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NexPoint Residential (NXRT) AI Stock Analysis
NexPoint Residential
(NYSE:NXRT)
NXRT’s score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (recent net losses and very high leverage) and bearish technicals with the stock trading below all major moving averages. Valuation is helped by a high dividend yield, but the negative P/E reflects loss-making results, and the latest earnings call included reduced guidance, falling same-store NOI expectations, leverage/NAV pressure, and potential dividend reset risk.
NexPoint Residential (NXRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $447.89M
- Dividend Yield
- 12.09%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 596.08K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -12.1
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.78
- Revenue Growth
- 0.68%
- EPS Growth
- 23.81%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 1
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- REIT - Residential
NexPoint Residential Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) is a Real Estate Investment Trust publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange, specializing in the acquisition, ownership, and operation of well-located apartment communities designed for middle-income residents....
How the Company Makes Money
NXRT primarily makes money by generating rental and property-level income from its portfolio of multifamily apartment communities. The largest revenue stream is rental income collected from tenants under lease agreements, which varies based on occupa...
NexPoint Residential Earnings Call Summary
The call was dominated by a significant third-quarter earnings miss, lower full-year guidance, declining same-store NOI, elevated expenses, higher interest costs, increased leverage, a lower NAV, and a potential dividend reset. Management highlighted positive renewal trends, improving conversion, declining supply, the Atlanta recovery, the Midtown Crossing acquisition, and planned asset sales and buybacks, but these positives were offset by substantial near-term operating and balance-sheet challenges.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management lowered full year core FFO guidance to a range of $2.17 to $2.27 per diluted share, with a midpoint of $2.22, and same store NOI guidance to a range of negative 5.1% to negative 3.6%, with the midpoint of negative 4.3%; fourth quarter guidance implies same store NOI down about 3.3%, average financial occupancy of 92.8%, and concessions of 1.9% of gross potential rent. Revised ranges include acquisitions of $32 million to $200 million, with a $160 million midpoint, and dispositions of $0 to $200 million, with a $100 million midpoint; each 25 basis point move in SOFR is worth about $0.14 a share once the KeyBanc swap ends. Management said new lease pricing could continue to target recovery of the 140 basis point gap to submarket occupancies, expects physical occupancy to improve throughout the fourth quarter, and expects revenue to be incrementally positive in 2027; the board will decide at its first meeting in 2027 whether to reset the dividend to a level that is appropriately covered.
NexPoint Residential Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Top-line rebounded sharply in the TTM period (+134% YoY), but profitability has deteriorated with net losses in TTM (-$33.5M) and 2025 (-$32.0M). Balance sheet risk is a major constraint due to very high leverage (debt-to-equity roughly 3.0x–5.7x) and declining equity, while operating cash flow remains positive (TTM $35.4M) but free cash flow is down sharply (~55%), pointing to pressured earnings quality and financial flexibility.
Income Statement
44NeutralBalance Sheet
38NegativeCash Flow
55Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 256.63M | 251.28M | 259.70M | 277.53M | 263.95M | 219.24M |
| Gross Profit | 168.62M | 211.72M | 146.47M | 157.58M | 143.89M | 117.05M |
| EBITDA | 297.53M | 124.46M | 202.99M | 250.01M | 138.94M | 137.39M |
| Net Income | -37.16M | -32.03M | 1.11M | 44.26M | -9.26M | 23.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.86B | 1.89B | 1.91B | 2.11B | 2.23B | 2.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.80M | 13.70M | 23.15M | 12.37M | 127.84M | 53.24M |
| Total Debt | 1.59B | 1.56B | 1.46B | 1.48B | 1.60B | 1.55B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.63B | 1.59B | 1.49B | 1.61B | 1.70B | 1.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 224.14M | 295.50M | 410.37M | 494.62M | 519.67M | 469.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 37.18M | 83.59M | 73.57M | 96.58M | 79.10M | 73.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 53.85M | 83.59M | 73.57M | 96.58M | 79.10M | 73.27M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -123.95M | -115.75M | 130.62M | 51.92M | -162.30M | -235.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 72.59M | 23.42M | -195.55M | -155.02M | 46.31M | 194.32M |
NexPoint Residential Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NXRT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.43, below the 50-day MA of 20.19, and below the 200-day MA of 24.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NXRT.
NexPoint Residential Risk Analysis
NexPoint Residential disclosed 85 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NexPoint Residential reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskNexPoint Residential Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CSR67Neutral
IRT62Neutral
BRT50Neutral
AIV47Neutral- NXRT44Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSR | 67Neutral | $1.01B | 11.05 | 12.56% | 5.17% | 15.45% | 196.14% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| IRT | 62Neutral | $3.58B | 58.50 | 1.82% | 4.53% | 3.11% | 172.52% |
| BRT | 50Neutral | $238.86M | -18.76 | -7.46% | 7.62% | 1.18% | -39.73% |
| AIV | 47Neutral | $239.64M | 0.43 | 134.77% | 294.67% | -16.20% | 99.72% |
| NXRT | 44Neutral | $422.76M | -12.09 | -14.29% | 12.09% | 0.68% | 23.81% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXRT | NexPoint Residential | 17.53 | -10.81 | -38.14% | |
| AIV | Apartment Investment And Management | 1.69 | -1.07 | -38.70% | |
| CSR | Centerspace | 59.57 | 2.63 | 4.62% | |
| IRT | Independence Realty Trust | 15.45 | 0.17 | 1.10% | |
| BRT | Brt Apartments Corp. | 13.13 | -0.64 | -4.64% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026