National Storage Affiliates (NSA) AI Stock Analysis

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National Storage Affiliates

(NYSE:NSA)

Select Model

Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:

$33.00

▲(9.34% Upside)

The overall stock score of 59 reflects a challenging financial environment for National Storage Affiliates, with declining revenue and free cash flow growth being significant concerns. While the company benefits from strong operational efficiency and a solid balance sheet, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation. The earnings call provided a balanced view with both positive and negative aspects, but the financial pressures remain a key risk.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

The company's operational efficiency and low leverage indicate a strong ability to manage costs and maintain financial stability, supporting long-term growth.

Technology and Marketing Advances

Investments in AI and marketing enhance customer service and demand generation, positioning NSA well for future growth in a competitive market.

Successful Property Dispositions

Strategic property sales improve financial flexibility and focus on core assets, enhancing long-term operational efficiency and profitability.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

The significant decline in revenue growth indicates challenges in market demand or pricing power, potentially impacting long-term financial performance.

Core FFO Per Share Decline

A decline in core FFO per share suggests reduced profitability and cash flow generation, which can hinder future investment and shareholder returns.

Increased Expenses

Rising expenses, particularly in key areas, can pressure margins and reduce the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives, affecting long-term profitability.

National Storage Affiliates (NSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$4.06B

Dividend Yield7.55%

Average Volume (3M)1.04M

Price to Earnings (P/E)48.3

Beta (1Y)0.72

Revenue Growth-7.33%

EPS Growth-66.93%

CountryUS

Employees1,466

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength53

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.19

Shares Outstanding76,765,050

10 Day Avg. Volume1,083,168

30 Day Avg. Volume1,036,004

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.50

Price to Book (P/B)2.71

Price to Sales (P/S)3.78

P/FCF Ratio8.51

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.68

Enterprise Value/Revenue8.96

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.74

Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.89

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$33.46

Price Target Upside10.87% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering12

National Storage Affiliates Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Storage Affiliates Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2020, the Company held ownership interests in and operated 788 self storage properties located in 35 states and Puerto Rico with approximately 49.5 million rentable square feet. NSA is one of the largest owners and operators of self storage properties among public and private companies in the United States.

How the Company Makes MoneyNational Storage Affiliates generates revenue primarily through the rental of self-storage units to customers. The company charges monthly fees for storage space, which can vary based on factors such as location, unit size, and additional services like climate control. Additionally, NSA earns income from ancillary services, including the sale of packing supplies and insurance options for stored items. The company's revenue model is supported by its strategic partnerships with regional operators, which allow for efficient management and marketing of facilities, enhancing occupancy rates and overall profitability. NSA also benefits from economies of scale in property management and marketing, allowing it to optimize operational efficiencies and drive revenue growth. Seasonal demand fluctuations, urbanization trends, and the increasing need for storage solutions due to lifestyle changes also contribute to NSA's earnings potential.

National Storage Affiliates Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Ending Same-Store Occupancy

Ending Same-Store Occupancy
Indicates the percentage of storage units occupied at the end of a period in stores open for at least a year, reflecting demand stability and pricing power.

Chart InsightsEnding same-store occupancy for National Storage Affiliates has been on a declining trend since mid-2022, reflecting broader challenges in maintaining tenant levels. Despite a slight uptick in April 2025, the company faces pressure from increased interest expenses and a decline in same-store NOI. However, management is optimistic about a better leasing season ahead, driven by improved pricing power and strategic market positioning, particularly in Portland and Houston. The focus on reducing net debt-to-EBITDA and leveraging acquisitions could stabilize occupancy and enhance revenue growth in the coming months.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

National Storage Affiliates Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted improvements in occupancy and RevPar growth, along with advancements in technology and successful property dispositions. However, these are overshadowed by a decline in core FFO and same-store NOI, increased expenses, and challenges related to pro internalization and concessions. The overall sentiment reflects a balanced perspective with both achievements and ongoing challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Occupancy Improvement

Occupancy increased 140 basis points sequentially during the second quarter to finish at 85% and further increased in July to 85.3%.

RevPar Growth

RevPar has grown for 5 consecutive months ending July with the year-over-year delta improving from down 4.2% in February to down 1.6% in July.

Technology and Marketing Advances

The use of AI in call centers now handles 15% of total incoming call volume. Enhanced marketing strategies have led to improved top-of-the-funnel demand.

Successful Property Dispositions

Sold 10 properties in non-core markets and used net proceeds of $40 million to pay down the revolver.

Strong Portland Market Performance

Portland market shows a positive same-store revenue growth after overcoming a period of oversupply.

Negative Updates

Core FFO Per Share Decline

Reported core FFO per share of $0.55 for the second quarter, an 11% decline from the prior year period.

Same-Store NOI and Revenue Decline

Same-store revenues declined 3%, driven by lower average occupancy and a year-over-year decline in average revenue per square foot.

Increased Expenses

Expense growth was 4.6% in the second quarter, driven by property taxes, marketing, and R&M.

Challenges in Pro Internalization

Realizing benefits from the pro internalization is taking longer than expected, impacting revenue management strategies and brand consolidation.

Elevated Use of Concessions

Increased use of concessions during the quarter was a near-term drag on revenues.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) faced several challenges impacting their financial performance, leading to adjustments in their guidance. Core FFO per share declined by 11% year-over-year to $0.55, driven by a 3% decrease in same-store revenues, a 240 basis point drop in average occupancy, and a 30 basis point decrease in average revenue per square foot. Expenses grew by 4.6%, with significant increases in property taxes, marketing, and repair and maintenance costs. NSA's guidance for 2025 was updated to reflect these challenges, with same-store revenue growth expected to be between negative 2% to 3%, same-store NOI growth between negative 4.25% to 5.75%, and core FFO per share between $2.17 to $2.23. Despite the headwinds, NSA remains optimistic about future prospects, citing improvements in occupancy, a decline in new supply, and positive trends in certain markets.

National Storage Affiliates Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Storage Affiliates presents a mixed financial picture. Strong cash flow generation and stable EBIT and EBITDA margins are positives. However, challenges include a declining net profit margin, negative revenue growth, and high leverage, which pose potential risks.

Income Statement

Positive

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. Gross profit margin is strong at approximately 72.14% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 8.58% for TTM, showing a decline from 14.48% in 2024. Revenue growth has been negative in recent periods, with a decrease of 10.22% from 2023 to 2024, reflecting potential challenges in revenue generation. EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown stability, which is positive for core operations.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 for TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential risk. The equity ratio is relatively low at 19.67%, which points to heavy reliance on debt financing. Return on equity has decreased to 6.33% for TTM, down from 10.37% in 2024, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis indicates a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 5.15 for TTM, reflecting robust cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 5.42, showing efficient conversion of earnings to cash. Despite a slight decline in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM, the company maintains good cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	760.93M	770.34M	858.06M	801.57M	585.67M	432.22M
Gross Profit	496.24M	558.48M	407.08M	357.39M	272.09M	308.74M
EBITDA	458.11M	487.01M	626.72M	532.21M	379.00M	262.13M
Net Income	67.87M	111.52M	156.67M	103.74M	105.25M	48.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.18B	5.35B	5.93B	6.07B	5.56B	3.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.12M	50.41M	94.59M	35.31M	25.01M	18.72M
Total Debt	22.68M	3.47B	3.68B	3.58B	2.96B	1.94B
Total Liabilities	3.54B	3.59B	3.81B	3.68B	3.08B	2.08B
Stockholders Equity	1.00B	1.08B	1.42B	1.65B	1.78B	968.96M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	295.33M	342.49M	406.03M	400.12M	303.35M	203.90M
Operating Cash Flow	351.35M	363.06M	441.58M	443.85M	331.35M	220.65M
Investing Cash Flow	-93.69M	425.42M	161.10M	-584.16M	-2.00B	-509.68M
Financing Cash Flow	-296.75M	-825.42M	-557.19M	154.64M	1.67B	286.45M

National Storage Affiliates Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price30.18

Price Trends

50DMA

30.48

Negative

100DMA

31.43

Negative

200DMA

33.56

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.23

Positive

RSI

45.03

Neutral

STOCH

56.69

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.57, below the 50-day MA of 30.48, and below the 200-day MA of 33.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NSA.

National Storage Affiliates Risk Analysis

National Storage Affiliates disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Storage Affiliates reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Storage Affiliates Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSA	76 Outperform	$51.50B	32.03	18.98%	4.09%	2.49%	-14.10%
CUBE	73 Outperform	$9.33B	24.80	13.43%	5.11%	3.14%	-8.01%
EXR	71 Outperform	$31.35B	30.75	6.97%	4.54%	4.83%	18.94%
IIPR	69 Neutral	$1.58B	12.21	7.04%	13.46%	-7.80%	-18.78%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
SELF	62 Neutral	$57.03M	23.06	5.15%	5.77%	4.08%	11.03%
NSA	59 Neutral	$4.06B	48.29	6.19%	7.55%	-7.33%	-66.93%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NSA

National Storage Affiliates

30.18

-11.59

-27.75%

CUBE

Cubesmart

40.70

-7.67

-15.86%

EXR

Extra Space Storage

142.82

-19.36

-11.94%

PSA

Public Storage

293.54

-39.68

-11.91%

IIPR

Innovative Industrial Properties

56.46

-57.40

-50.41%

SELF

Global Self Storage

5.03

0.32

6.79%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 13, 2025