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Traeger
(NYSE:COOK)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$44.00
▼(-23.16% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/07/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, persistent net losses, and high leverage) and bearish technical momentum (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Strong recent free cash flow generation is the main offset, but valuation is not compelling on an earnings basis given the negative P/E and no indicated dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for operations, product investment, and debt obligations despite reported losses. The improvement in free cash flow is a meaningful financial cushion, although its historical volatility means durability still requires monitoring.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue
A contracting top line signals weaker demand or reduced sales momentum across Traeger’s business and limits operating leverage. Continued revenue pressure could make it harder to support brand investment, absorb fixed costs, and convert the installed base into sustained growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Strong operating and free cash flow provide internal funding for operations, product investment, and debt obligations despite reported losses. The improvement in free cash flow is a meaningful financial cushion, although its historical volatility means durability still requires monitoring.
Read all positive factors
Traeger (COOK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$131.07M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)60.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.96
Revenue Growth-16.30%
EPS Growth-210.55%
CountryUS
Employees433
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryFurnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-42.04
Shares Outstanding2,798,224
10 Day Avg. Volume48,781
30 Day Avg. Volume60,038
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.84
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio10.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.20
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-12.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$61.00Price Target Upside6.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.05
Revenue Forecast (FY)$446.43M
Traeger Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Traeger, Inc., and its associated entities, specializes in the development, manufacturing, distribution, and ongoing support of wood-fired pellet grills. These unique outdoor cooking appliances are sold across the United States through various cha...
How the Company Makes Money
Traeger makes money primarily by selling branded wood pellet grills and related products through a mix of retail and direct channels. The company’s key revenue streams include: (1) Grills: Revenue from sales of Traeger wood pellet grills (the main...
Traeger Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong brand engagement, promising early product launch momentum (Westwood and Irontop), meaningful cost and inventory reductions from Project Gravity and improved cash generation supported by an IEEPA tariff refund that allowed management to raise adjusted EBITDA and gross margin guidance. Offsetting these positives are material top-line declines (Q1 revenue down 34%, grills down 45%), pressure on adjusted EBITDA and underlying gross margin when excluding the tariff benefit, MEATER-related challenges, and ongoing tariff and macro uncertainties. Given the comparable weight of operational/financial improvements and significant revenue/margin headwinds, the overall tone is cautiously optimistic but pragmatic.Positive Updates
Strong Brand Engagement
Social engagement up over 30% year-over-year in Q1 with 65% of organic impressions coming from nonfollowers; brand ambassadors generated ~170 million impressions across more than 3,000 posts in the quarter and the ambassador program delivers over 1 billion impressions annually.
Negative Updates
Significant Revenue Decline
First quarter revenue declined 34% year-over-year to $94 million, reflecting difficult prior-year comparables, pull-forward ordering ahead of tariffs, deliberate channel optimization (exit of Costco roadshow and winding down DTC) and mix shifts to lower-priced grills.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Brand Engagement
Social engagement up over 30% year-over-year in Q1 with 65% of organic impressions coming from nonfollowers; brand ambassadors generated ~170 million impressions across more than 3,000 posts in the quarter and the ambassador program delivers over 1 billion impressions annually.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year revenue guidance of $465–$485 million, raised adjusted EBITDA to $57–$67 million and increased gross margin guidance to 39.5%–40.5%, while keeping free cash flow guidance > $30 million (the $15.6 million IEEPA receivable—$12.4 million booked in Q1—is not included until converted to cash, which management expects in ~60–90 days). They said Project Gravity is expected to deliver roughly $50 million of value capture in ’26 (about $30 million incremental this year) and a longer‑term run‑rate benefit of ~$64–$70 million, with guidance holding offsets for MEATER competitive pressure, rising transport/fuel costs (≈$1M impact) and tariff uncertainty. Key balance‑sheet/liquidity metrics cited: $34 million cash, $403 million total debt ($370 million net debt), $184 million total liquidity, undrawn $112.5 million revolver; Q1 produced $14.5 million free cash flow and $17 million adjusted EBITDA (including the $12.4 million IEEPA benefit).Traeger Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 484.98M | 559.52M | 604.07M | 605.88M | 655.90M | 785.54M |
| Gross Profit | 175.69M | 178.29M | 255.47M | 223.56M | 228.77M | 300.76M |
| EBITDA | -47.00M | -33.84M | 53.86M | 6.64M | -296.52M | -16.13M |
| Net Income | -112.65M | -115.18M | -34.01M | -84.40M | -382.14M | -91.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 654.74M | 675.98M | 830.68M | 860.76M | 946.72M | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 59.69M | 19.62M | 14.98M | 29.92M | 39.05M | 16.74M |
| Total Debt | 424.35M | 425.53M | 434.13M | 458.70M | 494.25M | 420.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 487.45M | 505.13M | 554.25M | 569.41M | 611.85M | 571.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | 167.29M | 170.85M | 276.43M | 291.35M | 334.87M | 606.02M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.10M | 13.08M | 11.44M | 43.64M | -13.81M | -51.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 68.07M | 20.52M | 23.89M | 64.04M | 5.09M | -28.43M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.79M | -7.33M | -12.33M | -17.38M | -18.90M | -79.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.89M | -8.54M | -26.50M | -68.30M | 48.63M | 113.51M |
Traeger Technical Analysis
Negative
57.26
Price Trends
50.50
Negative
58.93
Negative
50.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.63
Positive
44.82
Neutral
25.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COOK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 57.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.29, above the 50-day MA of 50.50, and above the 200-day MA of 50.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COOK.
Traeger Risk Analysis
Traeger disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Traeger reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Traeger Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $446.15M | 7.79 | 30.70% | 1.48% | -3.33% | 80.91% | |
68 Neutral | $515.43M | 13.03 | 8.40% | 23.52% | -5.72% | -22.50% | |
62 Neutral | $193.57M | 5.79 | 15.86% | 2.02% | -1.48% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $191.41M | 28.37 | 4.12% | 3.62% | 1.40% | -11.99% | |
49 Neutral | $131.07M | -1.11 | -64.46% | ― | -16.30% | -210.55% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
COOK
Traeger
46.84
-3.66
-7.25%
BSET
Bassett Furniture
22.13
7.71
53.48%
ETD
Ethan Allen
20.45
-2.00
-8.91%
LCUT
Lifetime Brands
8.42
4.81
132.92%
HBB
Hamilton Beach Brands Holding Company
33.19
18.98
133.50%
Traeger Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Traeger Appoints David Jolley to Board and Committees
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
On September 28, 2026, Traeger’s board of directors appointed David R. Jolley as a Class III director, with his term running until the 2027 annual meeting of stockholders. Jolley’s appointment became effective October 1, 2026, marking ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.