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Karyopharm Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:KPTI)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(21.95% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—persistent losses, negative free cash flow, and deeply negative equity that elevates financing risk. Offsetting this, technicals are constructive with price above key moving averages and positive momentum, while the latest earnings call provided meaningful clinical catalysts and reaffirmed guidance, albeit with a short cash runway and competitive headwinds. Valuation remains difficult to support due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High Product Gross Margins
Exceptional gross margins (~96%) mean most incremental selinexor revenue converts to gross profit, creating strong product-level economics. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins the unit economics for scaling sales and can fund incremental R&D or commercialization if revenue expands.
Negative Factors
Short Cash Runway
A runway only into late Q3 2026 is a persistent liquidity constraint: without significant revenue acceleration or milestone receipts, the company will likely need capital within months. That compresses strategic optionality, increases financing/dilution pressure and elevates execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Product Gross Margins
Exceptional gross margins (~96%) mean most incremental selinexor revenue converts to gross profit, creating strong product-level economics. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins the unit economics for scaling sales and can fund incremental R&D or commercialization if revenue expands.
Read all positive factors
Karyopharm Therapeutics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Separates sales into product revenue, collaboration and licensing income, milestones, royalties, and other sources to show what actually drives cash flow. Reveals whether the company’s income is coming from repeatable drug sales (commercial traction for XPOVIO) or from irregular, one-time partner payments—key for judging predictability, growth sustainability, and runway risk.
Separates sales into product revenue, collaboration and licensing income, milestones, royalties, and other sources to show what actually drives cash flow. Reveals whether the company’s income is coming from repeatable drug sales (commercial traction for XPOVIO) or from irregular, one-time partner payments—key for judging predictability, growth sustainability, and runway risk.
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The Fly
The FlyKaryopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$231.39M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)228.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue Growth6.33%
EPS Growth-102.63%
CountryUS
Employees279
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-14.84
Shares Outstanding22,662,943
10 Day Avg. Volume494,784
30 Day Avg. Volume228,238
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.27
Price to Sales (P/S)0.55
P/FCF Ratio-1.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside50.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-4.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$137.21M
Karyopharm Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that has already brought products to market, focusing on identifying, advancing, and selling medications designed to disrupt nuclear export pathways. These drugs are primarily aimed at treat...
How the Company Makes Money
Karyopharm makes money primarily by commercializing its approved drug XPOVIO (selinexor). Revenue is generated mainly from net product sales of XPOVIO in markets where Karyopharm (directly or through commercial arrangements) sells the product, wit...
Karyopharm Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys strong clinical momentum and significant near-term catalysts: compelling Phase III SENTRY results with a statistically robust spleen response and an intriguing overall survival signal, completed enrollment in EC042 with prior SIENDO data showing deep and durable PFS benefit, ASCO presentation and planned mid-2026 manuscript, and quarter-over-quarter revenue improvement driven by gross-to-net gains. These positives are tempered by competitive pressure that reduced underlying demand for XPOVIO, gross-to-net volatility, continued net losses and high operating spend, and a limited cash runway into late Q3 2026 that may necessitate additional financing or milestone events. Regulatory timing and the need for further data granularity (e.g., deaths attribution) add some near-term uncertainty. On balance, the clinical and strategic highlights are material and potentially value-creating, though execution and financing risks remain.Positive Updates
SENTRY Phase III: Strong Spleen Volume Reduction (SVR35)
Co-primary SVR35 at week 24: 50% for selinexor + ruxolitinib vs 28% for ruxolitinib alone (p < 0.0001). Rapid meaningful spleen volume reductions observed as early as week 12 and sustained through week 36, indicating a durable effect.
Negative Updates
Underlying Demand Decline and Competitive Pressure
Company stated underlying demand for XPOVIO was lower vs Q1 2025 due to new competitive entrants; the quarter's net product revenue growth was driven primarily by favorable gross-to-net dynamics rather than organic demand growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
SENTRY Phase III: Strong Spleen Volume Reduction (SVR35)
Co-primary SVR35 at week 24: 50% for selinexor + ruxolitinib vs 28% for ruxolitinib alone (p < 0.0001). Rapid meaningful spleen volume reductions observed as early as week 12 and sustained through week 36, indicating a durable effect.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call Karyopharm reaffirmed full‑year 2026 financial guidance of total revenue $130–150M and U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue $115–130M, with combined R&D + SG&A expected to be $230–245M; Q1 results were $35.1M total revenue (vs. $30.0M a year ago), U.S. XPOVIO net product revenue $29.2M (vs. $21.1M), gross‑to‑net 21.8% (vs. 45% in Q1‑2025; ~26% underlying ex‑adjustments), R&D $33.8M, SG&A $26.7M, net loss $22.4M (vs. $23.5M) and a ~20% reduction in loss from operations, and cash/cash equivalents/restricted cash of $91.2M (including ~ $50M financing) providing runway into late Q3 2026; operational milestones and metrics include completed enrollment in EC042 with 257 ITT / ~220 MITT (primary analysis) and top‑line EC042 readout expected mid‑2026, Phase III SENTRY efficacy signals (SVR35 at week 24: 50% selinexor+ruxolitinib vs. 28% ruxolitinib, p<0.0001; OS HR 0.43, nominal p=0.0222; VAF reduction ≥20% in 32% of combo patients; spleen responses as early as week 12 sustained to week 36), prior SIENDO PFS in p53 wild‑type of 13.7 vs 3.7 months (HR 0.41) with long‑term selinexor PFS up to 28.4 months (HR 0.44) and p53 wt/MMR‑proficient PFS ~40 months (HR 0.36), and commercial sizing assumptions of ~20,000 MF patients alive, ~7,000 annual first‑line MF diagnoses (~4,000 addressable), ~17,000 annual advanced/recurrent endometrial cases, and a modeled U.S. MF peak revenue opportunity of ~ $1B.Karyopharm Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 151.12M | 146.07M | 145.24M | 146.03M | 157.07M | 209.82M |
| Gross Profit | 145.11M | 140.12M | 139.23M | 141.09M | 151.86M | 206.42M |
| EBITDA | -147.92M | -149.85M | -38.60M | -118.42M | -139.31M | -96.98M |
| Net Income | -194.97M | -196.04M | -76.42M | -143.10M | -165.29M | -124.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 131.42M | 108.42M | 164.42M | 240.44M | 358.17M | 305.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 90.85M | 63.74M | 108.71M | 191.44M | 277.97M | 228.62M |
| Total Debt | 230.87M | 233.61M | 194.52M | 177.02M | 179.07M | 180.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 397.06M | 401.34M | 350.44M | 376.64M | 374.83M | 384.98M |
| Stockholders Equity | -265.65M | -292.93M | -186.02M | -136.21M | -16.66M | -79.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -59.11M | -75.37M | -127.63M | -92.72M | -149.67M | -112.83M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -59.11M | -75.37M | -127.49M | -92.72M | -149.55M | -107.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 31.29M | 43.38M | 95.47M | 7.94M | -104.26M | 141.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 79.85M | 30.05M | 41.65M | 1.12M | 193.74M | 73.65M |
Karyopharm Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
8.61
Price Trends
8.88
Positive
8.34
Positive
7.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
61.64
Neutral
56.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KPTI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.23, below the 50-day MA of 8.88, and above the 200-day MA of 7.35, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KPTI.
Karyopharm Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Karyopharm Therapeutics disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Karyopharm Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Karyopharm Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $231.39M | -0.68 | 73.11% | ― | 6.33% | -102.63% | |
52 Neutral | $49.25M | -2.81 | -0.97% | ― | ― | 21.67% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $418.42M | -1.93 | -53.23% | ― | -100.00% | -290.26% | |
47 Neutral | $40.45M | -0.21 | 75.79% | ― | -63.28% | 54.23% | |
42 Neutral | $31.06M | -1.32 | -218.67% | ― | ― | 48.96% | |
42 Neutral | $25.95M | -0.22 | -4086.31% | ― | ― | -73.57% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
KPTI
Karyopharm Therapeutics
10.09
5.78
133.99%
ATNM
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0.99
-0.41
-29.29%
BTAI
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1.40
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-22.65%
LTRN
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4.07
0.91
28.80%
IPSC
Century Therapeutics
2.41
1.85
331.90%
MDCX
Medicus Pharma Ltd
0.49
-2.50
-83.71%
Karyopharm Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Karyopharm Expands Equity Incentives and Launches PSU Program
Positive
May 28, 2026
At its May 21, 2026 annual meeting, Karyopharm Therapeutics shareholders approved a 3,000,000‑share increase to the 2022 Equity Incentive Plan and a 1,400,000‑share expansion of the Amended Restated 2013 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Karyopharm Strengthens Liquidity With New Equity Financing
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
On March 24, 2026, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. entered into a securities purchase agreement with RA Capital Management for a private placement of common stock, pre-funded warrants, and accompanying warrants, which closed on March 26, 2026 and gen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.