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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:ACAD)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
▼(-8.41% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/25/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability inflection and a low-leverage balance sheet) and a positive earnings backdrop with raised DAYBUE guidance and multiple catalysts. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technical momentum, mixed recent remlifanserin trial results (primary endpoint miss), and cash-flow variability/margin pressure signals (gross-to-net and rising SG&A).
Positive Factors
Commercial growth
Both marketed products are contributing to growth, reducing reliance on a single commercial asset. DAYBUE is scaling rapidly while NUPLAZID continues to expand through higher volume and prescriptions, supporting durable revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Remlifanserin efficacy uncertainty
The primary-endpoint miss increases uncertainty around remlifanserin’s probability of success despite positive secondary-endpoint and safety observations. Continued Phase III development may preserve upside, but equivocal efficacy evidence could delay or reduce the pipeline’s contribution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Commercial growth
Both marketed products are contributing to growth, reducing reliance on a single commercial asset. DAYBUE is scaling rapidly while NUPLAZID continues to expand through higher volume and prescriptions, supporting durable revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Shows earnings from individual products, highlighting which offerings drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This helps assess product portfolio strength and market positioning.
Shows earnings from individual products, highlighting which offerings drive growth and which may need strategic adjustments. This helps assess product portfolio strength and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.41B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)1.17
Revenue Growth11.75%
EPS Growth68.42%
CountryUS
Employees797
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.25
Shares Outstanding172,305,510
10 Day Avg. Volume2,644,156
30 Day Avg. Volume2,055,336
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)3.69
Price to Sales (P/S)4.22
P/FCF Ratio43.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.06
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.29Price Target Upside8.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.62
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.27B
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company, primarily dedicated to discovering, developing, and commercializing small molecule therapeutics. Their core focus lies in addressing critical unmet medical needs within the realm...
How the Company Makes Money
ACADIA primarily makes money through product revenue from the commercial sale of its FDA-approved medicines, recorded as net product sales after deductions such as wholesaler/distributor fees, rebates (e.g., government and commercial payor rebates...
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial momentum and clear near-term catalysts: robust Q2 results (total revenues +17%), pronounced DAYBUE STIX uptake (DAYBUE +30% YoY), healthy NUPLAZID growth (+10% YoY) with new prescriptions up 20%, a positive CHMP opinion for trofinetide in Europe, and significant pipeline progress (remlifanserin Phase II enrollment complete, Fast Track designation, top-line data expected Sep–Oct 2026). Offsetting factors include rising SG&A, sizable gross‑to‑net adjustments (~24%), a lowered R&D spend guidance due to a shifted BD milestone, reimbursement and pricing uncertainties in Europe, and dependency on upcoming pivotal readouts (creating execution/timing risk). Overall, the positives — strong sales, upgraded DAYBUE guidance, regulatory wins and a deepening pipeline with imminent binary catalysts — outweigh the operational and timing risks presented.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Financial Performance
Total revenues of $308 million in Q2 2026, representing +17% year-over-year on an adjusted basis; company now guiding full-year 2026 revenues of $1.24 billion to $1.30 billion.
Negative Updates
Rising Operating Costs
SG&A expenses increased to $160 million in Q2 from $134 million a year ago (+~19%), driven by expanded field forces and higher marketing investments; R&D rose to $82 million from $78 million (+~5%).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Financial Performance
Total revenues of $308 million in Q2 2026, representing +17% year-over-year on an adjusted basis; company now guiding full-year 2026 revenues of $1.24 billion to $1.30 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ACADIA raised its 2026 DAYBUE guidance to $480–$510M (from $460–$490) while keeping NUPLAZID at $760–$790M, implying total 2026 revenue of $1.24–$1.30B; Q2 results included total revenues of $308M (+17% adjusted YoY), DAYBUE net sales $125M (+30% YoY; ~27% of the increase from volume; ~40% of U.S. DAYBUE patients on STIX by quarter‑end and strong June STIX referral momentum), NUPLAZID net sales $183M (+10% adjusted YoY; 8% volume growth; new patient prescriptions +20% YoY and >12,000 priority HCPs reached since February), Q2 gross‑to‑net of 24.4% for DAYBUE and 23.9% for NUPLAZID (DAYBUE FY gross‑to‑net now guided to 23–25%), operating spend highlights of R&D $82M and SG&A $160M in Q2 with R&D guidance lowered to $355–$380M (from $385–$410M) due to a shifted BD milestone, cash of $956M, and pipeline timing/guidance that includes remlifanserin Phase II top‑line in Sept–Oct (Phase II enrollment 363; 80% powered to a 0.4 effect size; peak sales est. ~$4B, ~60% ADP/40% LBD), trofinetide Japan readout Sept–Nov and expected initial EU commercial sales/Q4 pending EC decision after a positive CHMP opinion, plus longer‑term ambitions of $700M DAYBUE and ~$1B NUPLAZID in 2028.ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.07B | 957.80M | 726.44M | 517.24M | 484.14M |
| Gross Profit | 1.04B | 982.51M | 875.96M | 680.71M | 507.07M | 465.00M |
| EBITDA | 116.12M | 150.66M | 100.16M | -45.48M | -211.42M | -164.18M |
| Net Income | 380.48M | 391.00M | 226.45M | -61.29M | -215.97M | -167.87M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.74B | 1.56B | 1.19B | 748.96M | 587.81M | 700.12M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 956.47M | 819.69M | 755.99M | 438.87M | 416.82M | 520.71M |
| Total Debt | 73.85M | 52.19M | 51.99M | 57.20M | 62.00M | 64.43M |
| Total Liabilities | 436.29M | 336.81M | 454.96M | 317.20M | 187.40M | 159.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.31B | 1.23B | 732.79M | 431.75M | 400.41M | 540.89M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 174.39M | 105.15M | 157.20M | -23.35M | -114.03M | -126.78M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 194.30M | 109.84M | 157.72M | 16.70M | -114.03M | -125.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.19M | -302.56M | -30.54M | 32.00M | 73.24M | -71.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 51.05M | 49.88M | 6.84M | 25.13M | 8.20M | 18.16M |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Negative
30.57
Price Trends
26.34
Negative
24.94
Negative
24.21
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.14
Positive
19.58
Positive
19.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACAD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.86, above the 50-day MA of 26.34, and above the 200-day MA of 24.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.58 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACAD.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.35B | 12.87 | 20.06% | ― | 24.25% | -0.83% | |
73 Outperform | $3.41B | 8.79 | 32.39% | ― | 11.75% | 68.42% | |
52 Neutral | $3.53B | -7.69 | -43.98% | ― | -100.00% | -33.88% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
48 Neutral | $5.40B | -132.04 | 21.72% | ― | -42.84% | -106.21% | |
45 Neutral | $1.82B | -2.60 | -1328.94% | ― | ― | 39.33% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Acadia Reports Phase 2 Data for Alzheimer’s Psychosis
Positive
Sep 24, 2026
On September 24, 2026, Acadia Pharmaceuticals reported Phase 3 enabling topline data from the Phase 2 RADIANT trial of remlifanserin in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis. The 60 mg once-daily dose showed a numerically greater reduction in halluc...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Reaches Preliminary Derivative Lawsuit Settlement
Negative
Sep 11, 2026
On August 24, 2026, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California preliminarily approved a settlement of a stockholder derivative action and related Section 220 books-and-records and litigation demands brought on behalf of Acadia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.