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Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) AI Stock Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co
(NYSE:LLY)
Eli Lilly scores well on the strength of outstanding financial performance — tripling revenue, 32% net margins, and a sharp free cash flow inflection to $19.7B — reinforced by a Q3 showing 39% growth and raised full-year guidance. Technicals confirm a firmly established uptrend across all major moving averages, though momentum readings suggest the move is extended. The primary constraint is valuation: a 44.4x P/E and a 0.49% yield price in sustained hyper-growth, leaving limited cushion if U.S. net-price pressure, the roughly $2B of non-recurring 2026 revenue, or rising R&D spend weigh on results. Elevated debt of $49.5B and product concentration in the incretin franchise remain secondary risks, partly offset by improving leverage and a broadening pipeline.
Eli Lilly & Co Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by GeographyMaps revenue across countries and regions to show market concentration and diversification. A heavy tilt toward a single market increases vulnerability to local policy or pricing shifts, while broad geographic growth suggests more durable sales and opportunity to offset regional downturns.
International markets have shifted from support roles to primary growth drivers—Europe and Rest of World show clear step‑ups tied to rapid Mounjaro/Zepbound adoption and access wins, with China and Japan accelerating more recently. The U.S. remains the largest revenue base, but the global diversification materially reduces reliance on U.S. net‑price trends and helps explain the guidance raise; watch H2 seasonality, rebate/price dynamics and retatrutide regulatory timing as key risks that could temper this volume‑led momentum.
The FlyEli Lilly & Co (LLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.33T
- Dividend Yield
- 0.47%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 2.55M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 45.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.41
- Revenue Growth
- 45.51%
- EPS Growth
- 50.48%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 50,000
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Sector Strength
- 51
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
Eli Lilly & Co Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Eli Lilly and Company is a prominent global pharmaceutical firm dedicated to the research, development, and commercialization of human medicines across the world. Its therapeutic offerings include a comprehensive suite of diabetes medications. This e...
How the Company Makes Money
Eli Lilly primarily makes money by selling patented, branded prescription medicines. Revenue is recognized largely from product sales to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, hospitals, and other customers, with net sales reduced by estimated rebate...
Eli Lilly & Co Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive. Lilly reported 39% quarterly revenue growth, raised full-year guidance, delivered broad product and international growth, demonstrated strong uptake for Mounjaro, Zepbound, the Medicare Bridge program, and Foundayo, and advanced regulatory, clinical, manufacturing, and business-development initiatives. The main challenges were U.S. and expected future pricing pressure, nonrecurring 2026 revenue benefits, higher investment spending, oral-adherence uncertainty, adverse-event discontinuations at the highest Olora-TZP dose, and ongoing regulatory and reimbursement timing. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, Lilly expects full year revenue to be between $91 and $92 billion, non GAAP performance margin to be between 52.5%, and non GAAP earnings per share of $35 to $36, reflecting an increase of $4.07 per share at the midpoint of the range before updates to the Q3 acquired IPR&D charges of $4.57 per share. For 2027, Lilly expects sustained volume growth in the incretin market, the full year impact of the Medicare GLP-1 bridge access, and the launch of Foundayo in type 2 diabetes in The US; outside The US, it expects Mounjaro's leadership position to continue and expects to launch Foundayo, which will drive additional market growth. Lilly expects net realized price to be a headwind more than offset by volume growth, while noting that 2026 revenue benefited from approximately $2 billion of 1-time items primarily related to milestones payments and changes in estimates for rebates and discounts that it does not expect to recur; it expects a global rollout of Foundayo in all major markets in 2027.
Eli Lilly & Co Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Exceptional earnings power anchors the score. Revenue has more than tripled since 2021 to $86.5B TTM with 45% latest-year growth, net income reached $27.6B, and operating margin expanded to 39% on elite ~79-83% gross margins (Income Statement 94). Cash generation inflected sharply, with operating cash flow at $30.6B and free cash flow swinging to +$19.7B TTM despite ~$11B of capacity-building capex (Cash Flow 85). The balance sheet is the weakest link (72): debt has risen to $49.5B, though rapid equity accumulation cut debt-to-equity from 2.37x to 1.23x and ROE sits near 84%. Residual risks are leverage, heavy reinvestment intensity, and revenue concentration in a narrow set of blockbuster products.
Income Statement
94Very PositiveBalance Sheet
72PositiveCash Flow
85Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 86.46B | 65.18B | 45.04B | 34.12B | 28.54B | 28.32B |
| Gross Profit | 72.31B | 54.13B | 36.63B | 27.04B | 21.91B | 21.01B |
| EBITDA | 44.75B | 31.69B | 18.81B | 8.57B | 8.66B | 8.04B |
| Net Income | 27.58B | 20.64B | 10.59B | 5.24B | 6.24B | 5.58B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 148.07B | 112.48B | 78.71B | 64.01B | 49.49B | 48.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.88B | 7.27B | 3.42B | 2.93B | 2.21B | 3.91B |
| Total Debt | 49.50B | 42.50B | 33.64B | 25.23B | 16.24B | 16.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 107.80B | 85.94B | 64.44B | 53.14B | 38.71B | 39.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.27B | 26.54B | 14.19B | 10.77B | 10.65B | 8.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.66B | 8.97B | 3.76B | -3.15B | 4.60B | 5.39B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.64B | 16.81B | 8.82B | 4.24B | 7.59B | 7.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -30.41B | -10.97B | -9.30B | -7.15B | -3.76B | -2.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.14B | -2.21B | 1.23B | 3.50B | -5.41B | -4.13B |
Eli Lilly & Co Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1417.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1246.01, above the 50-day MA of 1197.14, and above the 200-day MA of 1089.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 47.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.89 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LLY.
Eli Lilly & Co Risk Analysis
Eli Lilly & Co disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Eli Lilly & Co reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksEli Lilly & Co Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- LLY80Outperform
AMGN75Outperform
NVO75Outperform
PFE74Outperform
ABBV72Outperform
MRK63Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | 80Outperform | $1.33T | 45.89 | 83.65% | 0.47% | 45.51% | 50.48% |
| AMGN | 75Outperform | $251.94B | 28.73 | 89.32% | 2.13% | 9.89% | 31.69% |
| NVO | 75Outperform | $176.29B | 10.15 | 59.09% | 4.49% | 13.21% | 12.68% |
| PFE | 74Outperform | $173.95B | 40.33 | 4.89% | 5.64% | -0.21% | -59.71% |
| ABBV | 72Outperform | $521.11B | 50.58 | -223.75% | 2.35% | 10.68% | ― |
| MRK | 63Neutral | $368.89B | 152.57 | 5.10% | 2.27% | 5.16% | ― |
| Sector * | 51Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly And Company | 1417.54 | 526.63 | 59.11% | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc | 466.01 | 177.71 | 61.64% | |
| MRK | Merck & Company | 149.52 | 69.38 | 86.58% | |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk | 40.00 | -7.49 | -15.78% | |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc | 30.52 | 7.48 | 32.45% | |
| ABBV | Abbvie | 294.89 | 89.09 | 43.29% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026