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NVR
(NYSE:NVR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$7,325.00
▲(4.63% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
Strong financial performance (profitability, conservative leverage, and solid cash generation) supports the score, but it is held back by a clearly bearish technical setup (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support at ~23x earnings.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Operating cash flow consistently exceeding net income and free cash flow tracking net income near 1:1 demonstrates high earnings quality. That durable cash conversion supports funding working capital, option-based land strategies, debt service and capital allocation without heavy external financing through cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue Trend Weakness
Top-line weakness—declines in 2025 and mid-single-digit drop TTM—reflects softer demand. Prolonged revenue contraction limits operating leverage, constrains absolute cash flow growth, and can force pricing or promotional measures that impair long-term margin sustainability if demand recovery is delayed.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Operating cash flow consistently exceeding net income and free cash flow tracking net income near 1:1 demonstrates high earnings quality. That durable cash conversion supports funding working capital, option-based land strategies, debt service and capital allocation without heavy external financing through cycles.
Read all positive factors
NVR Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNVR (NVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)30.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth-7.05%
EPS Growth-16.31%
CountryUS
Employees7,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)433.30
Shares Outstanding2,699,292
10 Day Avg. Volume30,902
30 Day Avg. Volume30,456
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.08
Price to Book (P/B)5.47
Price to Sales (P/S)2.05
P/FCF Ratio19.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7,351.20Price Target Upside5.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)357.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.44B
NVR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NVR, Inc. functions as a prominent home construction company within the United States, organized into two primary divisions: homebuilding and mortgage banking. Within its homebuilding segment, the company develops and sells various residential uni...
How the Company Makes Money
NVR primarily makes money by selling newly built homes and related services. The largest revenue stream is homebuilding revenue, recognized from the sale of completed homes to customers. This includes proceeds from sales of single-family homes, to...
NVR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.70B | 10.32B | 10.54B | 9.53B | 10.54B | 8.96B |
| Gross Profit | 2.21B | 2.37B | 2.69B | 2.48B | 2.88B | 2.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 1.82B | 2.16B | 1.97B | 2.31B | 1.66B |
| Net Income | 1.24B | 1.34B | 1.68B | 1.59B | 1.73B | 1.24B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.59B | 5.86B | 6.38B | 6.60B | 5.66B | 5.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.73B | 1.96B | 2.61B | 3.16B | 2.52B | 2.57B |
| Total Debt | 1.05B | 1.20B | 1.02B | 1.01B | 1.01B | 1.59B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.09B | 1.99B | 2.17B | 2.24B | 2.15B | 2.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.49B | 3.86B | 4.21B | 4.36B | 3.51B | 3.00B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.23B | 1.10B | 1.35B | 1.47B | 1.85B | 1.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.25B | 1.12B | 1.37B | 1.50B | 1.87B | 1.24B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.73M | -71.21M | -26.55M | -24.10M | -27.43M | -18.18M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.77B | -1.76B | -1.90B | -832.97M | -1.91B | -1.40B |
NVR Technical Analysis
Positive
7000.92
Price Trends
6245.90
Positive
6615.06
Positive
7094.86
Negative
Market Momentum
154.87
Negative
60.92
Neutral
65.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7000.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6491.78, above the 50-day MA of 6245.90, and below the 200-day MA of 7094.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 154.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVR.
NVR Risk Analysis
NVR disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NVR reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NVR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $6.61B | 10.55 | 10.85% | ― | -8.99% | -22.26% | |
75 Outperform | $25.46B | 12.83 | 15.92% | 0.78% | -5.94% | -27.06% | |
74 Outperform | $14.69B | 11.80 | 15.49% | 0.70% | 3.62% | -2.11% | |
72 Outperform | $44.97B | 14.81 | 13.24% | 1.14% | -5.57% | -19.40% | |
69 Neutral | $21.19B | 13.80 | 7.36% | 1.91% | -7.47% | -47.15% | |
67 Neutral | $18.22B | 15.58 | 32.66% | ― | -7.05% | -16.31% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NVR
NVR
6,750.79
-824.21
-10.88%
DHI
DR Horton
158.57
29.10
22.48%
LEN
Lennar
88.21
-19.49
-18.10%
PHM
PulteGroup
133.67
26.39
24.59%
TOL
Toll Brothers
157.14
41.72
36.15%
TMHC
Taylor Morrison
71.86
9.27
14.81%
NVR Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
NVR Shareholders Reelect Board and Approve Executive Pay
Neutral
May 8, 2026
On May 7, 2026, NVR, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where investors re-elected the full slate of directors to one-year terms, with all nominees receiving strong majority support despite varying levels of opposition. Shareholders als...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.