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Eli Lilly & Co
(NYSE:LLY)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$1,580.00
▲(28.07% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is driven primarily by exceptional financial performance (very high margins and large cash generation) and a constructive technical uptrend. The latest earnings call reinforces momentum via raised guidance and strong product uptake, but valuation is a meaningful offset due to a high P/E and low dividend yield, and technical indicators show overbought conditions that add near-term volatility risk.
Positive Factors
Exceptional revenue growth
Rapid growth across leading metabolic medicines and multiple therapeutic areas indicates strong demand, expanding patient adoption, and increasing commercial scale. Broadening growth beyond a single product can support durable revenue momentum and strengthen Lilly’s position over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent pricing pressure
Lower realized prices can constrain revenue quality and margin expansion even when prescription volumes grow. Continued payer and government pricing pressure may require Lilly to depend increasingly on sustained volume gains, product launches, and mix improvements to preserve earnings momentum.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional revenue growth
Rapid growth across leading metabolic medicines and multiple therapeutic areas indicates strong demand, expanding patient adoption, and increasing commercial scale. Broadening growth beyond a single product can support durable revenue momentum and strengthen Lilly’s position over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Eli Lilly & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Maps revenue across countries and regions to show market concentration and diversification. A heavy tilt toward a single market increases vulnerability to local policy or pricing shifts, while broad geographic growth suggests more durable sales and opportunity to offset regional downturns.
Maps revenue across countries and regions to show market concentration and diversification. A heavy tilt toward a single market increases vulnerability to local policy or pricing shifts, while broad geographic growth suggests more durable sales and opportunity to offset regional downturns.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEli Lilly & Co (LLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.33T
Dividend Yield0.47%
Average Volume (3M)2.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E)45.9
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth45.51%
EPS Growth50.48%
CountryUS
Employees50,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - General
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)30.89
Shares Outstanding941,357,060
10 Day Avg. Volume2,449,775
30 Day Avg. Volume2,422,359
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.48
Price to Book (P/B)36.37
Price to Sales (P/S)14.81
P/FCF Ratio107.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda24.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$1,493.39Price Target Upside21.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering24
EPS Forecast (FY)35.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$90.33B
Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. Thi...
How the Company Makes Money
Eli Lilly primarily makes money by selling patented, branded prescription medicines. Revenue is recognized largely from product sales to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, hospitals, and other customers, with net sales reduced by estimated reb...
Eli Lilly & Co Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Lilly reported 39% quarterly revenue growth, raised full-year guidance, delivered broad product and international growth, demonstrated strong uptake for Mounjaro, Zepbound, the Medicare Bridge program, and Foundayo, and advanced regulatory, clinical, manufacturing, and business-development initiatives. The main challenges were U.S. and expected future pricing pressure, nonrecurring 2026 revenue benefits, higher investment spending, oral-adherence uncertainty, adverse-event discontinuations at the highest Olora-TZP dose, and ongoing regulatory and reimbursement timing. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Q3 Revenue Growth
Q3 revenue grew 39% compared with Q3 2025, or nearly $7 billion, driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and strong momentum across therapeutic areas. Key product revenue increased by over $6 billion.
Negative Updates
U.S. Price Declines
U.S. revenue increased 34%, but this was partially offset by a 7% decline in price. Excluding a favorable adjustment to rebate and discount estimates, U.S. price declined 10%.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q3 Revenue Growth
Q3 revenue grew 39% compared with Q3 2025, or nearly $7 billion, driven by Mounjaro, Zepbound, and strong momentum across therapeutic areas. Key product revenue increased by over $6 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Lilly expects full year revenue to be between $91 and $92 billion, non GAAP performance margin to be between 52.5%, and non GAAP earnings per share of $35 to $36, reflecting an increase of $4.07 per share at the midpoint of the range before updates to the Q3 acquired IPR&D charges of $4.57 per share. For 2027, Lilly expects sustained volume growth in the incretin market, the full year impact of the Medicare GLP-1 bridge access, and the launch of Foundayo in type 2 diabetes in The US; outside The US, it expects Mounjaro's leadership position to continue and expects to launch Foundayo, which will drive additional market growth. Lilly expects net realized price to be a headwind more than offset by volume growth, while noting that 2026 revenue benefited from approximately $2 billion of 1-time items primarily related to milestones payments and changes in estimates for rebates and discounts that it does not expect to recur; it expects a global rollout of Foundayo in all major markets in 2027.Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
93
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 86.46B | 65.18B | 45.04B | 34.12B | 28.54B | 28.32B |
| Gross Profit | 72.31B | 54.13B | 36.63B | 27.04B | 21.91B | 21.01B |
| EBITDA | 44.75B | 31.69B | 18.81B | 8.57B | 8.66B | 8.04B |
| Net Income | 27.58B | 20.64B | 10.59B | 5.24B | 6.24B | 5.58B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 148.07B | 112.48B | 78.71B | 64.01B | 49.49B | 48.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.88B | 7.27B | 3.42B | 2.93B | 2.21B | 3.91B |
| Total Debt | 49.50B | 42.50B | 33.64B | 25.23B | 16.24B | 16.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 107.80B | 85.94B | 64.44B | 53.14B | 38.71B | 39.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.27B | 26.54B | 14.19B | 10.77B | 10.65B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.66B | 8.97B | 3.76B | -3.15B | 4.60B | 5.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.64B | 16.81B | 8.82B | 4.24B | 7.59B | 7.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.41B | -10.97B | -9.30B | -7.15B | -3.76B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.14B | -2.21B | 1.23B | 3.50B | -5.41B | -4.13B |
Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis
Positive
1233.66
Price Trends
1197.14
Positive
1186.42
Positive
1089.28
Positive
Market Momentum
47.35
Negative
77.89
Negative
74.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1233.66 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1246.01, above the 50-day MA of 1197.14, and above the 200-day MA of 1089.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 47.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.89 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LLY.
Eli Lilly & Co Risk Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eli Lilly & Co reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Eli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.33T | 45.89 | 83.65% | 0.47% | 45.51% | 50.48% | |
76 Outperform | $176.13B | 10.15 | 59.09% | 4.49% | 13.21% | 12.68% | |
75 Outperform | $251.94B | 28.73 | 89.32% | 2.13% | 9.89% | 31.69% | |
67 Neutral | $521.11B | 83.08 | -136.50% | 2.35% | 10.39% | 68.16% | |
66 Neutral | $173.95B | 40.33 | 4.89% | 5.64% | -0.21% | -59.71% | |
63 Neutral | $368.89B | 152.57 | 5.10% | 2.27% | 5.16% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
LLY
Eli Lilly & Co
1,417.54
526.63
59.11%
AMGN
Amgen
466.01
177.71
61.64%
MRK
Merck & Company
149.52
69.38
86.58%
NVO
Novo Nordisk
40.00
-7.49
-15.78%
PFE
Pfizer
30.52
7.48
32.45%
ABBV
AbbVie
294.89
89.09
43.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.