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American States Water
(NYSE:AWR)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$91.00
â–²(25.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is driven by solid regulated profitability and a positive earnings update with supportive regulatory/rate-base momentum and improved operating cash flow. Offsetting these are weak and historically volatile free cash flow (heavy capex funding needs), only neutral technical momentum, and a valuation that is not especially cheap for the growth profile.
Positive Factors
Rate-base growth & regulatory approvals
Sustained regulatory approvals and a rising rate base (CAGR ~11.3% from 2021–2026) create structurally growing, largely recoverable revenue. Authorized returns (ROE ~10.06%, RORB ~7.93%) and advice‑letter additions translate capital spending into predictable allowed revenue over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Weak free cash flow
Thin TTM free cash flow (~$38M) and a history of negative FCF mean accounting earnings do not consistently convert to surplus cash after capex. This structural gap forces recurring external financing (debt or equity), increasing dilution or leverage risk and limiting balance‑sheet flexibility.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rate-base growth & regulatory approvals
Sustained regulatory approvals and a rising rate base (CAGR ~11.3% from 2021–2026) create structurally growing, largely recoverable revenue. Authorized returns (ROE ~10.06%, RORB ~7.93%) and advice‑letter additions translate capital spending into predictable allowed revenue over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
American States Water Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business units, indicating which segments drive growth and profitability, and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business units, indicating which segments drive growth and profitability, and where the company might face challenges or opportunities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican States Water (AWR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.32B
Dividend Yield2.64%
Average Volume (3M)317.42K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.7
Beta (1Y)-0.08
Revenue Growth11.68%
EPS Growth5.79%
CountryUS
Employees517
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Water
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.43
Shares Outstanding39,192,654
10 Day Avg. Volume380,838
30 Day Avg. Volume317,424
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.41
Price to Book (P/B)2.67
Price to Sales (P/S)4.25
P/FCF Ratio-393.98
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$77.00Price Target Upside6.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)3.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$700.45M
American States Water Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American States Water Company (AWR) is an enterprise that, through its various subsidiary entities, delivers fundamental water and electricity services to a broad spectrum of clients, encompassing residential, commercial, and industrial consumers ...
How the Company Makes Money
AWR primarily makes money through (1) regulated utility operations and (2) contracted utility services. (1) Regulated water, wastewater, and electric utilities: AWR’s utility subsidiaries earn revenue by charging customers for water, wastewater, a...
American States Water Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed primarily positive operational and financial momentum: consolidated EPS rose 8.6%, revenues grew by $21.2 million, operating cash flow improved materially (~58.8%), ASUS showed notable growth and provided full‑year guidance, and regulators approved rate increases and additions to rate base that support future revenue. Offsetting items include higher supply and operating costs (+$5.1M and +$10.2M), some interest expense headwinds, minor dilution from the ATM program, and ongoing regulatory mechanism changes (MRAM) that can increase future earnings volatility. On balance, the positive performance, cash generation, regulatory approvals that add recurring revenue, and dividend growth outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Consolidated EPS Growth
Reported consolidated earnings per share of $0.76 for Q1 2026 versus $0.70 in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.6%.
Negative Updates
Higher Supply Costs
Supply costs increased by $5.1 million year‑over‑year, driven by higher per‑unit purchased water costs and greater purchased water volumes; while much of the per‑unit cost was included in water rates (no net EPS impact for that portion), increased supply volumes negatively impacted earnings.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated EPS Growth
Reported consolidated earnings per share of $0.76 for Q1 2026 versus $0.70 in Q1 2025, an increase of 8.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided guidance and key metrics including projected 2026 company‑funded capital expenditures of $185 million to $225 million and ASUS contribution of $0.63–$0.67 per share for the year; Q1 results included consolidated EPS of $0.76 vs $0.70 (up 8.6%), revenue up $21.2 million (water +$11.1M, electric +$3.7M, ASUS +$6.4M), supply costs up $5.1M, consolidated operating expenses ex‑supply up $10.2M, net cash from operations $71.6M vs $45.1M, and $42.1M of company‑funded capex in Q1; financing activity included $6.2M raised under the ATM with $34.3M still available; regulatory metrics include Golden State Water’s adopted operating revenues less supply cost up ≈$32M in 2026 (≈$11M from advice‑letter projects), $80M of advice‑letter project costs added to 2026 rate base generating ≈$11M incremental revenue requirement, a rate‑base CAGR of 11.3% from 2021 (base $980.4M) to 2026, an authorized return on rate base of 7.93% (ROE 10.06%, capital structure 57% equity/43% debt) through 12/31/2027, CPUC deferral of the cost‑of‑capital filing to 05/01/2027 (effective 01/01/2028), and Bear Valley’s requested four‑year capital budget of ≈$133M plus ≈$17M (plus AFUDC) with a requested ROE of 11.3%, embedded debt 5.92%, capital structure 60/40, and requested return on rate base of 9.15%; the quarterly dividend has grown at a 5‑year CAGR of 8.5% (above the >7% policy target).American States Water Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 679.25M | 658.07M | 595.46M | 595.70M | 491.53M | 498.85M |
| Gross Profit | 390.72M | 334.09M | 452.02M | 449.55M | 368.23M | 377.82M |
| EBITDA | 257.83M | 265.45M | 244.05M | 252.54M | 170.78M | 187.58M |
| Net Income | 133.55M | 130.44M | 119.27M | 124.92M | 78.40M | 94.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.73B | 2.72B | 2.50B | 2.25B | 2.03B | 1.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.16M | 18.82M | 26.66M | 14.07M | 6.00M | 4.96M |
| Total Debt | 930.55M | 942.78M | 938.24M | 917.88M | 734.43M | 629.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.67B | 1.67B | 1.58B | 1.47B | 1.32B | 1.22B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.05B | 920.05M | 776.11M | 709.55M | 685.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 38.00M | -7.09M | -33.23M | -120.86M | -48.44M | -28.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 256.31M | 229.73M | 198.73M | 67.68M | 117.80M | 115.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -219.03M | -237.54M | -232.78M | -188.76M | -167.10M | -145.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.35M | -26.00K | 46.64M | 129.16M | 50.34M | -2.27M |
American States Water Technical Analysis
Positive
72.54
Price Trends
77.77
Positive
76.04
Positive
74.08
Positive
Market Momentum
1.74
Negative
74.36
Negative
88.76
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AWR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.37, below the 50-day MA of 77.77, and below the 200-day MA of 74.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.76 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AWR.
American States Water Risk Analysis
American States Water disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American States Water reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American States Water Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $354.28M | 15.15 | 9.36% | 3.87% | 5.06% | 8.72% | |
64 Neutral | $3.32B | 24.71 | 13.06% | 2.64% | 11.68% | 5.79% | |
63 Neutral | $1.07B | 23.78 | 9.07% | 2.67% | 1.76% | -0.20% | |
58 Neutral | $509.30M | 21.37 | 8.89% | 2.68% | 4.38% | 7.70% | |
55 Neutral | $3.01B | 25.15 | 6.96% | 2.88% | 4.20% | -12.47% | |
50 Neutral | $207.10M | 104.35 | 2.37% | 3.56% | 5.69% | -68.06% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AWR
American States Water
84.76
10.33
13.88%
ARTNA
Artesian Resources
34.39
2.16
6.70%
CWT
California Water Service
50.23
5.96
13.45%
MSEX
Middlesex Water Company
57.55
4.12
7.71%
YORW
The York Water Company
31.42
0.42
1.36%
GWRS
Global Water Resources
7.20
-2.64
-26.83%
American States Water Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
American States Water Shareholders Approve New 2026 Stock Plan
Positive
May 21, 2026
At the annual meeting held on May 19, 2026, American States Water Company shareholders approved a new 2026 Stock Incentive Plan, replacing the 2016 plan and allowing the board’s compensation committee to continue granting stock options, rest...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.