Chord Energy (CHRD) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Fourth quarter volume guidance is “well above both our August expectations and consensus estimates,” with oil production guidance raised from “159 thousand” to “163 thousand”; the capital program is now “1.46 billion” or “that $1.4 billion level,” including an additional $20 million of investment in midstream projects, increased operated and nonoperated activity, and “a couple more TILs on the year.” The company expects to hold the “new, call it, 163 thousand flat going forward,” with Q1 expected to dip and production starting to climb in the second and third quarter; it has turned in line 47 total 4-mile wells, drilling costs on 4-mile wells are down about 9% since the beginning of the first quarter, frac efficiency is up over 20% year-to-date, and the company is “fracking over 1 mile a day on average at this current time.” Incremental annual marketing savings are expected at $35 million to $55 million, bringing total annual savings to approximately $85 million, while shareholder returns are back to “75%-plus of return going back to shareholders”; chemical treatments are expected to be selected for the full year 2027 program by early next year, and non-op production is approximately “10% to 15%” of total production.