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California Water Service (CWT) AI Stock Analysis

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CWT

California Water Service

(NYSE:CWT)

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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:$51.00â–²(5.15% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/30/26

The score is driven primarily by stable utility profitability and a constructive earnings-call outlook on rate base growth, rate actions, and funding visibility. Offsetting these positives are uneven free cash flow history and capital-intensity-related cash flow volatility, with technicals and valuation both reading as neutral-to-slightly-supportive rather than strongly bullish.

Positive Factors
Regulated profitabilityCWT's regulated utility model supports resilient profitability, with strong EBITDA and a healthy net margin despite modest top-line growth. This earnings base provides recurring capacity to maintain infrastructure, fund operations, and support shareholder distributions over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Capital-intensive cash flowCWT's infrastructure program consumes substantial cash, and the history of negative annual free cash flow shows that accounting profitability does not consistently convert into internally available funds. Continued investment may require external financing and can constrain financial flexibility.

California Water Service (CWT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%CWT+6.10%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$3.00B
Dividend Yield
2.69%
Average Volume (3M)
456.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
21.6
Beta (1Y)
-0.09
Revenue Growth
7.28%
EPS Growth
-2.00%
Country
US
Employees
1,336
Sector
Utilities
Sector Strength
66
Industry
Regulated Water

California Water Service Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

California Water Service Group (CWT), through its various subsidiaries, operates as a water utility, delivering essential water services and related offerings across several states, including California, Washington, New Mexico, Hawaii, and Texas. The...

How the Company Makes Money

CWT makes money primarily through regulated utility revenues earned by providing water service to customers within its state-approved service territories. The company’s main revenue stream is customer water service charges (monthly service fees and v...

California Water Service Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:2.86%|Next Earnings Date:Mar 02, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive, with year-to-date revenue and earnings growth, record infrastructure investment, strong financing access, regulatory approvals, acquisition progress, dividend growth, and stable authorized returns. The company also reported operational challenges from lower customer usage, higher wholesale water, fuel and material costs, increased taxes and integration expenses, and potential permitting or weather-related capital timing issues. Management nevertheless expressed confidence in the 2026 plan, the California step increase, acquisition closing, and funding outlook.

Positive Updates

Third-Quarter Revenue and Earnings Growth
Third-quarter net income was $65.4 million, or $1.05 per diluted share, compared with $61.2 million, or $1.03 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Revenue increased $21 million, or 6.7%, to $332.2 million, driven primarily by $22.1 million from rate changes and new customers and $3.9 million from changes in the Drought Response Memorandum Account.

Negative Updates

Lower Customer Usage Reduced Revenue
Third-quarter revenue included a $4.4 million reduction related to lower customer water usage. Lower customer usage also partially offset wholesale water costs during the quarter.

Company Guidance

Management said it anticipates filing around November 15th for the estimated $49 million step increase available for 2027 rates and anticipates closing the Nexus Water Group Oregon and Nevada acquisitions before the end of the year, with total integration costs between $7 million and $9 million; it projects compounded annual rate base growth of nearly 12%, reaching approximately $3.5 billion by the end of 2028 assuming planned capital investments are completed on schedule, plans for 10%-11% capital growth year over year, and expects to accelerate as much CapEx as possible in the fourth quarter; the indicated 2026 dividend is $1.34 a share, an increase of 8.1% over 2025, with a dividend growth floor of 7% and a 50%-60% payout ratio, while financing is expected to support ongoing initiatives into the first half of 2027, maybe into the first three quarters of 2027.

California Water Service Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid regulated-utility profitability (TTM net margin ~12.8%, EBITDA margin ~35.7%) and a workable but debt-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~0.87). The main constraint is cash flow quality: free cash flow has been negative in most recent annual periods and only turned positive in TTM, indicating ongoing capital intensity and volatility.

Income Statement

73Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

54Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08B1.00B1.04B794.63M846.43M790.91M
Gross Profit697.47M643.46M989.12M363.38M530.35M483.77M
EBITDA383.58M360.17M424.26M217.54M263.34M259.87M
Net Income137.39M128.21M190.81M51.91M96.01M101.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.07B5.67B5.18B4.70B3.95B3.62B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments45.12M51.82M50.12M84.97M85.03M78.38M
Total Debt1.65B1.62B1.40B1.25B1.14B1.10B
Total Liabilities4.17B3.98B3.54B3.27B2.62B2.45B
Stockholders Equity1.90B1.69B1.64B1.43B1.32B1.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-266.92M-214.43M-179.93M-165.93M-83.98M-61.48M
Operating Cash Flow310.14M302.56M290.87M217.82M243.77M231.72M
Investing Cash Flow-578.78M-520.14M-474.87M-389.42M-335.52M-300.87M
Financing Cash Flow237.98M219.26M194.72M171.54M96.12M104.68M

California Water Service Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive
Last Price48.50

Price Trends

50DMA47.61Positive
100DMA48.27Positive
200DMA46.26Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.22Negative
RSI61.10Neutral
STOCH79.33Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CWT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.50 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.56, above the 50-day MA of 47.61, and above the 200-day MA of 46.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CWT.

California Water Service Risk Analysis

California Water Service disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. California Water Service reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Legal & Regulatory - Litigation, compliance, new legislation, and taxation risks

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk
1.There have been no material changes to the Company’s risk factors set forth in Part I, Item 1A of the 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K.Q2, 2026

California Water Service Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

CWT against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
ARTNAARTNA73Outperform$348.55M14.599.37%3.78%5.90%5.30%
Sector *66Neutral$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
CWTCWT65Neutral$3.05B21.587.64%2.69%7.28%-2.00%
MSEXMSEX62Neutral$1.09B20.3510.06%2.54%8.95%16.16%
AWRAWR60Neutral$3.42B23.5813.50%2.38%13.23%12.00%
HTOHTO60Neutral$2.89B22.805.65%2.91%4.22%-17.13%
YORWYORW54Neutral$512.66M19.629.38%2.89%9.43%16.86%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%20%40%CWTAWRARTNAMSEXHTOYORWDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
CWT and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
CWTCalifornia Water Service Group48.504.7910.96%
AWRAmerican States Water Company86.3216.4923.62%
ARTNAArtesian Resources Corporation33.562.708.76%
MSEXMiddlesex Water56.798.1816.82%
HTOH2o America59.7414.9933.51%
YORWThe York Water31.591.264.15%

California Water Service Corporate Events

Dividends

California Water Service Declares 327th Consecutive Dividend

Positive
Oct 28, 2026

On October 28, 2026, California Water Service Group’s board declared the company’s 327th consecutive quarterly dividend, underscoring its long history of uninterrupted shareholder payouts and financial stability. The dividend of $0.3350 p...

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

California Water Service announces new long-term debt financing

Positive
Oct 15, 2026

On October 14, 2026, California Water Service Group agreed to issue $75 million of 6.08% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2031 and $50 million of 6.41% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2036, while its subsidiary California Water Service Company arranged to issue...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2026