Amplitude (AMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.60B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 8.56%
• EPS Growth: -4.21%
• Country: US
• Employees: 740
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 77
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 98,795,586
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,269,620
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,486,749
• PEG Ratio: 0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 97.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.37
• 1Y Price Target: $13.90
• Price Target Upside: 14.03% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

Amplitude's overall score reflects strong growth in revenue and ARR, supported by strategic innovations and customer expansions. However, profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh on the score. Positive technical momentum provides some optimism, but macroeconomic uncertainties and continued operating losses remain key risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Amplitude reported excellent 1Q financial results led by net new ARR increasing 100% Y/Y, highlighting both stronger sales execution and how downsell is largely in the rearview mirror.

Strategic Initiatives

AMPL just announced its first ever share buyback which should support shares at current levels.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

The market for product tools is quite fragmented, and Amplitude has made great strides in expanding its capabilities to address multiple product-related problems in one place.

Product Expansion Challenges

Customers were not yet materially expanding past the core Product Analytics offering.

Amplitude Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Amplitude, Inc. provides a digital optimization system to analyze customer behavior within digital products in the United States and internationally. It offers Amplitude analytics for insights of customer behavior; Amplitude Recommend, a no-code personalization solution that helps to increase customer engagement by adapting digital products and campaigns to every user based on behavior; Amplitude Experiment, an integrated solution that enables teams to determine and deliver the product experiences for their customers through A/B tests and controlled feature releases; Amplitude Behavioral Graph, a proprietary database for deep, real-time interactive behavioral analysis, and behavior-driven personalization – instantly joining, analyzing, and correlating any customer actions to outcomes, such as engagement, growth, and loyalty; and data management, a real-time data layer for planning, integrating, and managing data sources to create a foundation with identity resolution, enterprise-level security, and privacy solutions. The company also provides customer support services related to initial implementation setup, ongoing support, and application training. It delivers its application over the Internet as a subscription service using a software-as-a-service model. The company was formerly known as Sonalight, Inc. and changed its name to Amplitude, Inc. in December 2014. Amplitude, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Amplitude generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model for its software-as-a-service platform. Businesses pay for access to Amplitude's comprehensive suite of analytics tools, which are priced based on factors such as the number of users, volume of data tracked, and specific features or services utilized. The company also offers premium tiers and add-ons that provide advanced capabilities and integrations, contributing to upselling opportunities. Strategic partnerships with other technology providers enhance its ecosystem and extend its reach, further contributing to revenue generation.

Amplitude Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Amplitude is in a growth phase with strong revenue expansion but faces challenges in profitability. The balance sheet is robust with minimal debt, offering financial stability. Cash flow management shows some improvement, but further steps are needed to align cash generation with operational results. Overall, the company exhibits growth potential but must address profitability and cash flow to enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

Amplitude's TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate is 8.31%, indicating solid expansion, consistent with the software industry's growth trajectory. However, the company faces profitability challenges with a negative net profit margin of -31.52% and an EBIT margin of -35.88%, reflecting ongoing operational losses. The gross profit margin of 74.28% suggests strong product profitability, but high operating expenses are eroding overall profitability.

Balance Sheet

Amplitude maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, indicating minimal leverage. The equity ratio is 66.50%, showing a strong reliance on equity financing. However, the negative return on equity of -31.81% highlights profitability issues despite a solid equity base. The company is financially stable but needs to improve its return on equity.

Cash Flow

The company's operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.20, signaling that cash flow generation is not yet matching net income losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio of -0.15 further emphasizes the need for improved cash generation. However, the TTM free cash flow of $14.27 million is a positive sign, showing some progress in cash management.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
299.27M	276.28M	238.07M	167.26M	102.46M
	Gross Profit
222.35M	204.36M	167.63M	115.50M	71.98M
	EBIT
-107.38M	-94.38M	-96.56M	-74.15M	-24.00M
	EBITDA
-101.28M	-88.76M	-91.90M	-71.06M	-22.31M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-94.32M	-90.36M	-93.38M	-74.98M	-24.57M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
241.10M	322.40M	230.47M	307.44M	117.78M
	Total Assets
445.91M	433.68M	413.75M	400.39M	175.08M
	Total Debt
5.58M	8.18M	11.09M	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-166.09M	-240.32M	-207.40M	-307.44M	-117.78M
	Total Liabilities
149.35M	138.93M	118.79M	93.84M	242.20M
	Stockholders Equity
296.56M	294.75M	294.97M	306.55M	-67.12M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
16.78M	22.45M	-11.19M	-34.94M	-12.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
18.51M	25.63M	-5.38M	-31.71M	-10.39M
	Investing Cash Flow
-75.37M	9.32M	-89.39M	-1.50M	-5.91M
	Financing Cash Flow
-19.94M	-4.94M	5.83M	222.64M	54.24M

Amplitude Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.11, above the 50-day MA of 10.24, and above the 200-day MA of 10.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.97 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMPL.

Amplitude Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAVE	76 Outperform	$2.47B	51.02	32.09%	―	39.29%	―
ML	69 Neutral	$972.40M	114.79	3.34%	―	28.92%	―
SEMR	66 Neutral	$1.60B	231.83	2.81%	―	22.75%	-47.45%
SPT	65 Neutral	$1.39B	―	-36.95%	―	17.79%	16.49%
AMPL	63 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-32.87%	―	8.56%	-4.21%
MLNK	63 Neutral	$1.32B	―	-6.49%	―	5.15%	28.27%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$11.58B	10.33	-7.23%	2.94%	7.47%	-10.84%

Amplitude Corporate Events

Amplitude Appoints Tien Tzuo to Board of Directors

On February 22, 2025, Amplitude appointed Tien Tzuo, founder and CEO of Zuora, as a Class I director on its Board of Directors, expanding the board from nine to ten members. Tzuo, known for his strategic marketing expertise and leadership experience, will also serve on the Audit and Nominating Committees, receiving compensation in cash and restricted stock units. His appointment is expected to bolster Amplitude’s position as a leader in digital analytics, leveraging his experience from Salesforce and Zuora to enhance customer-centric strategies and product innovation.