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Madison Square Garden Sports
(NYSE:MSGS)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$409.00
▲(3.18% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial resilience (high leverage and negative equity) and an extremely expensive valuation (very high P/E). These are partially offset by solid technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a generally upbeat earnings call featuring FY27 growth guidance, though cost pressures and tax/spin-off risks remain meaningful.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth and Diversified Monetization
Growth across media, tickets, sponsorships, merchandise and league-related income reduces reliance on one revenue stream. Management’s FY27 outlook indicates continued commercial expansion, supporting the business model beyond a single game-day or seasonal revenue source.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
High debt combined with negative equity weakens financial resilience and limits flexibility if team results, media revenue or sponsorship demand deteriorate. Positive cash flow helps, but the capital structure remains sensitive to operating setbacks and refinancing needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth and Diversified Monetization
Growth across media, tickets, sponsorships, merchandise and league-related income reduces reliance on one revenue stream. Management’s FY27 outlook indicates continued commercial expansion, supporting the business model beyond a single game-day or seasonal revenue source.
Read all positive factors
Madison Square Garden Sports Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue streams such as ticket sales, merchandise, and broadcasting rights, highlighting which areas drive the most income and where there may be opportunities or vulnerabilities in the business model.
Breaks down revenue streams such as ticket sales, merchandise, and broadcasting rights, highlighting which areas drive the most income and where there may be opportunities or vulnerabilities in the business model.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMadison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.78B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)255.96K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1258.2
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth11.03%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,007
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding19,550,425
10 Day Avg. Volume184,689
30 Day Avg. Volume255,959
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-9.34
Price to Book (P/B)-36.86
Price to Sales (P/S)8.41
P/FCF Ratio158.45
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$466.50Price Target Upside17.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.08B
Madison Square Garden Sports Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. operates as a professional sports company in the United States. The company owns and operates a portfolio of assets that consists of the New York Knickerbockers of the National Basketball Association (NBA) and th...
How the Company Makes Money
MSGS makes money primarily by monetizing its professional sports teams through a mix of game-day, media, commercial, and licensing revenues. Key revenue streams include: (1) Media and broadcasting: revenue from the distribution of game content thr...
Madison Square Garden Sports Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum driven by the Knicks' championship and associated spikes in ticket, merchandise, sponsorship and event revenues, producing a large quarterly profitability swing and healthy full-year adjusted operating income. Management outlined concrete commercial wins (new partnerships, suite renewals, record gate revenues) and a planned spin-off intended to unlock strategic value. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near- and medium-term cost pressures — including higher roster compensation, luxury tax, increased revenue sharing, substantial projected incremental tax expense (~$60M in FY28) and spin-off-related costs and uncertainty — plus a net debt position that warrants attention. On balance, the upbeat revenue and profitability performance and clear commercial momentum appear to outweigh the identified challenges and costs.Positive Updates
Full Year Revenue and Adjusted Operating Income
Fiscal 2026 total revenues of $1.15 billion (company commentary also cited ~ $1.2 billion) and adjusted operating income of $58.7 million (nearly $59 million) for the full year.
Negative Updates
Projected Incremental Tax Expense from Upcoming Tax Law Changes
Excluding the impact of the proposed spin-off, management currently estimates approximately $60 million of additional income tax expense for fiscal year 2028 due to pending tax law changes; combined tax burden would be higher if the spin-off is completed.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full Year Revenue and Adjusted Operating Income
Fiscal 2026 total revenues of $1.15 billion (company commentary also cited ~ $1.2 billion) and adjusted operating income of $58.7 million (nearly $59 million) for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that it expects revenue growth across all categories in fiscal 2027, underpinned by strong momentum from the Knicks championship (FY26 total revenue ~$1.15–1.2B; adjusted operating income ~$58.7–59M; Q4 revenue $278.7M; Q4 AOI $39.6M), robust postseason results (Q4 event-related revenues $200.7M, +43% YoY; playoff revenues $182M vs $115.2M prior year; sponsorship/signage $39.1M, +23% YoY; sponsorships more than doubled in the postseason), and commercial initiatives (2.2M net new social followers, nearly 22M combined followers; suite renovations to drive incremental FY27 revenue). Operational and cost guidance includes higher team compensation and luxury tax (NBA cap +$10.4M, NHL cap +$8.5M; NBA luxury tax threshold +$12.5M to ~$200.4M), higher revenue-sharing (including NHL CBA effects and one more regular-season home game for the Rangers in FY27), and continued investment in the teams; balance sheet metrics at quarter end were cash ~$164.5M and debt ~$258.5M. Management also reiterated the planned Rangers spin-off (Form 10 filed confidentially, public update this week, targeted completion by end of October) and noted that upcoming tax-law changes could add roughly $60M of income tax expense in fiscal 2028 (excluding any spin-off effects).Madison Square Garden Sports Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.15B | 1.04B | 1.03B | 887.45M | 821.35M |
| Gross Profit | 320.12M | 280.88M | 407.47M | 335.06M | 315.75M |
| EBITDA | 42.25M | 7.60M | 136.42M | 116.38M | 90.71M |
| Net Income | 7.76M | -22.44M | 58.77M | 47.79M | 51.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.54B | 1.58B | 1.44B | 1.40B | 1.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.51M | 153.19M | 94.91M | 40.46M | 91.02M |
| Total Debt | 1.14B | 1.18B | 1.11B | 1.12B | 993.29M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.80B | 1.86B | 1.71B | 1.74B | 1.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | -263.30M | -281.44M | -266.31M | -337.23M | -147.09M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.26M | 87.99M | 90.68M | 151.29M | 177.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 62.66M | 91.61M | 92.13M | 152.47M | 178.06M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.21M | -6.92M | -8.90M | -17.76M | -2.93M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -49.13M | -26.41M | -28.79M | -185.27M | -156.14M |
Madison Square Garden Sports Technical Analysis
Positive
396.40
Price Trends
392.02
Positive
370.01
Positive
320.85
Positive
Market Momentum
3.75
Positive
53.33
Neutral
25.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 396.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 399.55, above the 50-day MA of 392.02, and above the 200-day MA of 320.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MSGS.
Madison Square Garden Sports Risk Analysis
Madison Square Garden Sports disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Madison Square Garden Sports reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Madison Square Garden Sports Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $3.78B | 57.26 | 5.95% | ― | 12.52% | 82.30% | |
66 Neutral | $36.56B | 64.05 | 6.41% | 1.72% | 35.92% | 15.44% | |
63 Neutral | $5.69B | -68.69 | -3.17% | ― | 17.17% | -187.98% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
51 Neutral | $9.78B | 1,258.16 | -2.73% | ― | 11.03% | ― | |
46 Neutral | $4.10B | -165.18 | -9.65% | ― | 11.51% | 71.05% | |
45 Neutral | $3.33B | 106.22 | 1.26% | ― | 6.77% | -199.58% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MSGS
Madison Square Garden Sports
406.94
209.95
106.58%
TKO
TKO Group Holdings
193.41
11.08
6.08%
MANU
Manchester United
23.87
6.66
38.70%
SPHR
Sphere Entertainment
159.85
116.15
265.79%
MSGE
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp.
80.63
40.74
102.13%
BATRA
Atlanta Braves Holdings Inc Class A
57.79
10.47
22.13%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.