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Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A
(NYSE:NP)
Select Model
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$33.00
▼(-0.69% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/21/26
NP scores well overall primarily due to strong fundamental operating performance and a very constructive earnings call with repeated guidance raises and sustained ~61%+ adjusted EBITDA margin expectations. The key offset is balance-sheet risk (deeply negative equity and meaningful debt), while technicals are mixed and valuation appears reasonable rather than clearly cheap.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Strong revenue and EBITDA growth indicate that Neptune is expanding while retaining substantial operating profitability. The 62% adjusted EBITDA margin provides internal funding capacity for technology, distribution, and product investment, supporting durable earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Equity and Debt Risk
Deeply negative equity and substantial debt reduce financial flexibility even though the business is profitable and generating cash. A relatively small asset base can leave less balance-sheet capacity to absorb adverse developments, while debt service and refinancing needs may constrain future investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Strong revenue and EBITDA growth indicate that Neptune is expanding while retaining substantial operating profitability. The 62% adjusted EBITDA margin provides internal funding capacity for technology, distribution, and product investment, supporting durable earnings growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A (NP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.90B
Dividend Yield4.86%
Average Volume (3M)571.80K
Price to Earnings (P/E)87.7
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth33.75%
EPS Growth16.46%
CountryUS
Employees62
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryInsurance - Brokers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding93,798,090
10 Day Avg. Volume485,101
30 Day Avg. Volume571,800
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.30
Price to Book (P/B)-17.71
Price to Sales (P/S)25.25
P/FCF Ratio84.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue21.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit30.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda48.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.94Price Target Upside2.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$204.84M
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. functions as a technology-driven managing general agent (MGA) specializing in flood insurance solutions. The company provides a range of offerings, including both primary and excess flood coverage for residential an...
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Neptune reported record revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, premium in force, and policies in force, raised 2026 guidance, introduced 2027 guidance, generated substantial cash flow, reduced leverage, and highlighted strong productivity, distribution, capacity, and AI momentum. The company acknowledged headwinds from weak housing activity, the absence of major hurricanes, lower retention versus the prior year, seasonal sales patterns, and the currently immaterial contribution from direct AI purchasing, but management stated that growth has continued despite those conditions.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Financial Results
Third-quarter revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $59.6 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $36.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 62%, up 147 basis points from a year ago.
Negative Updates
Weak Housing Market
Management said the housing market remains weak and that the absence of a recovery has created a headwind for new business demand.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Financial Results
Third-quarter revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $59.6 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $36.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 62%, up 147 basis points from a year ago.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised 2026 revenue guidance for the fourth time from $186 million-$189 million to $204 million, which, if achieved, will result in approximately 28% year-over-year growth with an Adjusted EBITDA margin above 61%; for full year 2027, it expects approximately $238 million in revenue at an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 61%. The outlook assumes neither a recovery in the housing market nor an above-average hurricane season, excludes any inorganic growth and any substantial contribution from new product lines, and does not plan for a particularly strong hurricane season, any uptick in the housing market, anything happening with the NFIP, any inorganic growth opportunities, or any particular growth in new products, including the earthquake product. The company anticipates a formal launch of its indemnity earthquake product in Q4 and hopes all steps for a fully launched product are completed by the end of the year.Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 197.00M | 159.55M | 119.30M | 84.87M |
| Gross Profit | 136.24M | 103.06M | 79.23M | 54.51M |
| EBITDA | 86.27M | 75.59M | 66.93M | 47.37M |
| Net Income | 44.74M | 37.41M | 34.59M | 17.89M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 103.92M | 65.30M | 48.15M | 41.67M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.94M | 8.04M | 7.09M | 8.13M |
| Total Debt | 215.00M | 240.00M | 133.65M | 174.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 315.52M | 292.79M | 414.14M | 429.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | -211.60M | -227.49M | -365.99M | -387.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | 83.08M | 47.69M | 46.21M | 14.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 82.04M | 51.67M | 49.93M | 18.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.27M | -3.98M | -3.71M | -4.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -58.87M | -35.21M | -42.47M | -9.87M |
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Technical Analysis
Negative
33.23
Price Trends
30.26
Negative
30.25
Negative
27.40
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.23
Negative
44.93
Neutral
29.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.33, above the 50-day MA of 30.26, and above the 200-day MA of 27.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NP.
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A
28.44
2.94
11.53%
GRND
Grindr
13.68
-0.64
-4.47%
DSP
Viant Technology
13.81
4.73
52.09%
Neptune Insurance Holdings, Inc. Class A Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Neptune Insurance Reports Record Q3 Results and Growth
Positive
Oct 20, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. announced a planned transition in its finance leadership, with Chief Financial Officer Jim Steiner notifying the company that he will step down as CFO, principal financial officer and principal ...
Executive/Board Changes
Neptune Insurance Adds Independent Director to Board
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from six to seven members and elected David Noble as an independent Class I director, with a term running until the 2029 annual meeting of stockholders. Noble, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.