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Southern Missouri Bancorp
(NASDAQ:SMBC)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
â–²(5.43% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:09/12/26
SMBC scores as moderately attractive: strong revenue growth, solid profitability, and a conservatively levered balance sheet are the primary positives, supported by a reasonable P/E. The score is held back by weak/volatile cash flow conversion, a soft technical setup (negative MACD and sub-50 RSI), and FY27 headwinds from deposit funding costs, potential near-term NIM pressure, and higher credit/expense risk.
Positive Factors
Loan growth and earnings expansion
Strong loan growth and substantial EPS expansion indicate continued customer demand and effective deployment of the bank’s earning assets. This combination can support durable revenue generation and operating leverage over the next several quarters if credit performance remains controlled.
Negative Factors
Higher credit costs and problem assets
The increase in charge-offs, provisions, and non-performing assets signals elevated credit noise that could pressure earnings and capital if it persists. Management expects normalization, but recent agricultural and commercial losses show that credit costs remain a material durability risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loan growth and earnings expansion
Strong loan growth and substantial EPS expansion indicate continued customer demand and effective deployment of the bank’s earning assets. This combination can support durable revenue generation and operating leverage over the next several quarters if credit performance remains controlled.
Read all positive factors
Southern Missouri Bancorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Loan Portfolio Breakdown
Analyzes the composition of the bank's loan portfolio, highlighting areas of lending focus and potential risk exposure. This reveals insights into the bank's growth strategy and credit risk management.
Analyzes the composition of the bank's loan portfolio, highlighting areas of lending focus and potential risk exposure. This reveals insights into the bank's growth strategy and credit risk management.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySouthern Missouri Bancorp (SMBC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$799.45M
Dividend Yield1.41%
Average Volume (3M)87.34K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth3.70%
EPS Growth24.24%
CountryUS
Employees725
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.45
Shares Outstanding11,013,279
10 Day Avg. Volume76,301
30 Day Avg. Volume87,341
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.49
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)2.67
P/FCF Ratio11.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$81.40Price Target Upside10.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)6.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$211.13M
Southern Missouri Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc., established in 1887 and headquartered in Poplar Bluff, Missouri, functions as the parent company for Southern Bank. Through its subsidiary, it delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial solutions to bo...
How the Company Makes Money
SMBC primarily earns money through its bank subsidiary’s net interest income and noninterest income. Net interest income is generated by collecting interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g., commercial loans, real estate l...
Southern Missouri Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong financial highlights — notably significant EPS and ROA improvement, NIM expansion, loan growth, capital returns (buybacks and dividend increase), and favorable agricultural conditions — while also acknowledging heightened credit noise this quarter (increased net charge-offs, a higher provision, and elevated non-performing assets/OREO), deposit mix pressures from wholesale/broker funding, potential near-term NIM compression as short-term rates rise and CDs reprice, and expected expense re-acceleration. Management emphasized disciplined risk management, a solid capital position, and active M&A optionality. Overall, the positives around earnings, margin expansion, loan growth, capital actions, and constructive ag outlook outweigh the credit-related and funding headwinds, but the company will need to manage credit trends and deposit funding costs closely in fiscal 2027.Positive Updates
Strong EPS and Year-over-Year Earnings Growth
Diluted EPS of $1.83 in the June quarter, up $0.23 (14%) from the prior quarter and up $0.44 (32%) year-over-year; full-year fiscal 2026 EPS of $6.43 versus $5.18 in fiscal 2025 (24% increase).
Negative Updates
Increased Credit Costs and Provision
Provision for credit losses of $3.2M in the quarter, up $1.1M QoQ (from $2.1M in March); ACL methodology update and higher net charge-offs contributed to increased provisioning expectations going forward.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong EPS and Year-over-Year Earnings Growth
Diluted EPS of $1.83 in the June quarter, up $0.23 (14%) from the prior quarter and up $0.44 (32%) year-over-year; full-year fiscal 2026 EPS of $6.43 versus $5.18 in fiscal 2025 (24% increase).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for fiscal 2027: management expects mid‑single‑digit loan growth, some near‑term pressure on net interest margin (Q4 NIM was 3.67% and NIM expanded ~22 bps in FY26) as short‑term rates and deposit competition rise (about 25% of deposits indexed to the 91‑day T‑bill, which is ~14 bps higher since early July), though modest loan repricing tailwinds exist (≈$550M of fixed‑rate loans maturing with new originations ~25 bps higher) while CD repricing is a larger headwind (≈$1.3B of CDs repricing over 12 months with new rates ~3–5 bps above maturing), a normalized effective tax rate of ~19–20% (vs. Q4 ETR of 11.9% driven by a $1.7M tax‑credit benefit), allowance for credit losses expected in a ~125–135 bps range (ACL was $54.9M or 1.25% of gross loans at 6/30/26 and 199% of NPLs), provisions may be higher near‑term after a $3.2M Q4 provision and $4.3M Q4 net charge‑offs but management expects charge‑offs to improve from the recent 17–18 bps pace toward historical 3–5 bps levels, operating expenses likely to re‑accelerate to mid‑ to single‑digit (up to high‑single‑digit) year‑over‑year growth driven by compensation and technology investments, and capital deployment to remain active (FY26 tangible book value $47.43, up 13% YoY; FY26 repurchases 317k shares using ~$19M; Q4 repurchase 4k shares at ~$69; dividend raised $0.02 to $0.27). Additionally, near‑term balance‑sheet data to note: loan pipeline ~$182M, Q4 originations ~$335M (up $85M YoY), gross loans +$291M YoY (+7.1%), and deposits +$67M Q4 (+1.5%) / +$126M YoY (~3%).Southern Missouri Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 316.54M | 305.25M | 273.22M | 202.62M | 138.07M |
| Gross Profit | 188.95M | 176.08M | 160.73M | 135.89M | 123.28M |
| EBITDA | 87.10M | 84.02M | 73.20M | 57.02M | 65.83M |
| Net Income | 71.84M | 58.31M | 50.18M | 39.24M | 47.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.23B | 5.02B | 4.60B | 4.36B | 3.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 541.74M | 653.95M | 489.30M | 472.77M | 326.95M |
| Total Debt | 166.19M | 142.28M | 134.60M | 156.62M | 61.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.64B | 4.47B | 4.12B | 3.91B | 2.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 590.68M | 544.69M | 488.75M | 446.06M | 320.77M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 76.56M | 75.29M | 61.22M | 55.98M | 62.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 80.52M | 81.56M | 70.27M | 62.02M | 67.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -303.57M | -285.11M | -245.74M | -213.41M | -303.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 121.15M | 335.51M | 182.39M | 118.55M | 199.80M |
Southern Missouri Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
73.98
Price Trends
74.52
Negative
73.29
Negative
68.23
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.74
Negative
48.93
Neutral
57.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMBC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.39, below the 50-day MA of 74.52, and above the 200-day MA of 68.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMBC.
Southern Missouri Bancorp Risk Analysis
Southern Missouri Bancorp disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Southern Missouri Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change and related legislative and regulatory initiatives may materially affect our business and results of operations. Q2, 2024
Southern Missouri Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $810.46M | 11.26 | 12.36% | 1.58% | 6.55% | 14.68% | |
77 Outperform | $871.85M | 14.91 | 10.30% | 0.67% | 11.51% | 37.08% | |
75 Outperform | $807.39M | 10.45 | 14.12% | 3.02% | 0.24% | 12.12% | |
71 Outperform | $627.43M | 9.49 | 13.73% | 1.12% | 12.91% | 95.79% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $799.45M | 11.25 | 12.54% | 1.41% | 3.70% | 24.24% |
* Financial Sector Average
SMBC
Southern Missouri Bancorp
72.59
20.18
38.50%
HIFS
Hingham Institution For Savings
287.78
-2.50
-0.86%
IBCP
Independent Bank
36.37
5.88
19.29%
SMBK
SmartFinancial
50.99
15.52
43.75%
SPFI
South Plains Financial
43.02
4.86
12.72%
Southern Missouri Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Southern Missouri Bancorp Posts Strong Q4, Hikes Dividend
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
Southern Missouri Bancorp reported strong results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, highlighting robust profitability and balance sheet growth. Diluted earnings per share rose 31.7% year over year in the quarter to $1.83,...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Southern Missouri Bancorp Boosts Dividend Amid Strong Results
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
Southern Missouri Bancorp reported strong preliminary results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026, with quarterly net income rising 28.5% year over year to $20.3 million and diluted EPS climbing to $1.83, driven by higher net interest...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.