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HCA Healthcare
(NYSE:HCA)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$462.00
▲(7.75% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is anchored by solid operating performance and cash generation, but is pulled down by elevated financial risk from high leverage/negative equity and a meaningful 2026 payer-mix headwind highlighted in the latest earnings call. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~14) and near-term technicals have improved versus short moving averages, but longer-term trend signals remain weaker.
Positive Factors
Large-scale profitable healthcare network
HCA’s substantial hospital and outpatient network supports meaningful scale, healthy operating profitability, and broad service coverage. This earnings base can fund continued investment, reinforce its market position, and provide resilience as patient volumes and care settings evolve over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
High debt alongside negative equity leaves HCA with a limited traditional capital cushion and increases financial risk during operating weakness. Leverage can constrain flexibility for investment or acquisitions, while interest and refinancing obligations make sustained cash generation especially important.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large-scale profitable healthcare network
HCA’s substantial hospital and outpatient network supports meaningful scale, healthy operating profitability, and broad service coverage. This earnings base can fund continued investment, reinforce its market position, and provide resilience as patient volumes and care settings evolve over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
HCA Healthcare Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Highlights profitability across different business units, providing insight into which segments drive earnings and where operational efficiencies or challenges lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHCA Healthcare (HCA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$92.38B
Dividend Yield0.72%
Average Volume (3M)1.35M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.2
Beta (1Y)0.29
Revenue Growth7.31%
EPS Growth25.54%
CountryUS
Employees320,000
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)29.96
Shares Outstanding216,501,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,156,335
30 Day Avg. Volume1,353,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)-17.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$454.15Price Target Upside5.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)29.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$78.51B
HCA Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. The organization manages a network of general and acute care hospitals that provide a full spectrum of me...
How the Company Makes Money
HCA makes money primarily by delivering healthcare services and being reimbursed for those services by third-party payers and patients. Its core revenue stream is patient service revenue generated when patients receive care at HCA facilities (e.g....
HCA Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: operational demand and underlying profitability showed resilience (11% EPS growth, volume increases outside the exchanges, meaningful Medicaid supplemental payments, ongoing capital deployment and share repurchases). However, a large, concentrated payer-mix shock from the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits (exchange enrollment down ~15% and near 1-for-1 migration to uninsured) created a significant adjusted EBITDA headwind (~$400M in Q2 and an estimated $1.0B–$1.2B full-year impact), contributed to lower cash flow this quarter, and pressured elective surgical volumes. Management has responded by updating guidance (now aligned with long-term adjusted EBITDA growth of 4%–6%), advancing cost resiliency programs, and preserving capital allocation priorities. Overall, positives (profitability, cost discipline, supplemental payment benefits, and network expansion) are balanced against material policy-driven revenue and payer-mix challenges.Positive Updates
Earnings Per Share Growth
Diluted EPS grew 11% in the quarter and 11% year-to-date, reflecting underlying profitability despite headwinds.
Negative Updates
Health Insurance Exchange Attrition and Payer-Mix Shift
Exchange-covered admissions declined ~15% (Q1 and Q2), and management now observes almost a 1-for-1 migration of former exchange members to uninsured (versus prior assumption of 80%–85%). The exchanges now represent ~6.8% of equivalent admissions and uninsured admissions are up ~15%, representing just over 10% of total equivalent admissions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings Per Share Growth
Diluted EPS grew 11% in the quarter and 11% year-to-date, reflecting underlying profitability despite headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
HCA updated 2026 guidance to revenue of $77.0–$79.5B, adjusted EBITDA of $15.4–$16.1B, net income attributable to HCA of $6.3–$6.7B and diluted EPS of $28.70–$30.50; it maintained a CapEx range of $5.0–$5.5B (Q2 CapEx $1.2B), plans to complete most authorized buybacks after repurchasing $2.1B in Q2, paid $171M of dividends and generated $2.3B of cash from operations (down 45% yoy). The guidance reflects an expected unfavorable exchange impact to adjusted EBITDA of roughly -$1.0B to -$1.2B (management now sees nearly a 1:1 migration from exchanges to uninsured), anticipated Medicaid supplemental payment net benefit of $300–$500M (including a $540M incremental Florida benefit and $400M of incremental state supplemental benefit recognized in Q2), a projected $100–$300M H2 headwind from supplemental payment timing, and an alignment with the company’s long‑term adjusted EBITDA growth target of 4–6% (management also expects Q4 EBITDA growth to be stronger than Q3).HCA Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 78.01B | 75.60B | 70.60B | 64.97B | 60.23B | 58.75B |
| Gross Profit | 22.12B | 31.37B | 28.68B | 25.58B | 23.18B | 22.49B |
| EBITDA | 15.84B | 15.60B | 13.90B | 12.72B | 13.29B | 14.25B |
| Net Income | 6.84B | 6.78B | 5.76B | 5.24B | 5.64B | 6.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 60.53B | 60.72B | 59.51B | 56.21B | 52.44B | 50.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.01B | 1.04B | 2.02B | 935.00M | 908.00M | 1.45B |
| Total Debt | 48.78B | 50.20B | 45.24B | 41.86B | 40.20B | 36.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 63.67B | 63.49B | 58.96B | 55.15B | 52.51B | 49.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | -6.58B | -6.03B | -2.50B | -1.77B | -2.77B | -933.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.00B | 7.69B | 5.64B | 4.69B | 4.13B | 5.38B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.12B | 12.64B | 10.51B | 9.43B | 8.52B | 8.96B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.54B | -4.99B | -4.93B | -5.32B | -3.39B | -2.64B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.50B | -8.55B | -4.58B | -4.09B | -5.66B | -6.66B |
HCA Healthcare Technical Analysis
Positive
428.76
Price Trends
415.98
Positive
402.41
Positive
444.38
Negative
Market Momentum
4.04
Positive
52.57
Neutral
21.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 428.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 425.44, above the 50-day MA of 415.98, and below the 200-day MA of 444.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCA.
HCA Healthcare Risk Analysis
HCA Healthcare disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. HCA Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
HCA Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $11.82B | 19.26 | 25.01% | 0.65% | 9.47% | 19.85% | |
73 Outperform | $10.01B | 26.15 | 16.53% | 0.15% | 18.89% | 15.48% | |
71 Outperform | $10.35B | 7.13 | 20.66% | 0.46% | 10.05% | 28.53% | |
70 Outperform | $20.82B | 9.90 | 50.63% | ― | 5.43% | 65.86% | |
62 Neutral | $92.38B | 14.24 | -112.87% | 0.72% | 7.31% | 25.54% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
42 Neutral | $383.55M | -1.20 | 20.91% | 0.70% | -5.25% | ― |
* Healthcare Sector Average
HCA
HCA Healthcare
426.69
-3.91
-0.91%
CYH
Community Health
2.72
-0.37
-11.97%
EHC
Encompass Health
119.80
-2.91
-2.37%
THC
Tenet Healthcare
258.62
58.86
29.47%
ENSG
The Ensign Group
171.78
-5.18
-2.93%
UHS
Universal Health
175.72
-30.22
-14.68%
HCA Healthcare Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
HCA Healthcare Expands Commercial Paper Program for Liquidity
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, HCA Inc., a direct wholly owned subsidiary of HCA Healthcare, doubled the maximum size of its unsecured commercial paper program from $4.0 billion to $8.0 billion in aggregate principal amount outstanding at any time. The notes i...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
HCA Healthcare Posts Solid Q2 2026 Results, Trims Outlook
Negative
Jul 24, 2026
HCA Healthcare reported its second-quarter 2026 results on July 24, 2026, posting an 8.7% year-on-year rise in revenue to $20.23 billion and a 2.8% increase in net income to $1.70 billion, with diluted EPS up 11.6% to $7.62 and adjusted EBITDA up ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HCA Healthcare Updates Q2 Results and 2026 Outlook
Negative
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, HCA Healthcare reported preliminary second-quarter 2026 results showing revenue of about $20.23 billion, up from $18.61 billion a year earlier, and net income of roughly $1.70 billion, or $7.62 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.