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AxoGen
(NASDAQ:AXGN)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▼(-20.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/02/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong growth, high gross margins, and a much stronger balance sheet with low leverage) plus constructive business momentum from raised guidance and continued cash generation. Offsetting these positives are weak technical conditions (below key moving averages with bearish momentum) and limited valuation support due to ongoing GAAP losses and no dividend, with near-term margin pressure and integration/financing risk from the BioCircuit deal also weighing on the outlook.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
A raised growth outlook supported by strong quarterly execution indicates continued demand for AxoGen’s nerve-repair portfolio. Expanding surgeon activity, active accounts, and breast-market adoption can strengthen scale and support durable revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent GAAP Losses
Ongoing operating and net losses show that AxoGen’s strong revenue and gross-margin profile has not yet translated into sustainable GAAP profitability. If losses persist, they may constrain internally funded investment, pressure equity value, and make execution increasingly dependent on future growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
A raised growth outlook supported by strong quarterly execution indicates continued demand for AxoGen’s nerve-repair portfolio. Expanding surgeon activity, active accounts, and breast-market adoption can strengthen scale and support durable revenue growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
AxoGen (AXGN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.34B
Dividend Yield22.22%
Average Volume (3M)1.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth23.57%
EPS Growth-543.50%
CountryUS
Employees622
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.67
Shares Outstanding58,671,513
10 Day Avg. Volume1,110,569
30 Day Avg. Volume1,150,936
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.01
Price to Book (P/B)11.70
Price to Sales (P/S)6.69
P/FCF Ratio-513.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.89Price Target Upside4.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)$279.56M
AxoGen Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AxoGen, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, specializes in creating and distributing medical devices for the surgical repair of injured or severed peripheral nerves. Their comprehensive product portfolio offers several innovative solutions. The Ava...
How the Company Makes Money
AxoGen primarily makes money by selling peripheral nerve repair products to hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and other healthcare providers for use in surgical procedures. Revenue is generated from product sales across its portfolio, which i...
AxoGen Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operational and commercial momentum: robust revenue growth (Q2 +23.1%), a pronounced acceleration in the Breast market (YTD +47%) that materially expanded Avance volume and adoption, growing active surgeon and account metrics, cash balance strength and raised revenue guidance. Offsetting this optimism are near-term margin pressures driven by an accelerated shift in product mix toward longer, higher-cost Avance grafts, increased operating expenses tied to commercial investment, and pending payer decisions (notably Aetna) that could further accelerate adoption but remain unquantified. Management outlined actionable plans (pricing and production efficiency initiatives) but emphasized these will take time to influence 2026 results. Overall, positives (strong top-line, guidance raise, evidence progress, healthy cash position and commercial momentum) outweigh the manageable operational and margin challenges disclosed.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Q2 2026 revenue of $69.7M, up 23.1% year-over-year; full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to at least $279M, implying at least 24% growth for the year.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Pressure and Product-Mix Impact
Q2 gross margin 72.7%, down 150 basis points year-over-year (74.2% in Q2 2025) and below internal plan. Shortfall driven mainly by faster-than-expected growth in Breast and higher-demand long-length Avance grafts (higher production cost), which exceeded internal expectations by ~14% in the quarter and impacted gross margin by ~1% versus plan.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Q2 2026 revenue of $69.7M, up 23.1% year-over-year; full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to at least $279M, implying at least 24% growth for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Axogen raised full‑year 2026 guidance, now expecting revenue growth of at least 24% (at least $279 million) with full‑year gross margin of at least 73% and remaining free cash flow positive; the company entered Q3 with $113.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and investments, had Q2 revenue of $69.7 million (up 23.1% YoY), Q2 gross margin of 72.7%, adjusted net income of $7.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.4 million (12.1% of revenue), and generated $4.1 million of free cash flow through the first half — guidance reflects momentum including Avance representing 65% of Q2 revenue (63% YTD), Breast growth up 47% YTD with ~215 active Breast programs and ~560 active Breast surgeons, combined Extremities/OMF/Head & Neck growth of ~15% YTD, a 172‑person commercial organization (15 net additions YTD), ~690 active high‑potential accounts (60% of revenue, 51% of growth YTD), and current commercial payer coverage of ~86% of U.S. covered lives (rising toward ~95% if Aetna approves).AxoGen Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 251.17M | 225.21M | 187.34M | 159.01M | 138.58M | 127.36M |
| Gross Profit | 187.26M | 167.35M | 141.98M | 121.87M | 108.81M | 104.43M |
| EBITDA | -14.77M | 192.00K | 6.08M | -13.33M | -23.47M | -20.89M |
| Net Income | -33.55M | -15.70M | -9.96M | -21.72M | -28.95M | -26.98M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 304.86M | 221.69M | 203.73M | 196.83M | 195.39M | 208.02M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 94.57M | 35.55M | 33.48M | 31.02M | 48.79M | 84.09M |
| Total Debt | 20.07M | 67.63M | 68.69M | 69.29M | 67.43M | 67.45M |
| Total Liabilities | 48.61M | 92.84M | 99.82M | 101.16M | 94.39M | 95.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 256.26M | 128.85M | 103.91M | 95.67M | 101.00M | 112.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.53M | -2.93M | 11.00K | -20.63M | -37.32M | -41.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.32M | 812.00K | 4.54M | -5.72M | -16.07M | -13.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.17M | -5.32M | -10.30M | 19.25M | -3.20M | -23.65M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 67.23M | 10.50M | 2.29M | 1.95M | 1.79M | 20.45M |
AxoGen Technical Analysis
Negative
51.58
Price Trends
45.76
Negative
43.89
Negative
38.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.72
Positive
27.49
Positive
3.60
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.77, above the 50-day MA of 45.76, and above the 200-day MA of 38.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.49 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AXGN.
AxoGen Risk Analysis
AxoGen disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AxoGen reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AxoGen Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.13B | 16.34 | 28.39% | ― | 3.14% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $825.11M | -53.21 | -8.23% | ― | 15.30% | 40.66% | |
57 Neutral | $2.34B | -55.41 | -17.88% | 22.22% | 23.57% | -543.50% | |
55 Neutral | $375.15M | -5.92 | -14.05% | ― | 2.99% | 51.77% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $1.15B | -17.77 | -45.97% | ― | 3.92% | 70.03% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AXGN
AxoGen
37.39
19.51
109.12%
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9.09
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TNDM
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16.50
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12.17%
SIBN
SI-Bone
18.08
3.58
24.69%
BVS
Bioventus
13.13
6.11
87.04%
AxoGen Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsProduct-Related Announcements
AxoGen Acquires BioCircuit, Expands Peripheral Nerve Portfolio
Positive
Oct 1, 2026
On October 1, 2026, AxoGen completed its acquisition of privately held BioCircuit Technologies, adding NerveTape, the first FDA-cleared sutureless device for repairing transected peripheral nerves, to its product lineup. Management framed the tran...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
AxoGen to Acquire BioCircuit, Expanding Nerve Repair Portfolio
Positive
Sep 10, 2026
On September 9–10, 2026, Axogen agreed to acquire BioCircuit Technologies for $200 million in cash, with BioCircuit to become a wholly owned subsidiary after a spin‑out of its unrelated electronics business. The deal, expected to close...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AxoGen boosts outlook after strong second-quarter growth
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Axogen reported second-quarter 2026 results, with revenue rising 23.1% year on year to $69.7 million and gross margin easing to 72.7% amid a product mix shift driven by breast indication growth exceeding 50%. The quarter swung to...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.