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Horizon Bancorp
(NASDAQ:HBNC)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$22.00
▲(12.65% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/23/26
HBNC scores well on valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and earnings-call outlook (positive sentiment with stable guidance, strong profitability metrics and improving credit indicators). Technicals are supportive with an uptrend across moving averages, though near-term readings look somewhat extended. The main constraint on the score is financial-statement volatility across periods, despite a strong TTM rebound and improved leverage/cash flow.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability recovery
The sharp return to profitability, supported by strong returns on assets and tangible equity, demonstrates meaningful earnings power in the current operating model. If maintained, these returns can strengthen internal capital generation and support continued investment in Horizon’s community banking franchise.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility
The large swing from profitability to a substantial 2025 loss shows that Horizon’s earnings profile has not yet demonstrated consistent durability through changing conditions. Such volatility can weaken confidence in future returns, complicate capital planning, and make reported improvement harder to extrapolate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability recovery
The sharp return to profitability, supported by strong returns on assets and tangible equity, demonstrates meaningful earnings power in the current operating model. If maintained, these returns can strengthen internal capital generation and support continued investment in Horizon’s community banking franchise.
Read all positive factors
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.05B
Dividend Yield3.14%
Average Volume (3M)653.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth423.76%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees478
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.09
Shares Outstanding51,344,520
10 Day Avg. Volume566,373
30 Day Avg. Volume653,850
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.26
Price to Sales (P/S)8.38
P/FCF Ratio11.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.00Price Target Upside22.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$307.93M
Horizon Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. acts as the parent organization for Horizon Bank, overseeing the delivery of a full spectrum of commercial and retail banking services. The company provides a variety of deposit options and extends diverse loan products, incl...
How the Company Makes Money
Horizon Bancorp primarily earns money through traditional banking activities. Its largest earnings driver is typically net interest income: the interest the bank earns on loans and interest-earning assets (e.g., commercial and consumer loans and c...
Horizon Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Management reported top-tier profitability, stable net interest margin performance, balanced mid-single-digit loan and deposit growth, improved problem-loan metrics, strong capital generation and largely unchanged full-year guidance. The main challenges were elevated commercial real estate payoffs, competitive pricing, expected increases in deposit costs, seasonal mortgage normalization and somewhat elevated third-quarter expenses, but management described these issues as manageable and maintained a positive outlook for the fourth quarter and 2027.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and Returns
Third-quarter annualized returns on average assets were above 1.7%, returns on tangible common equity exceeded 20%, and the net interest margin remained in the mid-4.3% range.
Negative Updates
Commercial Real Estate Decline
Commercial real estate loans declined $9.9 million during the quarter, reflecting a selective strategy in real estate segments and elevated payoffs in July and August as customers sold properties. Management said payoff activity was elevated in the second quarter and early third quarter, although it moderated in September.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and Returns
Third-quarter annualized returns on average assets were above 1.7%, returns on tangible common equity exceeded 20%, and the net interest margin remained in the mid-4.3% range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, full year period-end loan and deposit balances are still expected to grow mid-single digits, which from here would suggest more loan growth than deposit growth in Q4; fourth-quarter non-FTE net interest income is expected to be in the range of $66 million to $67 million, with continued modest expansion of the FTE net interest margin and one 25 basis point rate hike in early December. Fee income is still expected to be in the mid-$40 million range for the year, while, excluding the $3.1 million legal charge in the second quarter, expenses are still expected to be in the low to mid-$160 million range for the full year, with fourth-quarter expenses probably closer to $41 million; the effective tax rate for Q4 is anticipated to be in the range of 18% to 19%. Loan growth is expected to remain mid-single-digit, expected cash flows should approximate $150 million per quarter in the 6.25% range, and non-time interest-bearing deposit betas are expected to be in the range of 30% to 40% over time.Horizon Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 402.17M | 103.17M | 355.38M | 319.32M | 278.07M | 246.57M |
| Gross Profit | 298.41M | -30.39M | 182.11M | 180.30M | 243.37M | 230.35M |
| EBITDA | 162.25M | -187.13M | 39.65M | 50.97M | 118.68M | 116.32M |
| Net Income | 106.66M | -150.48M | 35.43M | 27.98M | 93.41M | 87.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.59B | 6.44B | 7.80B | 7.94B | 7.87B | 7.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.07B | 70.70M | 527.84M | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.76B |
| Total Debt | 330.78M | 404.49M | 1.35B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 828.27M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.89B | 5.75B | 7.04B | 7.22B | 7.20B | 6.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 699.30M | 688.25M | 763.58M | 718.81M | 677.38M | 723.21M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 86.62M | 74.28M | 1.28M | 81.16M | 87.95M | 104.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 87.50M | 79.23M | 6.37M | 88.94M | 94.38M | 106.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 746.45M | 979.48M | -52.78M | 329.52M | -1.02B | -344.85M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -216.83M | -1.21B | -186.68M | -15.44M | 455.55M | 582.30M |
Horizon Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
19.53
Price Trends
19.40
Positive
19.54
Positive
18.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Negative
66.66
Neutral
88.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HBNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.32, above the 50-day MA of 19.40, and above the 200-day MA of 18.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HBNC.
Horizon Bancorp Risk Analysis
Horizon Bancorp disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Horizon Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Horizon Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $820.93M | 10.63 | 14.12% | 3.02% | 0.24% | 12.12% | |
71 Outperform | $1.05B | 9.75 | 15.17% | 3.14% | 423.76% | ― | |
71 Outperform | $1.06B | 10.89 | 12.91% | 2.58% | 5.40% | 6.38% | |
70 Outperform | $483.58M | 10.70 | 9.96% | 2.05% | 0.96% | 1.16% | |
68 Neutral | $911.75M | 10.74 | 13.02% | 2.92% | 8.25% | 36.33% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $1.01B | 10.56 | 11.56% | 1.55% | 52.78% | 266.60% |
* Financial Sector Average
HBNC
Horizon Bancorp
20.37
4.68
29.79%
THFF
First Financial Indiana
76.67
23.93
45.37%
HBCP
Home Bancorp
61.44
8.13
15.25%
MBWM
Mercantile Bank
61.09
17.61
40.51%
EQBK
Equity Bancshares
48.88
7.95
19.42%
IBCP
Independent Bank
36.98
6.10
19.77%
Horizon Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Horizon Bancorp Reports Strong Third Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Oct 21, 2026
Horizon Bancorp, Inc. reported strong unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2026, with net income rising to $28.7 million, or $0.56 per diluted share, versus a net loss in the prior-year quarter, and $79.7 million of net income for ...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Horizon Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Sep 16, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc.’s Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $0.16 per share for its common stockholders. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on October 16, 2026, to shareholders of record as of October 2, 2...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Horizon Bancorp Adds Two Independent Directors to Board
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Horizon Bancorp, Inc. expanded its board from 11 to 13 directors and elected retired banking executives Nicholas J. Ritter and Charles W. Sulerzyski to the Class of 2027, also appointing them to the board of its subsidiary Hori...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.