Want to see GTN full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Gray Media
(NYSE:GTN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(1.63% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/11/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial footing and cash generation, reinforced by positive earnings-call execution and active deleveraging/refinancing steps. Technicals are constructive with the stock trading above major moving averages. The main constraint is valuation/earnings quality, with negative P/E and historically inconsistent profitability despite the attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Retransmission revenue strength
Strong retransmission revenue provides a recurring, contract-based contribution that is less dependent on spot advertising. Above-40% margins and expected acceleration from contract renewals and acquired stations can support durable cash generation over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and interest burden
Although leverage is improving, a 5.73x total net leverage ratio and roughly $440 million of annual interest expense leave limited room for operating setbacks. The debt burden can constrain investment, reduce cash available for shareholders, and keep refinancing execution important.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Retransmission revenue strength
Strong retransmission revenue provides a recurring, contract-based contribution that is less dependent on spot advertising. Above-40% margins and expected acceleration from contract renewals and acquired stations can support durable cash generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Gray Media (GTN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$486.18M
Dividend Yield6.99%
Average Volume (3M)960.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth-11.30%
EPS Growth-138.09%
CountryUS
Employees9,374
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryBroadcasting
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.47
Shares Outstanding93,115,074
10 Day Avg. Volume781,306
30 Day Avg. Volume960,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.17
Price to Sales (P/S)0.15
P/FCF Ratio2.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap13.80
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.17Price Target Upside25.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.63B
Gray Media Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gray Media, Inc. is a leading television broadcasting entity that manages an extensive portfolio of TV stations and digital assets throughout the United States, reaching 113 distinct television markets. In addition to its primary channels, the com...
How the Company Makes Money
Gray Media primarily generates revenue from (1) advertising and (2) retransmission-related fees tied to distribution of its stations by pay-TV and virtual MVPD providers, with additional contributions from political advertising and digital marketi...
Gray Media Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: revenue and adjusted EBITDA beat expectations, political and retransmission revenue outperformed guidance, digital growth accelerated, and management executed active M&A while taking concrete balance sheet actions (liquidity, debt repurchases, preferred redemption and authorized buybacks). Key challenges include persistent core advertising softness (mid-single-digit pressure ex-M&A), elevated corporate transaction costs, and a still-elevated leverage profile (total net leverage ~5.73x) that is improving but not yet to plan. Management emphasized using political cash flow to accelerate deleveraging and highlighted margin and synergy opportunities tied to retransmission and cost rationalization, but macro and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Total revenue of $839 million in Q2 2026, up 9% year-over-year and about $9 million above the high end of adjusted guidance.
Negative Updates
Core Advertising Softness
Core advertising was down 1% on an as-reported basis in Q2; adjusted for Q2 acquisitions core would be down mid-single digits year-over-year, with consumer-facing categories (restaurants, supermarkets, services) and some communications/health categories weak.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Total revenue of $839 million in Q2 2026, up 9% year-over-year and about $9 million above the high end of adjusted guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that Q2 came in ahead of guidance with total revenue of $839 million (up 9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $214 million and net income attributable to shareholders of $21 million; political was $83 million (vs. prior guide $60–70M) with Q3 political guidance of $165–185 million, net retransmission was $150 million (including ~$6M from Q2 acquisitions) with net retrans margins a touch above 40% and no further retrans negotiations in 2026; Q3 core advertising is guided flat on an as‑reported basis (which implies down mid‑single digits ex‑acquisitions), digital grew 12% YoY in Q2 with new local direct +5%, broadcast expenses before D&A were $569 million (middle of range, including ~$30M of transaction-related Opex), and management expects to deploy essentially all incremental political cash flow to deleveraging — liquidity was a little over $900 million at quarter end, leverage ratios were 2.55x first‑lien / 3.71x consolidated secured / 5.73x consolidated total net, the company recorded ~0.18 turns of deleveraging from acquisitions (vs. an expected 0.25), CapEx guidance was lowered to $120–130 million (from $140M), full‑year tax guide $80–100 million, full‑year interest expense guide ~$440 million (with potential to fall ~$30M+ via refinancings), and the company has redeemed $50 million of Series A preferred, repurchased $120 million of debt (plus board authorization to repurchase up to $250 million open‑market).Gray Media Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.15B | 3.10B | 3.64B | 3.28B | 3.68B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 820.00M | 761.00M | 1.24B | 898.00M | 1.43B | 803.00M |
| EBITDA | 438.00M | 598.00M | 1.25B | 734.00M | 1.38B | 632.00M |
| Net Income | -26.00M | -85.00M | 375.00M | -76.00M | 455.00M | 90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.44B | 10.44B | 10.54B | 10.64B | 11.15B | 11.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.00M | 368.00M | 135.00M | 21.00M | 61.00M | 189.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.89B | 5.81B | 5.69B | 6.24B | 6.53B | 6.83B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.71B | 7.63B | 7.61B | 8.02B | 8.39B | 8.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.73B | 2.81B | 2.93B | 2.62B | 2.77B | 2.41B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 146.00M | 181.00M | 608.00M | 300.00M | 393.00M | 93.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 250.00M | 289.00M | 751.00M | 648.00M | 829.00M | 300.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -339.00M | -63.00M | -28.00M | -291.00M | -503.00M | -3.53B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 66.00M | 7.00M | -609.00M | -397.00M | -454.00M | 2.65B |
Gray Media Technical Analysis
Positive
4.92
Price Trends
4.68
Negative
4.34
Positive
4.46
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.01
Negative
49.96
Neutral
75.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GTN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.56, above the 50-day MA of 4.68, and above the 200-day MA of 4.46, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GTN.
Gray Media Risk Analysis
Gray Media disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Gray Media reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Gray Media Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $486.18M | -9.74 | -0.94% | 6.99% | -11.30% | -138.09% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | $574.96M | 155.75 | 6.98% | 3.21% | 71.38% | ― | |
47 Neutral | $52.14M | -5.87 | -5.83% | 12.20% | -5.31% | -514.49% | |
43 Neutral | $15.64M | -0.07 | -903.00% | 0.52% | -16.12% | -1061.96% | |
42 Neutral | $200.17M | -0.15 | -127.81% | 1.42% | -14.18% | -2948.71% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GTN
Gray Media
4.58
0.29
6.66%
BBGI
Beasley Broadcast Group
7.62
2.10
38.04%
SSP
E. W. Scripps Company Class A
2.16
-0.24
-10.00%
EVC
Entravision
6.23
4.32
225.67%
SGA
Saga Communications
8.20
-2.96
-26.49%
Gray Media Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media boosts term loan, moves to redeem notes
Positive
Oct 9, 2026
On October 9, 2026, Gray Media entered an eighth amendment to its senior credit facility to increase Term Loan G by $75 million to a total of $675 million, with the incremental amount available on a delayed draw basis subject to customary conditio...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media Refinances Debt and Extends Maturities
Positive
Oct 9, 2026
On October 8, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. closed a refinancing of its senior credit facilities, adding a new $600 million Term Loan G due July 15, 2030, while trimming its revolving credit commitments from $750 million to $680 million and extending the...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media Completes $750 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Aug 21, 2026
On August 21, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. completed a $750 million offering of 7.500% senior secured first lien notes due 2034, issued at par and guaranteed on a senior secured first lien basis by its restricted subsidiaries. The new notes, which accru...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media Prices $750 Million Senior Secured Notes
Positive
Aug 18, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. announced it had priced a $750 million offering of 7.500% senior secured first lien notes due 2034 at 100% of par, with closing expected on August 21, 2026 subject to customary conditions. The company plans to ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Gray Media Launches New Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. announced it had launched a private offering of up to $750 million in senior secured first lien notes due 2034, exempt from U.S. Securities Act registration, targeting qualified institutional buyers and certain...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Gray Media Launches New Investor Outreach and Presentations
Positive
Aug 7, 2026
On August 7, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. began scheduling periodic meetings and presentations for prospective investors, signaling an effort to engage more actively with the investment community. The company has prepared a slide deck that may be used o...
Business Operations and Strategy
Gray Television Executes Significant Debt Repurchase Transaction
Positive
Jul 21, 2026
On July 21, 2026, Gray Media, Inc. repurchased $100 million of its 10.500% senior secured first lien notes due 2029 and $20 million of its 5.375% senior notes due 2031 in a privately negotiated transaction. The notes were bought back at par plus a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.