Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)
NYSE:KGS
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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
(NYSE:KGS)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
â–²(13.83% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/16/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating performance and an improved balance-sheet profile, reinforced by upbeat guidance and compression outperformance. It is tempered by stretched technical conditions, very high valuation (P/E ~70), and cash-flow/leverage timing risks tied to heavy near-term investment and long equipment lead times.
Positive Factors
High Compression Margins & Utilization
Sustained industry-leading gross margins (70%+) and near-full utilization indicate durable pricing power and operating leverage in compression services. High utilization preserves recurring revenue, improves cash conversion, and gives flexibility to fund growth and absorb cyclical demand swings over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Extreme Equipment Lead Times
Multi-year lead times (180+ weeks) materially slow fleet scaling and delay revenue realization from ordered units. They amplify execution risk, increase working capital and prepayment needs, and reduce management’s ability to respond quickly to demand shifts or cost changes, pressuring medium-term growth pacing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Compression Margins & Utilization
Sustained industry-leading gross margins (70%+) and near-full utilization indicate durable pricing power and operating leverage in compression services. High utilization preserves recurring revenue, improves cash conversion, and gives flexibility to fund growth and absorb cyclical demand swings over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Maps the company’s assets to each segment to show where capital is tied up and how asset-heavy each line of business is. Offers insight into capital intensity, maintenance and replacement needs, potential bottlenecks, and which segments may require more investment or be candidates for divestiture.
Maps the company’s assets to each segment to show where capital is tied up and how asset-heavy each line of business is. Offers insight into capital intensity, maintenance and replacement needs, potential bottlenecks, and which segments may require more investment or be candidates for divestiture.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.98B
Dividend Yield4.86%
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)87.5
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth3.99%
EPS Growth38.62%
CountryUS
Employees1,300
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding100,918,915
10 Day Avg. Volume1,508,254
30 Day Avg. Volume2,111,255
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.75
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio11.34
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$82.30Price Target Upside30.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.53B
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) serves the United States' oil and gas sector by furnishing critical contract compression infrastructure to its clients. The company's business activities are structured into two main divisions: Compression Operation...
How the Company Makes Money
KGS primarily makes money by providing contract natural gas compression services, where customers pay for access to compression horsepower and associated operations and maintenance. Revenue is generally earned through service agreements that inclu...
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and financial momentum in the core compression business—record adjusted EBITDA, industry-leading margins (70.6%), 98% utilization, solid revenue growth (+5% YoY) and growing pricing power—while outlining an aggressive, well-resourced expansion into distributed power (2 GW by 2030) with attractive return targets (>15% unlevered). Key risks include extreme equipment lead times (>180 weeks), substantial near-term power CapEx ($400–500M in 2026) with some front-loaded payments, and temporary leverage elevation and margin uncertainty in the new Power segment. On balance, the positives—sustained compression outperformance, strong cash flow, acquisition integration progress, and a clear growth plan for Power—outweigh the execution and timing risks described.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $346 million in Q1 2026, up 5% year over year, driven by new horsepower, price increases and operational execution.
Negative Updates
Severe Supply Chain and Lead-Time Constraints
Lead times for new large-horsepower equipment are at record levels—stated at over 180 weeks (more than three years) for certain 3.6k inline gas compression engines—creating long delivery horizons and execution risk.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $346 million in Q1 2026, up 5% year over year, driven by new horsepower, price increases and operational execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kodiak updated 2026 guidance calling for adjusted EBITDA of $820–$860 million and discretionary cash flow of $520–$570 million, with the guidance reflecting three quarters of contribution from the DPS acquisition; Compression Infrastructure adjusted gross margin was raised to 68.5%–70% with compression growth CapEx of $245–$275 million to add roughly 170k horsepower this year (part of a targeted 150k HP per year cadence toward at least 5.2 million HP by decade-end), maintenance and other CapEx each up ~$5 million, and over 40% of 2027 new-unit deliveries already contracted; Power Infrastructure is guided to $95–$125 million of 2026 revenue with 60%–70% adjusted gross margins, power growth CapEx this year of $400–$500 million (about $90 million tied to gensets/BOP to be delivered in 2026), equipment orders already exceed 260 MW with ~61 MW arriving in 2026 and the remainder 2027–2029, advanced talks for another ~1.3 GW, modeled equipment costs of ~$1.1–$1.2M/MW (roughly $1.5M/MW all-in including BOP), and a target of adding ~300–500 MW/year from 2027–2030 to reach ~2 GW by year-end 2030.Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.32B | 1.31B | 1.16B | 850.38M | 707.91M | 606.38M |
| Gross Profit | 575.54M | 551.99M | 440.66M | 316.64M | 266.10M | 236.15M |
| EBITDA | 566.76M | 590.67M | 533.32M | 440.52M | 479.69M | 367.07M |
| Net Income | 67.92M | 80.52M | 49.90M | 20.07M | 106.27M | 180.96M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.49B | 4.32B | 4.44B | 3.24B | 3.21B | 3.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 94.36M | 3.18M | 4.75M | 5.56M | 20.43M | 28.80M |
| Total Debt | 45.90M | 43.80M | 2.65B | 1.83B | 2.73B | 1.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.32B | 3.11B | 3.06B | 2.10B | 2.98B | 2.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.18B | 1.21B | 1.36B | 1.14B | 229.09M | 960.07M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 200.31M | 284.27M | -8.97M | 46.53M | -39.50M | 48.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 556.59M | 599.74M | 327.99M | 266.33M | 219.85M | 249.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -332.02M | -285.29M | -292.47M | -218.42M | -251.38M | -202.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -132.16M | -316.02M | -36.33M | -62.77M | 23.17M | -43.25M |
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
63.25
Price Trends
67.94
Positive
60.27
Positive
47.54
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
52.50
Neutral
54.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 63.25 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.46, below the 50-day MA of 67.94, and above the 200-day MA of 47.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KGS.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $6.48B | 19.79 | 22.28% | 3.08% | 22.66% | 55.80% | |
73 Outperform | $3.60B | 10.57 | 34.58% | ― | 2.39% | 88.22% | |
72 Outperform | $6.98B | 87.54 | 5.47% | 4.86% | 3.99% | 38.62% | |
70 Outperform | $4.38B | 51.58 | 6.16% | 1.16% | 4.50% | -62.41% | |
68 Neutral | $3.63B | 27.70 | 651.13% | 9.11% | 12.18% | 45.56% | |
67 Neutral | $530.39M | 24.26 | 7.99% | 0.63% | 11.28% | 27.38% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
KGS
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
69.18
36.23
109.92%
AROC
Archrock
36.97
12.76
52.68%
NGS
Natural Gas Services Group
42.10
15.09
55.84%
OII
Oceaneering International
36.06
14.72
68.98%
USAC
USA Compression
25.06
1.83
7.89%
WHD
Cactus
54.69
9.73
21.63%
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Completes Equity Offering for Expansion
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. entered an underwriting agreement with Goldman Sachs Co. LLC and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC to sell 10,563,380 shares of common stock at $71.00 per share, with underwriters exercising in full a 30-day op...
Dividends
Kodiak Gas Services Declares First-Quarter 2026 Cash Dividend
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. announced its board of directors had declared a first-quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.49 per share of common stock, payable on May 28, 2026 to stockholders of record as of May 18, 2026. The move signals t...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Kodiak Gas Services Adopts Shareholder-Friendly Governance Amendments
Positive
May 7, 2026
At its May 7, 2026 annual meeting, Kodiak Gas Services shareholders approved amendments to the company’s certificate of incorporation to begin phasing out its classified board structure and to remove certain supermajority voting requirements...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Kodiak Gas Services Completes Distributed Power Solutions Acquisition
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services completed its previously announced acquisition of Distributed Power Solutions, LLC, which has been rebranded as Kodiak Power Solutions, a division of Kodiak Gas Services. The deal, executed via cash considerat...
Private Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Issues $1 Billion Senior Notes
Neutral
Mar 24, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services, LLC issued $1 billion of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due April 1, 2031, with semi-annual interest payments starting October 1, 2026, and a tiered optional redemption schedule beginning in 2028. The notes a...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Prices $1 Billion Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services announced that its subsidiary priced a $1.0 billion private offering of 5.875% senior unsecured notes due April 1, 2031, with closing expected on March 20, 2026, and the notes guaranteed on a senior unsecured...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Kodiak Gas Services Launches Notes Offering for Acquisition
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Kodiak Gas Services announced that its subsidiary Kodiak Gas Services, LLC launched a $750 million private offering of senior unsecured notes due 2031, targeted exclusively at qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A and c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.