efficiency.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
957.80M	726.44M	517.24M	484.14M	441.75M
	Gross Profit
875.96M	680.71M	507.07M	465.00M	421.20M
	EBIT
230.79M	-73.38M	-223.60M	-170.44M	-286.59M
	EBITDA
100.16M	-67.83M	-221.57M	-167.09M	-286.59M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
226.45M	-61.29M	-215.97M	-167.87M	-281.58M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
755.99M	438.87M	416.82M	520.71M	631.96M
	Total Assets
1.19B	748.96M	587.81M	700.12M	782.62M
	Total Debt
51.99M	57.20M	62.00M	56.13M	44.46M
	Net Debt
-267.59M	-131.45M	-52.85M	-91.31M	-281.57M
	Total Liabilities
454.96M	317.20M	187.40M	159.23M	155.61M
	Stockholders Equity
732.79M	431.75M	400.41M	540.89M	627.01M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
157.20M	-23.35M	-114.03M	-126.78M	-143.75M
	Operating Cash Flow
157.72M	16.70M	-114.03M	-125.66M	-136.17M
	Investing Cash Flow
-30.54M	32.00M	73.24M	-71.10M	192.51M
	Financing Cash Flow
6.84M	25.13M	8.20M	18.16M	81.00M

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price14.81

Price Trends

50DMA

16.15

Negative

100DMA

17.18

Negative

200DMA

16.68

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.37

Negative

RSI

45.39

Neutral

STOCH

57.71

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACAD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.67, below the 50-day MA of 16.15, and below the 200-day MA of 16.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ACAD.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACAD	72 Outperform	$2.43B	10.69	38.89%	―	31.85%	―
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.23B	3.70	-41.86%	2.84%	16.58%	-0.16%
APLS	50 Neutral	$2.40B	―	-103.82%	―	97.02%	64.32%
IMVT	45 Neutral	$2.68B	―	-74.17%	―	―	-43.10%
MLTX	41 Neutral	$2.52B	―	-25.24%	―	―	-147.80%
MRUS	41 Neutral	$2.73B	―	-42.88%	―	-17.78%	-10.95%
IBRX	39 Underperform	$1.77B	―	78.99%	―	2270.58%	46.82%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ACAD

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

14.81

-2.32

-13.54%

IBRX

ImmunityBio

1.89

-6.03

-76.14%

MRUS

Merus

39.43

-7.66

-16.27%

APLS

Apellis Pharmaceuticals

17.99

-24.31

-57.47%

IMVT

Immunovant

13.88

-15.88

-53.36%

MLTX

MoonLake Immunotherapeutics

37.60

-5.03

-11.80%

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 0.00%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial results, pipeline expansion, and global growth plans, but also acknowledged challenges in revenue guidance due to pricing and regulatory uncertainties. Despite these hurdles, the company remains optimistic about its future growth and strategic initiatives.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Record quarterly revenues with DAYBUE sales reaching $96.7 million in Q4, up 11% year-over-year, and full-year sales at $348.4 million, up 97% from 2023. NUPLAZID sales hit $162.9 million in Q4, up 13% year-over-year, with full-year sales at $609.4 million, up 11%.

Pipeline Expansion

Introduction of ACP-711 for essential tremor and the addition of a second indication for ACP-204 in Lewy Body Dementia Psychosis. A broader pipeline with programs spanning neuroscience and rare diseases was disclosed.

Global Expansion Plans

Submission of a marketing application with the European Medicines Agency for trofinetide, anticipating EMA approval in Q1 2026. First DAYBUE sales in Canada expected in Q3 2025 and plans for managed access programs in Europe.

Financial Guidance for 2025

Total revenues expected to be in the range of $1.03 billion to $1.095 billion. DAYBUE U.S. net sales are projected to be between $380 million and $405 million, while NUPLAZID sales are expected to range from $650 million to $690 million.

Strong Cash Position

Ending 2024 with a cash balance of $756 million, up from $438.9 million at the end of 2023, primarily driven by cash flows from operations and the sale of a priority review voucher.

Negative Updates

Revenue Guidance Challenges

DAYBUE's guidance accounts for potential sequential decline in Q1 due to seasonality and pricing adjustments. NUPLAZID's guidance is wider due to uncertainties related to Medicare Part D redesign.

Increased SG&A Expenses

SG&A expenses increased to $488.4 million in 2024 from $406.6 million in 2023, driven by marketing costs and one-time CEO transition expenses.

Regulatory and Competitive Landscape Concerns

Potential challenges in obtaining EU approval and achieving favorable reimbursement for DAYBUE. Competitive landscape for Prader-Willi syndrome treatment could impact future market positioning.

Company Guidance

During the ACADIA Pharmaceuticals conference call, leadership provided a comprehensive overview of the company's fiscal performance for 2024 and guidance for 2025. The company reported total revenues of $957.8 million in 2024, reflecting a 32% increase year-over-year, with DAYBUE and NUPLAZID contributing $348.4 million and $609.4 million, respectively. DAYBUE achieved a 97% increase in sales compared to 2023, while NUPLAZID saw an 11% increase. ACADIA projected 2025 total revenues to range from $1.03 billion to $1.095 billion, with DAYBUE expected to generate $380 million to $405 million in U.S. net sales and NUPLAZID anticipated to bring in $650 million to $690 million. The company highlighted a 15% quarter-over-quarter improvement in DAYBUE patient discontinuations and a 13% year-over-year growth in NUPLAZID's fourth-quarter sales. ACADIA also discussed strategic initiatives to drive growth, including expanding commercial leadership and launching direct-to-consumer campaigns. Additionally, the company outlined plans for international expansion, with EMA approval for trofinetide anticipated in the first quarter of 2026, and emphasized the depth and potential of its pipeline across neuroscience and neuro rare diseases.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Announces Leadership Change Amid COO Departure

Negative

Nov 20, 2024

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. announced the involuntary termination of Brendan Teehan, its Executive Vice President and COO, effective immediately, with plans for him to assist in transitioning his duties until the end of 2024. During this period, CEO Catherine Owen Adams will take over his responsibilities, leveraging her extensive 30-year experience in the pharmaceutical sector.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.