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AMMO
(NASDAQ:POWW)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(13.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
POWW scores as a mid-range opportunity primarily supported by improving operating momentum and strong balance-sheet positioning, reinforced by a constructive earnings-call backdrop (revenue growth, EBITDA expansion, return to profitability, and cash-flow improvement). The main constraint is valuation (very high P/E) alongside still-uneven profitability and cash-flow consistency, which raises execution risk despite favorable technical trends.
Positive Factors
Operating Momentum
The combination of double-digit revenue growth, sharply higher adjusted EBITDA, and a return to net income indicates meaningful operating leverage. If sustained, this trajectory can strengthen internal funding capacity and support continued investment in the marketplace and transaction platform.
Negative Factors
Profitability Volatility
The recent return to profitability is encouraging, but the sharp swings across reporting periods show that earnings remain difficult to forecast. Persistent volatility can limit confidence in normalized margins and make future results more sensitive to demand, mix, and operating execution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating Momentum
The combination of double-digit revenue growth, sharply higher adjusted EBITDA, and a return to net income indicates meaningful operating leverage. If sustained, this trajectory can strengthen internal funding capacity and support continued investment in the marketplace and transaction platform.
Read all positive factors
AMMO (POWW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$285.51M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)580.62K
Price to Earnings (P/E)96.5
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees63
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding116,060,930
10 Day Avg. Volume651,660
30 Day Avg. Volume580,617
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.00
Price to Sales (P/S)4.60
P/FCF Ratio-167.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.00Price Target Upside35.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$56.61M
AMMO Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Outdoor Holding Company specializes in digital commerce, primarily operating an internet-based marketplace. A central component of its operations is the GunBroker e-commerce platform, a bidding website that facilitates the legitimate trade of fire...
How the Company Makes Money
AMMO primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling ammunition and related components. Revenue is generated when the company sells finished ammunition (e.g., rifle and handgun cartridges) and, where applicable, component products (such as cart...
AMMO Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strong quarter characterized by broad-based revenue growth, a substantial adjusted EBITDA increase, a full turnaround to net income, meaningful cash flow improvement, successful launch and early monetization of FFL transfer services, and significant cost reductions. Temporary and explainable headwinds include start-up costs that compressed gross margin, seasonal softness and a one-time Virginia-driven demand spike that may not repeat, plus remaining small SEC-related costs and early-stage AI initiatives with unproven impact. On balance, positive operational momentum and a stronger balance sheet outweigh the limited and largely transitory negatives.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Net revenues increased 22.1% year-over-year to $14.5 million (from $11.9 million), driven by marketplace volume and new FFL transfer fees (~$0.9 million contribution).
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression from New Service Launch
Gross margin declined ~260 basis points to 84.5% (from 87.2%), primarily reflecting FFL transfer start-up and implementation costs incurred early in the quarter; management expects margins to stabilize above ~85% as implementation costs abate.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Net revenues increased 22.1% year-over-year to $14.5 million (from $11.9 million), driven by marketplace volume and new FFL transfer fees (~$0.9 million contribution).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided continued focus on growing marketplace activity and revenue, reducing costs, scaling new transaction services (FFL transfers, universal payments, premium programs) and converting tech investments into productivity, and backed that guidance with results and targets: Q1 net revenue $14.5M (+22.1%), GMV $223.7M (+18.1%), AOV $477 (+$33 / +7.5%), conversion 1.76% (+11 bps), first‑party engaged sessions +2.9%, take rate 6.47% (FFL added ~39 bps; legacy 6.08%), firearm units +11.6% vs adjusted NICS +5.3%, FFL‑required units ≈6.4% of adjusted NICS (+41 bps), gross profit $12.2M (gross margin 84.5%; management expects margins to stabilize >85% as FFL scales), adjusted EBITDA $7.9M (+152%; TTM ≈$27M above the $25M goal), net income from continuing operations $3.6M (vs a $5.9M loss prior year), operating cash flow $4.4M (improvement of $11.1M YoY from -$6.7M), NFA/silencer GMV +71% YoY, cash $68.8M, and active share repurchases (≈1.5M shares repurchased since Jan, ~$2M this quarter, ~$12M remaining on a $15M authorization); they cautioned the Virginia‑driven demand was likely temporary and that FFL launch incurred front‑loaded implementation costs that should not recur.AMMO Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 53.75M | 51.13M | 49.40M | 53.94M | 63.15M | 240.27M |
| Gross Profit | 42.88M | 30.20M | 42.93M | 46.28M | 54.03M | 88.72M |
| EBITDA | 20.84M | 13.58M | -45.26M | 7.18M | 15.05M | 45.96M |
| Net Income | 5.73M | -3.54M | -130.83M | -16.59M | -8.77M | 25.87M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 264.57M | 267.48M | 297.33M | 403.04M | 413.20M | 414.18M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 68.78M | 68.10M | 30.23M | 55.59M | 39.13M | 23.28M |
| Total Debt | 10.88M | 11.17M | 1.56M | 13.10M | 14.86M | 5.14M |
| Total Liabilities | 28.62M | 32.53M | 75.30M | 44.99M | 39.07M | 39.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 235.95M | 234.96M | 222.03M | 358.05M | 374.12M | 374.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.40M | -1.40M | -13.51M | 29.98M | 23.02M | -17.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.07M | 1.49M | -10.11M | 32.64M | 35.56M | 1.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.13M | 40.60M | -5.48M | -8.02M | -12.54M | -69.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.53M | -4.25M | -9.77M | -8.66M | -6.66M | -27.15M |
AMMO Technical Analysis
Positive
2.21
Price Trends
2.23
Positive
2.22
Positive
2.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
64.94
Neutral
89.54
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POWW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.27, below the 50-day MA of 2.23, and above the 200-day MA of 2.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for POWW.
AMMO Risk Analysis
AMMO disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AMMO reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AMMO Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $614.75M | 25.14 | 6.63% | 3.79% | 16.96% | 100.15% | |
65 Neutral | $285.51M | 96.47 | 2.43% | ― | ― | ― | |
64 Neutral | $726.53M | 59.21 | 4.29% | 0.97% | 7.64% | 138.23% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $112.81M | -12.68 | -14.46% | ― | -13.42% | -154.73% | |
48 Neutral | $56.67M | -7.73 | -6.55% | ― | ― | 98.87% | |
39 Underperform | $65.36M | -4.12 | -107.61% | ― | 92.59% | 0.97% |
* Industrials Sector Average
POWW
AMMO
2.46
0.89
56.69%
SWBI
Smith & Wesson Brands
13.71
3.95
40.51%
RGR
Sturm Ruger & Company
45.47
-0.78
-1.69%
BYRN
Byrna Technologies
4.82
-16.96
-77.87%
PEW
GrabAGun Digital Holdings
1.92
-2.87
-59.92%
SPAI
Safe Pro Group, Inc.
3.21
-3.52
-52.30%
AMMO Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
AMMO Expands Share Repurchase Authorization, Extends Buyback Program
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Outdoor Holding Company’s board amended its discretionary share repurchase program, originally authorized in January 2026, raising the total buyback authorization from $15 million to $35 million and extending the program...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
AMMO Shareholders Approve Texas Redomestication and Governance
Positive
Oct 2, 2026
AMMO disclosed that, in connection with its conversion to a Texas corporation, the board appointed Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Steven F. Urvan as President effective at the time of redomestication, while noting no new or amended compensat...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AMMO Posts Strong Revenue Growth and Profit Turnaround
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 5, 2026, the board of Outdoor Holding Company amended and restated its bylaws to tighten governance around shareholder actions, including new advance notice rules for board nominations and proposals, enhanced procedures and limits on sha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.