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Aspen Aerogels
(NYSE:ASPN)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(5.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/15/26
ASPN scores below-average primarily due to weak and volatile financial performance (TTM revenue decline and steep losses) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Improved cash generation and a still-manageable balance sheet provide some support, but negative earnings and no dividend limit valuation appeal.
Positive Factors
Aerogel IP and scalable manufacturing capacity
A long innovation history and deep intellectual property portfolio can support differentiation in demanding insulation applications. The stated capacity to exceed $600 million of annual revenue with modest incremental capital also creates operating leverage if customer volumes recover and expand.
Negative Factors
Severe losses and weak margin profile
The sharp swing from profitability to substantial TTM losses shows that earnings power remains unproven and highly sensitive to volume and operating conditions. Very low gross profitability limits the buffer available to absorb cost pressure, making durable margin recovery essential to financial stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aerogel IP and scalable manufacturing capacity
A long innovation history and deep intellectual property portfolio can support differentiation in demanding insulation applications. The stated capacity to exceed $600 million of annual revenue with modest incremental capital also creates operating leverage if customer volumes recover and expand.
Read all positive factors
Aspen Aerogels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue contributions from different business areas, providing insight into which segments drive growth and profitability, and how the company balances its portfolio.
Highlights revenue contributions from different business areas, providing insight into which segments drive growth and profitability, and how the company balances its portfolio.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAspen Aerogels (ASPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$472.21M
Dividend Yield6.79%
Average Volume (3M)856.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth-49.12%
EPS Growth59.96%
CountryUS
Employees854
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.53
Shares Outstanding82,988,785
10 Day Avg. Volume1,258,738
30 Day Avg. Volume856,179
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.86
P/FCF Ratio-51.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit91.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside38.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$218.19M
Aspen Aerogels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aspen Aerogels, Inc. is a company dedicated to the development, manufacturing, and sale of advanced aerogel insulation products. These specialized solutions primarily serve the energy infrastructure and building materials sectors across a wide geo...
How the Company Makes Money
Aspen Aerogels makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling aerogel-based insulation materials to customers, generating revenue from product shipments under commercial supply arrangements. Its key revenue streams include (1) Industrial insul...
Aspen Aerogels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced material near-term operational challenges (an April plant explosion, related elevated costs, supply-chain and regional disruptions, and negative adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2) with meaningful positives: a strong cash position bolstered by a $37.6M GM claim, improved quarter-over-quarter profitability metrics (GAAP loss and adjusted EBITDA), robust demand signals and multi-faceted growth drivers in Energy & Industrial (subsea, LNG, maintenance), significant momentum in European thermal barriers (>3x YoY), and explicit guidance for sequential revenue growth with targets (20% EI growth in 2026, Q2 revenue range $40M–$48M). Given the mix of short-term operational headwinds and credible near- to medium-term growth and liquidity strengths, the overall tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Q1 Revenue and Segment Mix
Total Q1 2026 revenue of $37.9M, comprised of $21.6M Energy & Industrial and $16.3M Thermal Barrier. Company reiterates expectation of sequential revenue growth each quarter through 2026.
Negative Updates
East Providence Plant Explosion and Operational Disruption
April 8 explosion in a high-temperature oven caused localized plant damage and temporary cessation of operations at East Providence. Staged restart expected to begin in May subject to safety and regulatory reviews; full capability restoration will take time.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q1 Revenue and Segment Mix
Total Q1 2026 revenue of $37.9M, comprised of $21.6M Energy & Industrial and $16.3M Thermal Barrier. Company reiterates expectation of sequential revenue growth each quarter through 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to sequential revenue growth through 2026, with Q2 revenue expected between $40.0M and $48.0M (up roughly 5%–28% quarter‑over‑quarter from Q1’s $37.9M, which included $21.6M Energy & Industrial and $16.3M thermal barrier), and Q2 adjusted EBITDA of negative $10M to negative $4M (Q1 adjusted EBITDA was negative $12.7M and GAAP net loss was $23.7M). Management reiterated a target of ~20% Energy & Industrial growth in 2026 and the ambition to scale that segment into a $200M high‑margin business, with EU thermal barrier revenue expected to be ~$10M–$15M in 2026; they also expect EBITDA breakeven at roughly $50M of quarterly revenue and have reduced breakeven from $330M (2024) to $200M (2026) and to $175M by end of 2027. Liquidity guidance included Q1 cash of $175.6M (up from $158.6M), $37.6M GM claim proceeds recognized ratably through 2027 ( $3.5M booked in Q1, ~$4.9M/quarter thereafter), an $86M term‑loan balance with covenant headroom (cash ≥ 100% of term loan), full‑year CapEx < $10M, scheduled debt payments of ~ $26M, and the expectation that Q2 cash outflows could be $20M–$30M (including ~ $12M of CapEx and scheduled debt payments) while they manage elevated near‑term costs from the East Providence disruption.Aspen Aerogels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 202.09M | 271.10M | 452.70M | 238.72M | 180.36M | 121.62M |
| Gross Profit | 5.41M | 46.00M | 182.90M | 56.92M | 4.98M | 9.94M |
| EBITDA | -74.64M | 5.72B | 51.46M | -22.31M | -68.41M | -27.43M |
| Net Income | -126.20M | -389.55M | 13.38M | -45.81M | -82.74M | -37.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 392.94M | 406.68M | 895.14M | 703.05M | 643.42M | 182.95M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 151.71M | 156.86M | 220.88M | 139.72M | 281.33M | 76.56M |
| Total Debt | 125.11M | 143.71M | 197.38M | 138.77M | 119.40M | 15.24M |
| Total Liabilities | 200.47M | 171.16M | 280.44M | 214.99M | 195.98M | 54.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 192.46M | 235.52M | 614.71M | 488.06M | 447.44M | 128.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 37.55M | -4.58M | -40.71M | -218.07M | -272.37M | -32.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 49.12M | 32.87M | 45.55M | -42.61M | -94.40M | -18.63M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.73M | -37.45M | -86.26M | -175.46M | -177.97M | -13.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -48.99M | -58.13M | 122.02M | 75.48M | 478.37M | 92.47M |
Aspen Aerogels Technical Analysis
Positive
5.23
Price Trends
5.22
Positive
5.43
Positive
4.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Negative
61.70
Neutral
77.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.16, above the 50-day MA of 5.22, and above the 200-day MA of 4.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ASPN.
Aspen Aerogels Risk Analysis
Aspen Aerogels disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aspen Aerogels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aspen Aerogels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $3.78B | 22.13 | 7.17% | 2.67% | 2.36% | 42.56% | |
67 Neutral | $3.97B | 21.32 | 12.07% | 2.40% | -4.74% | -53.83% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $656.76M | 7.31 | 19.47% | 3.36% | 1.06% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $2.07B | -30.47 | -4.04% | 0.72% | 4.06% | -3189.89% | |
54 Neutral | $9.17B | 43.38 | 10.89% | 0.39% | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | $472.21M | -3.72 | -53.29% | 6.79% | -49.12% | 59.96% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
ASPN
Aspen Aerogels
5.69
-3.01
-34.60%
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Aspen Aerogels Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aspen Aerogels Highlights Growth Strategy in Investor Presentation
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
On September 15, 2026, Aspen Aerogels posted a new investor presentation outlining its operational scale, financial profile and strategic focus across energy industrial and electric vehicle thermal barrier markets. The deck highlights $202 million...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aspen Aerogels Reports Q2 Revenue Decline, Outlook Raised
Negative
Aug 6, 2026
Aspen Aerogels reported that second-quarter 2026 revenue fell to $49.8 million from $78.0 million a year earlier, as Thermal Barrier sales dropped due to changes in North American EV regulations, while Energy Industrial revenue declined modestly. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.