First Solar (FSLR) AI Stock Analysis

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First Solar

(NASDAQ:FSLR)

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Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:$217.00▲(7.89% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/30/26

Overall score is supported primarily by strong financial fundamentals (high profitability and an exceptionally low-leverage balance sheet) and a constructive earnings narrative around backlog, U.S. manufacturing, and capital return (buyback). Offsetting factors are weak technical trend signals and near-term fundamental uncertainty highlighted by reduced 2026 guidance and weaker recent cash-flow conversion.

Positive Factors

Contracted BacklogThe 44 GW contracted backlog provides substantial multi-year revenue visibility and supports capacity planning through 2030. Its scale reduces reliance on immediate spot-market demand, while scheduled deliveries can underpin manufacturing utilization and cash generation over the next several years.

Negative Factors

Lower Revenue and GuidanceThe sales decline and reduced full-year outlook indicate that near-term operating momentum has weakened despite strong margins. Lower shipment volumes can reduce factory utilization and delay the conversion of backlog into revenue, making earnings progression less predictable over the next several quarters.

First Solar Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by Segment (Discontinued)Breaks down income across different business areas, revealing which segments drive growth and where strategic focus may be needed.

Chart Insights

Modules have become the clear revenue engine as ‘Other’ has dwindled to immaterial levels, with a pronounced seasonality and accelerating year‑end conversion of backlog; management’s commentary confirms this shift—strong U.S. utilization, a large backlog and the CURE ramp support further module revenue growth. That concentration increases sensitivity to tariffs, SE Asia underutilization and India low‑ASP mix, so near‑term cadence and margin volatility will hinge on trade policy outcomes and execution of U.S. capacity and new technology rollouts.

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The Fly

First Solar (FSLR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $21.04B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 2.42M
Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.3
Beta (1Y): 1.05
Revenue Growth: -0.72%
EPS Growth: 32.62%
Country: US
Employees: 7,900
Sector: Technology
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Solar

First Solar Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Solar, Inc. is a global provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy solutions, operating in numerous international markets including the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, and Australia. The company's primary activity involves the engi...

How the Company Makes Money

First Solar primarily makes money by selling thin-film solar PV modules to customers building or operating solar power plants (most commonly utility-scale projects). Revenue is recognized largely from contracts for the supply of modules, where pricin...

First Solar Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:13.71%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was generally positive, supported by strong third-quarter profitability, a 44-gigawatt contracted backlog, higher gross margins, U.S. manufacturing expansion, CuRe and perovskite technology progress, and a new $500 million share repurchase authorization. However, the company also reported a 23% year-over-year sales decline, lowered 2026 volume, revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, moderated bookings, significant customer and policy uncertainty, and unresolved decisions regarding Malaysia and litigation. The positive operating results and strategic positioning outweighed the stated challenges.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Profitability

First Solar generated approximately $1.2 billion in third-quarter net sales, expanded gross margin to approximately 58%, and delivered adjusted EBITDA of $744 million. Adjusted EBITDA was near the upper end of the previously communicated Q3 preview range, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 60%.

Negative Updates

Year-Over-Year Net Sales Decline

Third-quarter net sales of approximately $1.2 billion decreased approximately 23% year-over-year, primarily due to lower module volumes sold to third parties compared with the prior-year period.

Company Guidance

Guidance calls for the first Series 7 CuRe conversion in India to begin in the first quarter of 2027, with India's finished goods production in 2027 expected to range from 2.2 gigawatts to 2.6 gigawatts; South Carolina's second finishing phase is expected to reach commercial launch in mid-2027, with the 2 phases expected to result in 2027 South Carolina production of 2.2 to 2.5 gigawatts; the Ohio perovskite pilot line remains on track to reach operational readiness in the first half of 2027; Malaysia is expected to operate at full or near full capacity of 1.8 gigawatt annually or shut down, with a decision expected in the first half of 2027; full year 2026 guidance reflects a lower range of India domestic, international Series 6 and U.S. finishing volumes sold, with an associated reduction in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, including a reduction of approximately 0.7 gigawatts in the India domestic volume sold forecast, while the forecast range for fully domestic products sold remains unchanged; full year perovskite-related spend, originally forecasted approximately $100 million, is now expected to total approximately $120 million; total 2026 operating expense guidance and Net cash guidance remain unchanged; and the company has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $500 million.

First Solar Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength is clear with materially improved profitability and very high TTM margins, and the balance sheet is exceptionally conservative with minimal leverage and solid ROE. The main offset is cash-flow volatility: TTM free cash flow compressed sharply and cash conversion is weak versus net income, adding near-term quality risk despite strong reported earnings.

Income Statement

86Very Positive

Balance Sheet

94Very Positive

Cash Flow

58Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.01B	5.22B	4.21B	3.32B	2.62B	2.92B
Gross Profit	2.47B	2.12B	1.86B	1.30B	69.86M	729.95M
EBITDA	2.54B	2.15B	1.87B	1.21B	290.55M	845.17M
Net Income	1.86B	1.53B	1.29B	830.78M	-44.17M	468.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.02B	13.32B	12.12B	10.37B	8.25B	7.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.62B	2.86B	1.79B	2.10B	2.58B	1.83B
Total Debt	324.97M	498.57M	718.80M	624.39M	234.13M	398.59M
Total Liabilities	3.14B	3.78B	4.15B	3.68B	2.42B	1.45B
Stockholders Equity	10.88B	9.54B	7.98B	6.69B	5.84B	5.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	232.79M	1.19B	-308.08M	-784.51M	-30.24M	-302.73M
Operating Cash Flow	839.18M	2.06B	1.22B	602.26M	873.37M	237.56M
Investing Cash Flow	-615.30M	-765.17M	-1.56B	-472.79M	-1.19B	-99.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-637.65M	-119.23M	24.85M	336.85M	309.39M	40.55M

First Solar Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price201.14

Price Trends

50DMA186.99Positive

100DMA206.04Negative

200DMA214.65Negative

Market Momentum

MACD2.04Negative

RSI67.41Neutral

STOCH63.39Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FSLR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 201.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 179.60, above the 50-day MA of 186.99, and below the 200-day MA of 214.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FSLR.

First Solar Risk Analysis

First Solar disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Solar reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

First Solar Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

FSLR against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FSLR	72Outperform	$20.91B	11.30	18.33%	―	-0.72%	32.62%
Sector *	61Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SHLS	60Neutral	$1.54B	39.68	6.16%	―	49.21%	13.12%
ARRY	59Neutral	$820.86M	-4.61	-70.85%	―	-15.87%	-87.66%
SEDG	43Neutral	$1.85B	-6.88	-54.65%	―	26.11%	60.72%
JKS	40Underperform	$535.26M	-0.32	-18.67%	27.02%	-15.19%	15.25%
CSIQ	34Underperform	$731.93M	-3.75	-6.62%	―	-15.70%	-2559.44%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FSLR and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
FSLR	First Solar	201.14	-71.50	-26.23%
CSIQ	Canadian Solar	11.12	-21.28	-65.68%
JKS	Jinkosolar	10.97	-16.43	-59.96%
SEDG	SolarEdge Technologies Inc.	27.51	-17.87	-39.38%
ARRY	Array Technologies Inc	5.86	-3.31	-36.15%
SHLS	Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.	10.08	0.69	7.35%

First Solar Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures

First Solar Posts Strong Q3 Results, Launches Buyback Plan

Positive

Oct 29, 2026

On October 29, 2026, First Solar reported third-quarter 2026 net sales of $1.23 billion, down 23% year-on-year, as lower third-party module volumes weighed on revenue, while net income rose to $571 million, or $5.30 per diluted share, and adjusted EB...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026

First Solar AI Stock Analysis