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Great Elm Capital
(NASDAQ:GECC)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-15.82% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
GECC’s score is held back primarily by weak/volatile financial performance (recent losses and negative ROE) and bearish technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a relatively positive earnings call backdrop (NAV growth, dividend coverage in the quarter, improved asset coverage and extended maturities) and support from the very high dividend yield, though the negative P/E and variability risks temper the valuation benefit.
Positive Factors
Improved Capital Structure
Debt reduction, stronger asset coverage, and extended maturities improve GECC’s financial flexibility over the medium term. The longer liability runway lowers refinancing pressure and gives management more time to deploy capital, manage portfolio risk, and protect NAV through changing credit conditions.
Negative Factors
Weak and Volatile Earnings
The latest loss and negative TTM revenue show that accounting earnings remain unstable despite stronger results in earlier periods. This weakens confidence in sustainable earnings power, can pressure NAV and distributions, and leaves GECC more exposed if portfolio income or realizations soften.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Capital Structure
Debt reduction, stronger asset coverage, and extended maturities improve GECC’s financial flexibility over the medium term. The longer liability runway lowers refinancing pressure and gives management more time to deploy capital, manage portfolio risk, and protect NAV through changing credit conditions.
Read all positive factors
Great Elm Capital (GECC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$65.98M
Dividend Yield24.63%
Average Volume (3M)54.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-11.06%
EPS Growth-288.02%
CountryUS
Employees12
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.22
Shares Outstanding13,889,750
10 Day Avg. Volume40,091
30 Day Avg. Volume54,075
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio-30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue-15.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-8.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.95
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.90M
Great Elm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Great Elm Capital Corp. functions as a business development company (BDC) primarily specializing in providing capital to mid-market enterprises. The firm's investment strategy focuses on acquiring debt instruments, including loans and mezzanine fi...
Great Elm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized several positive operational and financial developments: QoQ NAV growth (~3%), realized and unrealized gains (notably from CoreWeave), improved balance sheet metrics (asset coverage up to 166.4%, debt/equity improved to 1.51x), manager fee waivers accretive to NAV, targeted share repurchases at a ~37% NAV discount, and profitable GESF verticals. Offsetting risks include a sequential decline in reported NII driven in part by smaller incentive fee waivers, quarter-to-quarter earnings variability tied to one-time items (insurance dividend, CoreWeave distributions) and Prestige churn, and a competitive market making BSL yields harder to find. Overall, positives—particularly NAV growth, deleveraging, cash generation from realizations, and disciplined capital actions—outweigh the noted short-term variability and market challenges.Positive Updates
NAV Growth
Net asset value increased to $110.4M ($7.95/share) from $107.5M ($7.74/share) quarter-over-quarter, a nearly 3% increase driven by realized and unrealized gains (including CoreWeave).
Negative Updates
Sequential NII Decline
Reported NII fell to $4.5M ($0.32/share) in Q2 from $5.0M ($0.36/share) in Q1 (approximately a 10% sequential decline). The prior quarter benefited from a larger incentive fee waiver ($2.8M vs $0.9M this quarter), which contributed to the quarter-to-quarter comparison.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
NAV Growth
Net asset value increased to $110.4M ($7.95/share) from $107.5M ($7.74/share) quarter-over-quarter, a nearly 3% increase driven by realized and unrealized gains (including CoreWeave).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated guidance to protect and grow NAV, generate sustainable net investment income (NII) and allocate capital with discipline, while shifting mix more toward private credit (a $30M deployment in Q2 across 14 investments, including ~$12M in 3 private-credit deals) and keeping opportunistic share repurchases and liability reductions active; key metrics cited included NAV up nearly 3% QoQ to $110.4M ($7.95/share) from $107.5M ($7.74), Q2 NII of $4.5M ($0.32/share) (pre-incentive-fee NII +66% to $4.5M from $2.7M), cumulative waived incentive fees of ~$3.7M ($0.26/share) including ~$0.9M ($0.06/share) in Q2, CoreWeave distributions of $2.6M in the quarter (cumulative ~$9.5M vs $6M cost), CLOs representing ~16% of portfolio fair value (exposure to 300+ senior secured loans), less than 1% non‑accruals, cash of ~$6M plus $39M revolver availability, total debt $166.4M with asset coverage improving to 166.4% (debt/equity 1.51x from 1.62x), no debt maturities until 2029 after extending the revolver and retiring GECCO, a $0.25/share quarterly distribution declared (payable Sept. 30, record Sept. 15), and roughly $9.5M remaining under a $10M repurchase authorization (after repurchasing ~1% of shares at an average 37% discount to June 30 NAV).Great Elm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | -15.13M | 44.48M | 23.39M | 41.95M | -101.62M | 15.62M |
| Gross Profit | -28.33M | 34.00M | 10.00M | 31.83M | -14.76M | 16.03M |
| EBITDA | -33.35M | -10.03M | 5.05M | 25.33M | -15.58M | -10.28M |
| Net Income | -38.30M | -31.79M | 3.55M | 25.33M | -15.58M | -10.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 279.98M | 340.77M | 342.03M | 246.82M | 310.11M | 426.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.67M | 1.83M | 8.45M | 953.00K | 587.00K | 9.13M |
| Total Debt | 161.85M | 189.32M | 189.69M | 140.21M | 153.15M | 142.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 169.56M | 227.83M | 205.91M | 148.09M | 225.30M | 351.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 110.42M | 112.95M | 136.11M | 98.74M | 84.81M | 74.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 53.88M | -2.81M | -82.67M | 15.39M | -41.76M | -58.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 53.88M | -2.81M | -82.67M | 15.39M | -41.76M | -58.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -67.75M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.77M | -36.47M | -56.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -29.29M | 4.65M | 81.72M | -25.32M | 33.20M | 14.45M |
Great Elm Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
5.94
Price Trends
5.37
Negative
5.31
Negative
5.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
26.68
Positive
3.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GECC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.01, above the 50-day MA of 5.37, and above the 200-day MA of 5.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.68 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GECC.
Great Elm Capital Risk Analysis
Great Elm Capital disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Elm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Great Elm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $170.95M | 10.14 | 6.83% | 13.13% | -0.46% | 416.27% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $52.65M | -2.38 | -18.44% | 17.30% | -43.53% | -316.63% | |
54 Neutral | $65.98M | -1.48 | -32.53% | 24.63% | -11.06% | -288.02% | |
49 Neutral | $140.02M | -2.91 | -25.97% | 32.31% | ― | -1756.77% |
* Financial Sector Average
GECC
Great Elm Capital
4.75
-1.78
-27.28%
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
1.30
-0.14
-9.47%
WHF
WhiteHorse
7.96
1.68
26.77%
OFS
OFS Capital
3.93
-2.03
-34.08%
NXDT
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
4.89
1.77
56.93%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.