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Dow Inc
(NYSE:DOW)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(9.42% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
Overall score reflects improving cash flow and a positive, execution-focused earnings update (self-help, debt reduction, and supportive Q4 outlook), offset by weak current profitability (TTM net loss and low margins) and higher leverage for a cyclical chemicals business. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages, while valuation is helped by the high dividend but clouded by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Structural cost improvement
Completed cost savings and ongoing transformation benefits can support margins beyond a single reporting period. The company is also targeting $700 million of 2026 growth and productivity improvements, indicating a durable internal efficiency program rather than reliance only on market pricing.
Negative Factors
Weak profitability
Dow remains loss-making on a trailing basis, and depressed gross and EBITDA margins show that the recovery has not yet restored prior earnings quality. Continued weak profitability limits internally funded investment and leaves results highly dependent on pricing, utilization, and cost improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Structural cost improvement
Completed cost savings and ongoing transformation benefits can support margins beyond a single reporting period. The company is also targeting $700 million of 2026 growth and productivity improvements, indicating a durable internal efficiency program rather than reliance only on market pricing.
Read all positive factors
Dow Inc Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Shows how much revenue each business segment contributes, highlighting which areas are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyDow Inc (DOW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.56B
Dividend Yield4.29%
Average Volume (3M)8.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth4.16%
EPS Growth20.86%
CountryUS
Employees34,600
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.26
Shares Outstanding722,340,700
10 Day Avg. Volume7,811,842
30 Day Avg. Volume8,731,402
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio-11.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.52
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$34.38Price Target Upside14.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.98B
Dow Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dow Inc. is a global leader in materials science, delivering diverse solutions for key industries such as packaging, infrastructure development, mobility, and consumer products. The company's reach extends across numerous regions, including the Un...
How the Company Makes Money
Dow primarily makes money by manufacturing chemical and polymer products and selling them to industrial customers under supply contracts and spot transactions. Revenue is generated from the sale of (1) plastics and polymer materials used in packag...
Dow Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Dow reported strong third-quarter sales and EBITDA growth, substantial segment-level earnings improvement, strong free cash flow, working-capital release, debt reduction, and meaningful progress on self-help and transformation initiatives. Management also provided a roughly flat sequential fourth-quarter outlook with potential upside from polyethylene pricing. These positives were tempered by volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, European energy and logistics challenges, construction-related demand weakness, industry overcapacity, and operational constraints in the Middle East.Positive Updates
Third-Quarter Sales and EBITDA Growth
Net sales increased 13% year over year, with growth in every operating segment. Operating EBITDA was more than $1.5 billion, as pricing actions and self-help measures more than offset higher raw material and logistics costs and drove year-over-year growth.
Negative Updates
Dynamic and Volatile Market Environment
Management described geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions as volatile, with mixed demand signals and considerable uncertainty, including uncertainty related to the situation in the Middle East.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Third-Quarter Sales and EBITDA Growth
Net sales increased 13% year over year, with growth in every operating segment. Operating EBITDA was more than $1.5 billion, as pricing actions and self-help measures more than offset higher raw material and logistics costs and drove year-over-year growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the fourth quarter, Dow expects EBITDA of approximately $1.5 billion, with global polyethylene integrated margins improving by approximately 2 cents per pound compared to the third quarter, more than $100 million of lower sequential turnaround spending, and approximately $100 million of sequential uplift from self help actions, supporting a roughly flat sequential outlook; the typical seasonal slowdown in building and construction activity is expected to reduce earnings in the period for the 2 other segments. The guide contemplates ethane in the mid to high 20s per gallon range, while achieving the 7 cents per pound in October and the 5 cents in November could provide an upside to the fourth quarter guide, potentially in the range of $200 million, depending on feedstock costs. Dow expects approximately $700 million in growth and productivity improvements this year, approximately $1.3 billion in net benefits this year and $1.3 billion in 2027, including $1.2 billion of incremental to outperform uplift in 2027 and about another $100 million of incremental gains from asset actions, with cash conversion expected to be in the range of anywhere from, let's say, 70% to 80% next year.Dow Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 42.61B | 39.97B | 42.96B | 44.62B | 56.90B | 54.97B |
| Gross Profit | 4.73B | 2.40B | 4.46B | 4.97B | 7.86B | 10.39B |
| EBITDA | 3.51B | 1.19B | 5.25B | 4.00B | 9.50B | 11.68B |
| Net Income | -809.00M | -2.62B | 1.12B | 589.00M | 4.58B | 6.31B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 60.95B | 58.54B | 57.31B | 57.97B | 60.60B | 62.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.14B | 3.82B | 2.57B | 2.99B | 3.89B | 2.99B |
| Total Debt | 18.91B | 19.60B | 17.64B | 16.45B | 16.71B | 16.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.32B | 41.02B | 39.46B | 38.86B | 39.36B | 44.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 16.15B | 16.01B | 17.36B | 18.61B | 20.72B | 18.16B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.00B | -1.45B | -151.00M | 2.72B | 5.42B | 5.51B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.33B | 1.03B | 2.91B | 5.20B | 7.47B | 7.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.42B | 817.00M | -2.37B | -2.93B | -2.97B | -2.91B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 903.00M | -435.00M | -1.17B | -3.12B | -3.36B | -6.07B |
Dow Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
30.16
Price Trends
29.58
Positive
29.90
Positive
31.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.65
Negative
73.59
Negative
93.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DOW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.05, above the 50-day MA of 29.58, and below the 200-day MA of 31.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.59 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DOW.
Dow Inc Risk Analysis
Dow Inc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dow Inc reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Dow Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $11.57B | 15.97 | 7.73% | 8.55% | 17.90% | 95.98% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | $23.56B | -25.88 | -4.50% | 4.29% | 4.16% | 20.86% | |
57 Neutral | $18.44B | 296.85 | 0.34% | 1.76% | -34.44% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $5.24B | -4.47 | -28.81% | 0.25% | -2.28% | 27.94% | |
49 Neutral | $1.54B | -8.85 | -6.28% | 3.98% | 0.65% | 45.36% | |
42 Neutral | $666.73M | -0.60 | 46.16% | 18.42% | -1.40% | 2.39% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
DOW
Dow Inc
32.61
8.09
33.00%
CE
Celanese
47.71
3.98
9.09%
BAK
Braskem SA
1.70
-1.02
-37.50%
HUN
Huntsman
8.80
-0.21
-2.36%
SSL
Sasol
18.03
11.62
181.28%
DD
DuPont de Nemours
136.55
36.21
36.08%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.