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Global Business Travel Group
(NYSE:GBTG)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(5.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is primarily driven by improving—but not yet fully stabilized—financial performance (profitability recovery tempered by margin compression, weak cash conversion, and meaningful leverage). Technicals are constructive but overbought, while valuation is a headwind due to the high P/E and lack of dividend support. Corporate events provide incremental support given shareholder approval of the take-private transaction, partially offset by litigation-related risk.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and recovery
Rapid multi-year revenue expansion, combined with consistently strong gross margins, indicates broadening business activity and a scalable service model. The return to profitability in 2025 and TTM strengthens the company’s ability to reinvest and support operating resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin and operating leverage compression
Profitability has recovered, but declining net and operating margins show that additional revenue is not translating into earnings at the prior rate. Sustained cost pressure or weaker operating leverage could limit profit compounding and reduce the benefit of the company’s otherwise strong top-line growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and recovery
Rapid multi-year revenue expansion, combined with consistently strong gross margins, indicates broadening business activity and a scalable service model. The return to profitability in 2025 and TTM strengthens the company’s ability to reinvest and support operating resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)59.3
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth30.16%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees27,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryTravel Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding522,373,400
10 Day Avg. Volume2,304,475
30 Day Avg. Volume1,667,315
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.21
Price to Book (P/B)2.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio38.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.33B
Global Business Travel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG) operates a sophisticated business-to-business (B2B) travel platform. This advanced digital ecosystem provides a full spectrum of tech-driven services for business travelers, corporate clients, travel conte...
How the Company Makes Money
GBTG primarily makes money by managing corporate travel programs and facilitating travel bookings on behalf of its clients, earning revenue through a mix of transaction-based and program-based fees and supplier-derived economics. Key revenue strea...
Global Business Travel Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive and constructive outlook: the company reported strong full-year and Q4 growth (material revenue, TTV, and adjusted EBITDA increases), outlined clear AI-driven productivity and margin expansion opportunities, and provided explicit guidance and pro forma uplift from CWT synergies. Near-term challenges include integration-related margin dilution and one-time cash costs, seasonality changes, and geopolitical uncertainty (notably the Middle East), but management presented concrete synergy targets, demonstrated balance sheet strength, and doubled buyback authorization, supporting confidence in execution.Positive Updates
Full-Year Financial Strength
Total transaction value (TTV) grew 17% in 2025; revenue grew 12% year-over-year; adjusted gross profit margin was 60% for the full year; adjusted EBITDA grew 11%; free cash flow of $104 million for the year; customer retention rate of 96% and excluding CWT new wins accelerated to $3.3 billion.
Negative Updates
CWT Integration Margin Drag and Near-Term Noise
Consolidation of CWT into results caused a year‑over‑year reduction in reported margins (reported adjusted EBITDA margin modestly down), and the combined business exhibits different seasonality; pre-synergy CWT operations run at lower margins (temporary margin impact until synergies realized).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Financial Strength
Total transaction value (TTV) grew 17% in 2025; revenue grew 12% year-over-year; adjusted gross profit margin was 60% for the full year; adjusted EBITDA grew 11%; free cash flow of $104 million for the year; customer retention rate of 96% and excluding CWT new wins accelerated to $3.3 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance for revenue of $3.235–$3.295 billion (up 19–21% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $615–$645 million (up 16–21% YoY), or pro forma $715–$745 million including the full $155 million of CWT synergies; free cash flow is expected to be $125–$155 million (or $235–$265 million excluding cash restructuring/CWT integration impacts), with ~40% FCF conversion at the midpoint; they expect $55 million of in‑year CWT synergies in 2026 ( $45 million already actioned) toward a $155 million total, project adjusted gross profit margin to expand 150–200 bps per year to the high‑60s by 2030, maintain net leverage at 1.9x (target range 1.5x–2.5x) after CWT, plan CapEx of ~4% of revenue, doubled buyback authorization to $600 million ( $103 million returned to date), and outlined seasonality of ~51% of revenue and ~53% of adjusted EBITDA in H1 ( ~25% of revenue and ~24% of adjusted EBITDA in Q1) with Q1 FCF largely breakeven and acceleration in Q2; guidance excludes any prolonged Middle East impact (the region ≈5% of revenue).Global Business Travel Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.18B | 2.72B | 2.42B | 2.29B | 1.85B | 763.00M |
| Gross Profit | 1.86B | 1.63B | 1.46B | 1.33B | 1.02B | 286.00M |
| EBITDA | 354.00M | 434.00M | 222.00M | 190.00M | -7.00M | -446.00M |
| Net Income | 88.00M | 109.00M | -138.00M | -63.00M | -25.00M | 0.00 |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.08B | 4.92B | 3.62B | 3.75B | 4.18B | 4.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 518.00M | 434.00M | 536.00M | 476.00M | 303.00M | 516.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.60B | 1.51B | 1.46B | 1.43B | 1.30B | 1.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.39B | 3.25B | 2.57B | 2.54B | 2.81B | 2.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.64B | 1.61B | 1.05B | 1.21B | 152.00M | 1.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 102.00M | 104.00M | 165.00M | 49.00M | -488.00M | -556.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 250.00M | 233.00M | 272.00M | 162.00M | -394.00M | -512.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -242.00M | -206.00M | -102.00M | -119.00M | -95.00M | -27.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -60.00M | -128.00M | -85.00M | 120.00M | 292.00M | 478.00M |
Global Business Travel Group Technical Analysis
Positive
9.47
Price Trends
9.43
Positive
8.96
Positive
7.78
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
60.86
Neutral
64.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBTG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.46, above the 50-day MA of 9.43, and above the 200-day MA of 7.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBTG.
Global Business Travel Group Risk Analysis
Global Business Travel Group disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Business Travel Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Global Business Travel Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $3.32B | 18.43 | 19.50% | ― | 15.57% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.20B | -2.09 | -40.51% | ― | 2.66% | -808.37% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $2.23B | 422.22 | 1.41% | ― | 10.83% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $4.95B | 59.25 | 5.51% | ― | 30.16% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $3.20B | -7.40 | -7.08% | ― | 34.93% | 74.60% | |
56 Neutral | $2.02B | -13.31 | -105.68% | ― | 9.48% | 26.94% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GBTG
Global Business Travel Group
9.48
1.37
16.89%
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10.42
-5.76
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3.90
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12.92
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ASAN
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8.79
-5.12
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FRSH
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12.10
-1.18
-8.89%
Global Business Travel Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Shareholders Approve Merger, Global Business Travel Sold
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Global Business Travel Group, Inc. held a virtual special meeting of stockholders at which approximately 94.95% of eligible Class A common shares were represented, establishing a quorum for key merger-related votes. The high par...
Legal ProceedingsM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Global Business Travel Issues Supplemental Disclosures Amid Lawsuits
Negative
Jul 24, 2026
On May 2, 2026, Global Business Travel Group agreed to be acquired by Long Lake Management Holdings via a merger under which it would become a wholly owned subsidiary, with shareholders set to vote on the deal at a virtual special meeting on Augus...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Global Business Travel Group Highlights Growth Amid Pending Buyout
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. reported that it is set to be acquired by Long Lake Management under a previously announced merger agreement signed on May 2, 2026, with Gaia Purchaser, Inc. and Gaia Merger Sub, Inc. acting as the acquisition ve...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.