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Gold Royalty
(GROY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-14.77% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability (minimal leverage) and improving operating results, supported by a generally positive earnings call with reiterated guidance and visible growth catalysts. Offsetting these positives are weak cash flow quality (persistently negative free cash flow) and a very demanding valuation (extremely high P/E), while technicals are mixed with only partial trend confirmation.
Positive Factors
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Rapid growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA shows stronger monetization of the royalty portfolio and improving operating leverage. If production ramps continue as planned, the higher-margin model can support expanding earnings power and provide more capital for portfolio growth.
Negative Factors
Persistently Negative Free Cash Flow
Deeply negative free cash flow indicates that accounting profitability has not yet translated into cash generation after investment and spending. Continued shortfalls could require liquidity or external funding, limiting internally funded growth and reducing flexibility if project timing changes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Rapid growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA shows stronger monetization of the royalty portfolio and improving operating leverage. If production ramps continue as planned, the higher-margin model can support expanding earnings power and provide more capital for portfolio growth.
Read all positive factors
Gold Royalty (GROY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$655.66M
Dividend Yield2.21%
Average Volume (3M)1.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)404.3
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth82.28%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees15
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding231,680,710
10 Day Avg. Volume1,284,118
30 Day Avg. Volume1,528,752
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-9.51
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)45.29
P/FCF Ratio-10.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue28.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit40.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside42.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$32.64M
Gold Royalty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gold Royalty Corp. is a financial entity focused on precious metal royalties, providing capital solutions to the broader metals and mining industry. Its business model centers on acquiring diverse royalty interests, streaming agreements, and simil...
How the Company Makes Money
Gold Royalty makes money by owning royalty and streaming interests on mining assets and collecting payments (or metal deliveries) when those mines produce. Its core revenue streams are: (1) Net smelter return (NSR) royalties and similar royalties,...
Gold Royalty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture — record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, meaningful GEO growth, a clean balance sheet with no debt and a large undrawn credit facility, and a clear pipeline of organic and acquisitive growth catalysts (including recent royalty additions). Notable near-term negatives included Q2 gold and equity price weakness (gold -13% sequentially; GDX/GDXJ -18%; company stock -23%), a still-wide 2026 guidance range, and competitive pressures on large acquisitions. On balance, management emphasized durable margins from an NSR-heavy portfolio, strong cash generation, and visibility to multi-year production growth, outweighing the market-driven and execution risks described.Positive Updates
Record Half-Year Financial Performance
Total revenue, land agreement proceeds, and interest for the half-year ended June 30 was $17.3 million, a 116% increase year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA for the half-year was $12.6 million, up 212% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Gold Price and Equity Volatility
Q2 2026 gold price fell ~13% (nearly $600/oz) sequentially, though still up ~18% year-over-year (~$700/oz); gold mining ETFs (GDX and GDXJ) each fell 18% in Q2 and Gold Royalty's stock was down 23% in the quarter, reflecting sector risk-off (cited Iran war impacts).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Half-Year Financial Performance
Total revenue, land agreement proceeds, and interest for the half-year ended June 30 was $17.3 million, a 116% increase year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA for the half-year was $12.6 million, up 212% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance of 7,500–9,300 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) (built on a $5,150/oz gold assumption) and noted Q2 GEOs of 1,757 and H1 GEOs of 3,677 (≈44% of the guidance midpoint of 8,400); H1 total revenue, land agreement proceeds and interest was $17.3M (up 116% YoY) with Q2 revenue $7.9M, adjusted EBITDA $12.6M YTD (up 212% YoY) and $5.6M in Q2 (vs. $2.4M Q2‑2025), a clean balance sheet with $11.3M cash, no debt and a fully undrawn $150M credit facility, and they expect volumes to be second‑half weighted as assets ramp (key catalysts include VARs commercial by Sept/full run‑rate by year‑end, Ren first production by year‑end, South Railroad construction mid‑2026 with potential late‑2027/early‑2028 production), while reiterating longer‑term growth to 28,000–34,000 GEOs by 2030 (~6× 2025).Gold Royalty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.56M | 15.61M | 10.10M | 3.05M | 3.94M | 191.99K |
| Gross Profit | 15.97M | 11.93M | 6.63M | 2.10M | 2.19M | 23.33K |
| EBITDA | 12.95M | 6.67M | 1.94M | -30.04M | -15.61M | -12.41M |
| Net Income | 1.50M | -4.13M | -3.41M | -26.76M | -17.35M | -17.43M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 850.11M | 822.76M | 737.51M | 690.99M | 688.61M | 279.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.14M | 13.96M | 2.48M | 1.78M | 14.25M | 11.02M |
| Total Debt | 54.00K | 197.00K | 50.00M | 33.06M | 9.66M | 11.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 125.61M | 123.56M | 179.21M | 170.04M | 152.40M | 54.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 724.50M | 699.20M | 558.30M | 520.95M | 536.22M | 225.32M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -96.80M | -66.79M | -43.55M | -35.58M | -38.97M | -22.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.81M | 6.17M | 2.54M | -6.88M | -19.26M | -11.95M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -80.41M | -68.66M | -44.07M | -33.49M | 10.58M | -69.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 77.88M | 72.63M | 42.35M | 35.96M | 5.83M | 90.95M |
Gold Royalty Technical Analysis
Negative
3.52
Price Trends
3.17
Negative
2.97
Negative
3.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
40.88
Neutral
45.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GROY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, above the 50-day MA of 3.17, and above the 200-day MA of 3.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GROY.
Gold Royalty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
GROY
Gold Royalty
2.83
-0.74
-20.73%
CMP
Compass Minerals International
21.27
3.89
22.38%
USAU
US Gold
10.66
-5.21
-32.83%
GORO
Goldgroup Mining
3.30
0.21
6.73%
HYMC
Hycroft Mining Holding
15.44
8.69
128.74%
DC
Dakota Gold Corp
5.27
1.27
31.75%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.