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Tilray (TLRY)
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Tilray (TLRY) AI Stock Analysis

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TLRY

Tilray

(NASDAQ:TLRY)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(16.28% Upside)
Tilray's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and liquidity issues being the most impactful factors. While the earnings call provided some positive insights into revenue growth and debt reduction, the technical analysis and valuation remain weak, contributing to a lower overall score.
Positive Factors
International Expansion
Tilray's expansion into Panama through a joint venture enhances its international footprint, potentially increasing revenue and market share in the growing medical cannabis sector.
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth, particularly in the cannabis segment, indicates strong demand and effective market strategies, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Balance Sheet Strength
Improved debt management and strong cash reserves enhance financial stability, providing Tilray with flexibility to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability issues reflect operational inefficiencies and market challenges, potentially hindering Tilray's ability to sustain long-term growth.
Cash Flow Issues
Negative cash flows indicate poor cash conversion and liquidity challenges, which could limit Tilray's capacity to fund operations and strategic initiatives.
Lower Gross Margins
Declining gross margins suggest cost pressures and pricing challenges, which may impact profitability and competitive positioning in the long term.

Tilray (TLRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tilray Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTilray, Inc. is a global leader in the cannabis industry, focusing on the production, distribution, and sale of medical and recreational cannabis products. Established in 2013, Tilray operates in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, wellness, and consumer packaged goods. The company offers a diverse range of products, including dried cannabis, oils, and edibles, catering to both medical patients and adult consumers across several international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyTilray generates revenue primarily through the sale of cannabis products, including dried flower, oils, and edibles, which are sold to both medical and recreational consumers. The company has established key revenue streams through its direct-to-consumer sales, partnerships with distributors and retailers, and international exports of medical cannabis products. Additionally, Tilray has formed strategic alliances with other companies in the cannabis and pharmaceutical sectors, which enhance its market reach and product offerings. The company's ongoing focus on research and development also positions it to capitalize on emerging trends in the cannabis market, contributing to its earnings potential.

Tilray Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 09, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced perspective with significant achievements in revenue growth and international expansion countered by challenges in the Beverage segment and permitting delays in Portugal.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Revenue
Tilray achieved a record net revenue of $210 million for Q1 fiscal year 2026, representing a 5% increase year-over-year.
Strengthened Balance Sheet
Reduced outstanding debt by $7.7 million and maintained a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.07x, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $265 million.
Growth in Cannabis Segment
Cannabis revenue grew 5% year-over-year to $65 million, with Canadian Adult-Use and International Cannabis business delivering 12% and 10% growth respectively.
Expansion in International Markets
International cannabis revenue grew 10% to $13.4 million, with strategic growth plans to triple the medical cannabis distribution footprint in Germany.
Beverage Business Turnaround
Project 420 resulted in $25 million in annual savings, with notable growth in brands like Shock Top, which saw a 49% increase in dollar sales in the Southeast.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Beverage Segment
Beverage revenue remained flat due to SKU rationalization and lower gross margins, with a decrease in gross margin to 38% from 41% last year.
Permitting Issues in Portugal
Delays in obtaining permits in Portugal affected the ability to ship cannabis to other countries, impacting international growth.
Lower Gross Margins
Overall gross margin declined to 27% from 30% due to lower margins in the Cannabis and Beverage segments.
Company Guidance
During the conference call for Tilray Brands' first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company reported a net income of $1.5 million with earnings per share of $0. They achieved a 5% increase in total revenue, reaching a record $210 million, driven by significant growth in their Canadian Adult-Use and International Cannabis business, which grew by 12% and 10%, respectively. The company also reduced its outstanding debt by $7.7 million, resulting in a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.07x, and maintained strong cash reserves with $265 million in cash and cash equivalents. Although the Beverage segment revenue remained flat, Tilray made strategic decisions to optimize their craft beer SKU portfolio, while the Wellness and Distribution segments saw growth of 3% and 9%, respectively. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, anticipating adjusted EBITDA between $62 million and $72 million.

Tilray Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tilray's financial performance is weak, with significant losses and declining revenue. The income statement shows negative net profit margins and revenue contraction. The balance sheet indicates low leverage but negative returns, and cash flow analysis reveals liquidity issues with negative cash flows.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Tilray's income statement reveals significant challenges, with negative net profit margins and declining revenue growth. The TTM data shows a gross profit margin of 28.77%, but the net profit margin is deeply negative at -278.12%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue growth is negative, suggesting a contraction in sales. Overall, the company is struggling with profitability and growth.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15 in the TTM period, indicating conservative leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is not provided, but the available data suggests financial stability in terms of debt management, albeit with profitability concerns.
Cash Flow
25
Negative
Cash flow analysis highlights significant issues, with negative operating and free cash flows. The TTM data shows a free cash flow growth rate of -31.63%, indicating worsening cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting poor cash conversion. Overall, the cash flow situation is concerning, with limited liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08B1.13B1.07B844.72M792.12M619.67M
Gross Profit311.03M330.11M304.33M197.95M147.26M148.77M
EBITDA-2.97B-2.92B-99.25M-1.72B-310.61M-297.41M
Net Income-3.01B-3.00B-333.80M-1.96B-601.05M-443.75M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.08B2.90B5.91B5.92B6.87B7.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments264.83M351.78M354.98M604.16M524.29M589.77M
Total Debt231.29M451.09M527.75M794.89M786.36M1.13B
Total Liabilities561.99M860.49M1.22B1.44B1.27B1.88B
Stockholders Equity1.54B2.07B4.69B4.47B5.55B5.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-119.70M-174.98M-81.96M-17.37M-266.39M-100.93M
Operating Cash Flow-83.01M-129.81M-42.11M10.65M-223.45M-53.99M
Investing Cash Flow28.48M-64.11M174.88M-384.04M-27.14M55.67M
Financing Cash Flow120.54M183.20M-102.45M94.50M161.60M150.09M

Tilray Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.29
Price Trends
50DMA
1.41
Negative
100DMA
1.02
Positive
200DMA
0.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.02
Positive
RSI
43.90
Neutral
STOCH
10.50
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLRY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.56, below the 50-day MA of 1.41, and above the 200-day MA of 0.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TLRY.

Tilray Risk Analysis

Tilray disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilray reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tilray Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
$553.41M-8.30%0.70%15.62%
$1.50B-85.59%2.31%-726.17%
$10.60M-36.94%2.17%88.34%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TLRY
Tilray
1.34
-0.39
-22.54%
SNDL
SNDL
2.15
-0.01
-0.46%
IMCC
IM Cannabis Corp
1.44
-0.56
-28.00%

Tilray Corporate Events

Tilray Brands Reports Record Revenue and Profitability
Oct 10, 2025

Tilray Brands, Inc. is a global lifestyle and consumer packaged goods company operating in the cannabis, beverage, and wellness industries, with a presence in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, and Latin America.

Tilray’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Oct 10, 2025

The recent earnings call for Tilray showcased a balanced sentiment, highlighting significant achievements in revenue growth and international expansion, while also addressing challenges in the Beverage segment and permitting delays in Portugal. The company demonstrated resilience and strategic foresight amidst these mixed outcomes.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2025