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Mdu Res (MDU)
NYSE:MDU
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Mdu Resources Group (MDU) AI Stock Analysis

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MDU

Mdu Resources Group

(NYSE:MDU)

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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
â–¼(-3.53% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
MDU’s score is held back primarily by weak cash conversion and negative free cash flow alongside bearish technical momentum. These are partially offset by stable regulated profitability, manageable (though meaningful) leverage, and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with reaffirmed guidance and visible growth initiatives, leaving the overall profile moderately balanced but with clear funding/execution risk.
Positive Factors
Regulated utility profitability
Regulated utility operations provide recurring revenue and earnings visibility through approved rates and cost recovery. Recent rate actions, stronger electric performance, and improved gas results support the durability of the core earnings base.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Heavy capital spending and working-capital pressure are preventing accounting profits from translating into surplus cash. Persistent negative free cash flow can increase borrowing or equity needs and reduce flexibility during the investment cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Regulated utility profitability
Regulated utility operations provide recurring revenue and earnings visibility through approved rates and cost recovery. Recent rate actions, stronger electric performance, and improved gas results support the durability of the core earnings base.
Read all positive factors

Mdu Resources Group (MDU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mdu Resources Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
MDU Resources Group, Inc. operates across two primary sectors within the United States: regulated energy provision and a diverse range of construction materials and services. Its Electric division is responsible for producing, moving, and supplyin...
How the Company Makes Money
MDU makes money through a mix of regulated utility earnings and construction-materials/contracting revenues. Regulated utilities generate revenue by delivering natural gas and electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers under ...

Mdu Resources Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally positive operational and financial picture: strong quarter-over-quarter earnings growth, constructive regulatory outcomes in several jurisdictions, meaningful commercial progress on large growth projects (notably Bakken East precedent agreements and >1 GW of signed data center ESAs), and reaffirmed guidance and long-term growth targets. Key risks highlighted include a moderated pipeline segment result, higher interest expense, pending regulatory approvals and refunds, and timing/financing uncertainty around the large Bakken East project and data center approvals. Overall the positive execution and commercial milestones outweigh the remaining execution and regulatory risks.
Positive Updates
Quarterly Earnings Growth
Reported Q2 2026 earnings of $21.3 million ($0.10 per share) versus $13.7 million ($0.07 per share) in Q2 2025 — an increase of approximately 55.5% in net earnings and ~42.9% in EPS. Year-to-date earnings improved to $102.1 million ($0.49 per share) from $95.7 million ($0.47 per share), increases of ~6.7% and ~4.3%, respectively.
Negative Updates
Pipeline Segment Earnings Decline and Expense Pressure
Pipeline earnings decreased to $14.4 million in Q2 2026 from $15.4 million in Q2 2025 (down ~6.5%). Decline driven by lower other income and higher depreciation & amortization from a growth project placed in service, partially offset by short-term transportation and interruptible storage demand.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Quarterly Earnings Growth
Reported Q2 2026 earnings of $21.3 million ($0.10 per share) versus $13.7 million ($0.07 per share) in Q2 2025 — an increase of approximately 55.5% in net earnings and ~42.9% in EPS. Year-to-date earnings improved to $102.1 million ($0.49 per share) from $95.7 million ($0.47 per share), increases of ~6.7% and ~4.3%, respectively.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MDU reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93–$1.00 (assumptions: normal weather, economic/operating conditions, continued customer growth, execution of approved capital programs and constructive regulatory outcomes) and reiterated a long‑term EPS growth objective of 6%–8%; its 2026–2030 capital program totals ≈$3.1 billion (≈$1.1B electric, $1.4B natural gas distribution, $643M pipeline). The potential Bakken East project is being evaluated at ~$2.7–$3.2B, is being designed for 1.4 Bcf/d (nearly 1.2 Bcf/d contracted with an option to increase toward open‑season interest), with Phase 1/Phase 2 targeted in‑service late 2029/late 2030 and a FERC 7(c) filing anticipated in Q4 2026 (FID expected prior to filing). Other timeline/ regulatory metrics noted: Line Section 32 targets late 2028; a pipeline FERC rate case requests $31M (rates to be effective Dec 1, 2026, subject to refund); North Dakota electric rate case requests ≈$34.5M (interim ≈$26.3M beginning Sept. 1), Montana interim ≈$10.4M (with a $10M settlement filed), Wyoming approved ≈$5.8M (effective Apr. 1); Washington gas multiyear request $25.1M year 1/$18.1M year 2, and Oregon gas request ≈$12.2M. The company also noted data‑center exposure (Polaris Forge 3 ESA = 430 MW; >1 GW of ESAs signed, ~240 MW currently online) and year‑over‑year retail gas sales volumes +6.7% with customer growth +1.6%.

Mdu Resources Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is solid for a regulated utility profile (TTM net margin ~10%, EBITDA margin ~29%), and leverage looks manageable though meaningful (debt-to-equity ~0.89). The main drag is cash generation: despite positive operating cash flow (~$404M TTM), free cash flow is materially negative (~-$214M) and has deteriorated versus 2024, implying reliance on external funding during heavy capex periods.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
42
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.83B1.88B1.76B1.80B1.75B3.45B
Gross Profit776.50M404.90M571.94M518.53M490.06M687.28M
EBITDA490.79M525.40M507.09M635.40M392.69M555.01M
Net Income196.80M190.40M281.11M414.71M367.49M378.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.71B7.76B7.04B7.83B9.66B8.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments46.27M28.21M50.20M48.88M34.83M54.16M
Total Debt2.58B2.74B2.29B2.49B2.48B2.87B
Total Liabilities4.79B4.98B4.35B4.93B6.07B5.53B
Stockholders Equity2.93B2.77B2.69B2.91B3.59B3.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-350.91M-318.60M-20.51M-187.10M67.48M10.58M
Operating Cash Flow553.02M473.40M502.32M332.63M510.06M495.78M
Investing Cash Flow-893.82M-780.86M-552.68M-540.79M-638.88M-885.88M
Financing Cash Flow353.37M268.80M40.30M204.62M155.17M384.71M

Mdu Resources Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price21.25
Price Trends
50DMA
20.83
Negative
100DMA
21.26
Negative
200DMA
20.64
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
44.14
Neutral
STOCH
48.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.42, above the 50-day MA of 20.83, and above the 200-day MA of 20.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MDU.

Mdu Resources Group Risk Analysis

Mdu Resources Group disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mdu Resources Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Mdu Resources Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$4.20B6.5812.09%0.19%8.17%361.79%
67
Neutral
$9.35B19.0129.84%0.60%3.80%138.85%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
57
Neutral
$4.31B21.386.95%2.64%-29.93%-9.37%
55
Neutral
$871.98M-5.58-21.01%2.49%7.52%-1.67%
49
Neutral
$479.82M-0.72-51.47%2.84%73.46%-259.87%
47
Neutral
$4.73B-9.01-22.42%26.39%12.39%40.27%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MDU
Mdu Resources Group
19.95
3.75
23.13%
CODI
Compass Diversified Holdings
11.68
4.03
52.68%
IEP
Icahn Enterprises
6.79
0.24
3.60%
SEB
Seaboard
4,259.96
581.62
15.81%
VMI
Valmont
485.83
113.01
30.31%
FIP
FTAI Infrastructure Incorporation
3.73
-1.46
-28.12%

Mdu Resources Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mdu Resources Group Releases Q2 2026 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Mdu Resources Group, a diversified energy and infrastructure company, released an investor presentation covering its second quarter 2026 financial results, made available through its corporate website’s investor relations section. The materi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2026