Amplitude (AMPL) AI Stock Analysis

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Amplitude

(NASDAQ:AMPL)

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Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:$18.50▲(9.86% Upside)

Action:downgraded

Date:10/16/26

AMPL scores as a moderately strong setup driven primarily by improving fundamentals (positive and growing free cash flow, low leverage, and continued revenue growth) and supportive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). The score is held back by still-negative GAAP profitability and valuation limitations due to negative earnings and no dividend yield, despite an encouraging earnings call that raised guidance and highlighted strong ARR/RPO and cash generation alongside margin pressure from AI and Statsig integration.

Positive Factors

Strong recurring growth and contracted revenueDouble-digit ARR growth and expanding remaining performance obligations support durable subscription revenue visibility. The combination of recurring customer commitments and rising contracted value gives Amplitude a stronger base for continued expansion over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Persistent operating and net lossesAmplitude has not yet demonstrated sustained GAAP profitability despite continued revenue growth. Persistent operating and net losses can constrain reinvestment flexibility, leave earnings power unproven, and make future performance more dependent on achieving operating leverage.

Amplitude Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Revenue by GeographyBreaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart Insights

US remains Amplitude’s growth engine—enterprise expansion and multiproduct adoption have driven outsized U.S. revenue gains versus steadier international growth. Management’s Statsig deal and AI product push should accelerate ARR and cross‑sell, but much of the ~$16M incremental ARR faces accounting/fair‑value deferrals and will only partially show in FY guidance; near‑term gross‑margin pressure from higher inference and integration costs could compress profits even as bookings (RPO) and large‑customer growth support durable revenue momentum.

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The Fly

Amplitude (AMPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.23B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E): -22.5
Beta (1Y): 1.65
Revenue Growth: 18.26%
EPS Growth: -0.63%
Country: US
Employees: 795
Sector: Technology
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Software - Application

Amplitude Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amplitude, Inc. offers a sophisticated digital optimization platform to businesses across the United States and globally, focusing on analyzing and enhancing customer behavior within their digital products. The company's extensive product portfolio i...

How the Company Makes Money

Amplitude primarily makes money by selling access to its software platform on a subscription basis (software-as-a-service). Customers typically pay recurring fees (generally annual or multi-period contracts) for licensed use of the platform, with pri...

Amplitude Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:68.23%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call emphasized strong top-line growth, ARR expansion, record free cash flow, accelerating product-led AI adoption (global agents, Wade, Statsig integration) and clear cross-sell opportunities. Management also disclosed margin pressure from integrating Statsig and rising inference/COGS as they scale AI capabilities, plus the need to educate the field and customers on the broader platform. Overall the positives around revenue, ARR, cash generation, product innovation and early commercial traction outweigh the integration and margin headwinds.

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth

Q2 revenue of $100.9–$101M, up 21% year-over-year and up 8% sequentially; Q3 revenue guide $105.6–$108M (~21% growth at midpoint).

Negative Updates

Gross Margin Pressure from Statsig Integration and AI Inference Costs

Overall gross margin was 71% in Q2, down ~4 percentage points year-over-year and sequentially; Statsig's hosting environment is currently in the low 50s gross margin range and expected to take time to optimize, while rising inference costs from AI adoption reduced gross margins by an additional ~2 points versus Q1.

Company Guidance

Management guided Q3 2026 revenue of $105.6–$108.0 million (≈21% YoY at the midpoint), non‑GAAP operating income of $2.5–$4.5 million and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.02–$0.03 (assuming ~133 million fully diluted shares); for full‑year 2026 they raised revenue guidance to $407.2–$411.2 million (≈19% YoY at the midpoint), bumped full‑year non‑GAAP operating income to $6.3–$9.3 million and set non‑GAAP EPS at $0.06–$0.08 (assuming ~137.1 million fully diluted shares). The outlook reflects Q2 results (Q2 revenue $100.9M, ARR $410M up 22% YoY and +$36M sequentially including $17M from Statsig, total RPO $483M up 35% YoY, current RPO +30% YoY, long‑term RPO +47% YoY, and record free cash flow of $23.7M) and management’s plan to drive operating leverage despite higher AI‑related COGS.

Amplitude Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show improving quality but still an incomplete profitability profile. Revenue is growing with strong, software-like gross margins, the balance sheet carries very low debt, and cash flow has turned solidly positive (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive). The main constraint is ongoing GAAP losses and declining equity, keeping the long-term earnings profile unproven.

Income Statement

48Neutral

Balance Sheet

76Positive

Cash Flow

72Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	374.37M	343.21M	299.27M	276.28M	238.07M	167.26M
Gross Profit	271.11M	253.93M	222.35M	204.36M	167.63M	115.50M
EBITDA	-87.88M	-75.73M	-86.42M	-83.47M	-87.92M	-70.86M
Net Income	-99.53M	-88.54M	-94.32M	-90.36M	-93.38M	-74.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	356.58M	420.68M	445.91M	433.68M	413.75M	400.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	140.54M	192.00M	241.10M	322.40M	230.47M	307.44M
Total Debt	5.54M	9.57M	5.58M	8.18M	11.09M	0
Total Liabilities	220.38M	175.34M	149.35M	138.93M	118.79M	93.84M
Stockholders Equity	136.20M	245.35M	296.56M	294.75M	294.97M	306.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	28.30M	28.20M	11.73M	22.45M	-11.19M	-34.94M
Operating Cash Flow	31.77M	29.82M	18.51M	25.63M	-5.38M	-31.71M
Investing Cash Flow	69.08M	-55.08M	-75.37M	9.32M	-89.39M	-1.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-146.71M	-65.33M	-19.94M	-4.94M	5.83M	222.64M

Amplitude Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price16.84

Price Trends

50DMA14.62Positive

100DMA12.05Positive

200DMA9.67Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.80Positive

RSI62.65Neutral

STOCH54.72Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.22, above the 50-day MA of 14.62, and above the 200-day MA of 9.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMPL.

Amplitude Risk Analysis

Amplitude disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Amplitude reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

1 New Risk

1.We expect fluctuations in our financial results and key metrics, making it difficult to project future results. If we fail to meet the expectations of securities analysts or investors with respect to our results of operations, the trading price of our Class A common stock could decline.Q1, 2026

Amplitude Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

AMPL against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRSH	82Outperform	$3.71B	19.04	19.50%	―	15.57%	―
SMWB	73Outperform	$762.12M	-34.85	-94.75%	―	10.16%	28.29%
SPT	69Neutral	$733.04M	-23.86	-14.05%	―	11.85%	47.54%
AMPL	68Neutral	$2.10B	-22.45	-46.24%	―	18.26%	-0.63%
BRZE	66Neutral	$5.19B	-44.46	-18.78%	―	27.44%	0.82%
CXM	64Neutral	$1.60B	70.11	4.29%	―	6.35%	-79.74%
Sector *	61Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AMPL and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
AMPL	Amplitude Inc Class A	16.84	6.93	69.93%
SPT	Sprout Social Inc Class A	11.93	2.06	20.87%
SMWB	Similarweb Ltd.	8.75	0.34	4.04%
CXM	Sprinklr, Inc.	6.71	-0.81	-10.77%
FRSH	Freshworks, Inc. Class A	14.15	3.30	30.41%
BRZE	Braze, Inc.	45.79	18.55	68.10%

Amplitude Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes

Amplitude adds AI experimentation leader to board

Positive

Oct 15, 2026

On October 15, 2026, Amplitude, Inc. expanded its Board of Directors from eight to nine members and appointed Statsig founder and OpenAI CTO of Applications Vijaye Raji as a Class III director, with an initial term running through the 2027 annual sha...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 16, 2026

Amplitude AI Stock Analysis