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Alignment Healthcare
(NASDAQ:ALHC)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-27.95% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
Overall score reflects improving fundamentals and a supportive earnings outlook (strong revenue growth guidance, rising adjusted profitability, and solid cash/liquidity), partially offset by very weak price/technical momentum and a high P/E valuation that leaves less room for execution misses or margin volatility.
Positive Factors
Membership & Revenue Scale
Sustained double‑digit membership and revenue growth demonstrates durable demand in the Medicare Advantage market and gives the company scale to negotiate provider contracts, spread fixed costs and improve per‑member economics as cohorts mature, supporting medium‑term profitability expansion.
Negative Factors
Very Thin Profit Margins
Despite revenue scale, operating profitability remains minimal, leaving the business highly sensitive to utilization shifts, pricing benchmarks or cost inflation. Sustaining positive ROE requires consistent margin improvement; any deterioration could quickly reverse recent earnings gains and strain capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Membership & Revenue Scale
Sustained double‑digit membership and revenue growth demonstrates durable demand in the Medicare Advantage market and gives the company scale to negotiate provider contracts, spread fixed costs and improve per‑member economics as cohorts mature, supporting medium‑term profitability expansion.
Read all positive factors
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)67.5
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth37.21%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,849
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Healthcare Plans
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.20
Shares Outstanding207,435,150
10 Day Avg. Volume3,276,315
30 Day Avg. Volume4,629,108
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio53.67
Price to Book (P/B)21.81
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio34.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.86Price Target Upside12.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.21B
Alignment Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alignment Healthcare, Inc. is a technology-driven Medicare Advantage provider operating a healthcare platform focused squarely on the consumer. This organization delivers personalized medical services across the United States, primarily for elderl...
How the Company Makes Money
Alignment Healthcare makes money primarily by offering Medicare Advantage plans and receiving monthly capitation payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for each enrolled member. These payments are set on a per-member-per-...
Alignment Healthcare Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strong growth and margin-improvement story: membership and revenue grew ~31%-32% YoY, adjusted EBITDA rose 48% YoY, MBR improved ~40 bps, cash and leverage are healthy, and management raised revenue and profitability guidance while outlining sizable embedded earnings potential and meaningful clinical/AI investments. Offsetting these positives are intentional near-term investments that will increase Q3/Q4 MBR and SG&A (potentially a double-digit million impact), a smaller-than-last-year new-member sweep benefit, a modest prior-year reserve build (~$6M) and regulatory uncertainty. On balance, the company demonstrates operational execution and scalability while accepting some short-term cost headwinds to pursue longer-term growth and portability.Positive Updates
Strong Membership Growth
Health plan membership reached 294,000 in Q2, up ~31% year-over-year, driven by strong new member additions and high retention; company raised its membership outlook for the year (Q3 guide: 296k-298k; FY guide: ~298k).
Negative Updates
Near-term Investment-Driven Headwinds
Management plans additional investments in Q3 (clinical hiring, AVA Care Anywhere ramp, automation) and SG&A (branding, market launches) that could constitute an additional double-digit million impact in H2 (weighting higher in Q3), producing a seasonally higher MBR and greater SG&A cadence in Q3 versus prior years.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Membership Growth
Health plan membership reached 294,000 in Q2, up ~31% year-over-year, driven by strong new member additions and high retention; company raised its membership outlook for the year (Q3 guide: 296k-298k; FY guide: ~298k).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alignment guided full‑year 2026 membership at roughly 298k, revenue of $5.20–5.23 billion, adjusted gross profit of $630–650 million and adjusted EBITDA of $145–163 million (midpoint $154M), noting ~32% revenue growth year‑over‑year; Q3 guidance calls for 296–298k members, $1.30–1.32 billion of revenue, $148–158 million of adjusted gross profit and $20–30 million of adjusted EBITDA. Management said first‑half adjusted EBITDA was $106M and that they are on track to the midpoint, expect ~30% of full‑year adjusted EBITDA in H2 (vs. ~40% prior year) due to a flatter Part D MBR and planned investments, raised the low end of FY adjusted gross profit by $10M and adj EBITDA low end by $7M, and signaled potential incremental H2 investments (clinical and SG&A) in the double‑digit millions (weighted to Q3); they ended Q2 with $702M cash, $111M operating cash flow YTD and funded leverage of 2.2x trailing‑12‑month EBITDA.Alignment Healthcare Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.58B | 3.95B | 2.70B | 1.82B | 1.43B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 574.42M | 488.56M | 296.69M | 201.03M | 184.28M | 128.73M |
| EBITDA | 86.52M | 45.32M | -77.44M | -105.30M | -113.53M | -161.81M |
| Net Income | 40.70M | -724.00K | -128.03M | -148.02M | -149.55M | -195.29M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.28B | 1.07B | 782.06M | 591.88M | 633.86M | 630.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 701.71M | 604.23M | 470.65M | 318.82M | 409.55M | 466.60M |
| Total Debt | 330.50M | 329.64M | 329.26M | 170.79M | 164.60M | 157.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.01B | 886.51M | 681.11M | 433.81M | 394.56M | 324.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 265.13M | 179.28M | 99.85M | 156.95M | 238.13M | 306.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 205.55M | 113.15M | -6.65M | -95.18M | -69.20M | -97.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 205.55M | 139.93M | 34.77M | -59.19M | -45.43M | -78.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.85M | -14.97M | 39.19M | -147.26M | -28.22M | -20.82M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 19.53M | 18.04M | 156.03M | 105.00K | 16.59M | 360.13M |
Alignment Healthcare Technical Analysis
Negative
19.43
Price Trends
19.09
Negative
18.79
Negative
19.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.80
Positive
32.42
Neutral
31.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.07, above the 50-day MA of 19.09, and above the 200-day MA of 19.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALHC.
Alignment Healthcare Risk Analysis
Alignment Healthcare disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alignment Healthcare reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alignment Healthcare Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $10.11B | 18.45 | 38.53% | ― | 42.82% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $2.44B | -105.43 | -5.38% | ― | 54.04% | 57.31% | |
63 Neutral | $46.72B | 36.08 | 6.91% | 0.91% | 18.33% | -18.53% | |
60 Neutral | $33.33B | -6.20 | -24.03% | ― | 13.89% | -356.11% | |
58 Neutral | $2.90B | 67.47 | 20.02% | ― | 37.21% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
51 Neutral | $11.09B | 1,269.12 | -0.17% | ― | 2.55% | -100.90% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ALHC
Alignment Healthcare
13.46
-1.44
-9.66%
CNC
Centene
64.41
35.08
119.60%
HUM
Humana
384.31
100.16
35.25%
MOH
Molina Healthcare
203.06
29.21
16.80%
CLOV
Clover Health Investments
4.27
1.75
69.44%
OSCR
Oscar Health
31.55
14.92
89.72%
Alignment Healthcare Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alignment Healthcare shareholders back board, pay and auditor
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
At its virtual annual meeting on June 4, 2026, Alignment Healthcare, Inc. reported that shareholders elected three Class II directors—Jody Bilney, David Hodgson and Jacqueline Kosecoff—to new three-year terms ending with the 2029 annua...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Alignment Healthcare Elevates Founder John Kao to Chairman
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Alignment Healthcare’s board amended its bylaws to formally create the role of vice chair, empowering that position to preside over board meetings in the chairman’s absence, a move that refines the company’s gover...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.