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Adobe (ADBE) AI Stock Analysis
Adobe
(NASDAQ:ADBE)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—elite margins and excellent free-cash-flow generation—supported by a reasonable earnings multiple. Earnings-call commentary is a net positive with raised guidance and strong AI/ARR momentum, but near-term growth quality risks (slower revenue growth, single-digit RPO growth, and sharply lower net new ARR) plus mixed technicals keep the overall score below the highest tier.
Adobe Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Revenue by GeographyBreaks down sales by region (e.g., Americas, EMEA, APAC), revealing where Adobe is strongest, where growth is accelerating or slowing, and how currency or regional exposure could affect future results.
Adobe’s growth is broad-based but America remains the revenue engine while EMEA and APAC are gaining share on a faster percentage trajectory, helped by the SEMrush addition and stronger international adoption. Management’s raised FY26 guidance confirms momentum, but the strategic pivot to freemium and deferral of Creative Cloud pricing will deliberately slow near‑term ARR conversion and inject seasonal variability—a short‑term headwind for regional revenue conversion despite healthier long‑term demand and ARR expansion.
The FlyAdobe (ADBE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $95.80B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 4.65M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 13.7
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.96
- Revenue Growth
- 12.03%
- EPS Growth
- 11.41%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 31,360
- Sector
- Technology
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Software - Application
Adobe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adobe Inc. stands as a prominent global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into three primary business divisions: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Me...
How the Company Makes Money
Adobe primarily makes money by selling software subscriptions and cloud services across three main product areas: (1) Creative tools, (2) Digital experience and marketing tools, and (3) Document solutions. Its core revenue model is recurring subscrip...
Adobe Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, supported by record revenue and cash flow, double-digit subscription and ARR growth, substantial expansion in monthly active users, accelerating Firefly usage, strong enterprise activity, and raised full-year revenue and EPS targets. The main challenges were single-digit RPO growth, a 36% to 37% year-over-year decline in net new ARR, the stated near-term headwinds from the freemium strategy and deferred pricing initiatives, and a slight Q4 FX headwind. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For Q4 FY 26, Adobe is targeting Total Adobe revenue of $6.8 billion to $6.85 billion, Business professionals and consumer subscription revenue of $1.93 billion to $1.95 billion, Creative and Marketing Professional subscription revenue of $4.665 billion to $4.695 billion, GAAP EPS of $4.65 to $4.70 and non GAAP EPS of $6.30 to $6.35, with non GAAP operating margin of approximately 44%, GAAP tax rate of approximately 2% and a non GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%; for FY 2026, it is targeting total Adobe revenue of $26.576 billion to $26.626 billion, Business Professionals and Consumer subscription revenue of $7.47 billion to $7.49 billion, Creative and Marketing Professional subscription revenue $18.242 billion to $18.272 billion, total Adobe ending ARR, book of business growth of 10.2% year over year compared to our FY 2026 beginning book of business of $25.66 billion, GAAP EPS of $18.12 to $18.17 and non GAAP EPS of $24.45 to $24.50, with non GAAP operating margin approximately 45%, a GAAP tax rate of approximately 22.5%, and a non GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%; Q4 will be larger than the Q3 number, Q4 is our seasonally strong quarter, and a very strong enterprise quarter for us.
Adobe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
High-quality software fundamentals with exceptional profitability (TTM gross margin ~89%, net margin ~28%) and very strong cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$11.2B; free cash flow ~$10.9B with ~98% conversion vs. net income). Key offset is the notable slowdown in revenue growth (TTM ~3% vs. prior ~10–23%) and some easing in margins, though the latest balance sheet snapshot appears low-risk with very low debt-to-equity (~0.03).
Income Statement
86Very PositiveBalance Sheet
78PositiveCash Flow
90Very Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.97B | 23.77B | 21.50B | 19.41B | 17.61B | 15.79B |
| Gross Profit | 23.14B | 21.22B | 19.15B | 17.05B | 15.44B | 13.92B |
| EBITDA | 10.24B | 9.81B | 7.96B | 7.78B | 6.95B | 6.60B |
| Net Income | 7.28B | 7.13B | 5.56B | 5.43B | 4.76B | 4.82B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 29.98B | 29.50B | 30.23B | 29.78B | 27.16B | 27.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.64B | 6.59B | 7.89B | 7.84B | 6.10B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 6.76B | 6.65B | 6.06B | 4.08B | 4.63B | 4.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.22B | 17.87B | 16.13B | 13.26B | 13.11B | 12.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.76B | 11.62B | 14.11B | 16.52B | 14.05B | 14.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.59B | 9.85B | 7.87B | 6.94B | 7.40B | 6.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.81B | 10.03B | 8.06B | 7.30B | 7.84B | 7.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -1.19B | 149.00M | 776.00M | -570.00M | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.37B | -11.06B | -7.72B | -5.18B | -6.83B | -4.30B |
Adobe Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADBE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 246.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 248.30, below the 50-day MA of 253.89, and below the 200-day MA of 250.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADBE.
Adobe Risk Analysis
Adobe disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adobe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksAdobe Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
CRM86Outperform- ADBE79Outperform
DOCU77Outperform
FIG73Outperform
TEAM72Outperform
HUBS58Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | 86Outperform | $186.15B | 20.20 | 20.15% | 0.78% | 11.23% | 58.19% |
| ADBE | 79Outperform | $97.87B | 13.71 | 62.88% | ― | 12.03% | 11.41% |
| DOCU | 77Outperform | $15.26B | 48.12 | 17.74% | ― | 8.59% | 20.88% |
| FIG | 73Outperform | $11.83B | -6.68 | -108.20% | ― | 43.43% | -1737.89% |
| TEAM | 72Outperform | $47.12B | -909.76 | -4.39% | ― | 26.02% | 81.08% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
| HUBS | 58Neutral | $11.64B | 79.92 | 7.75% | ― | 21.08% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE | Adobe Systems Incorporated | 246.14 | -89.39 | -26.64% | |
| CRM | Salesforce.com | 222.20 | -28.35 | -11.32% | |
| HUBS | HubSpot, Inc. | 226.17 | -238.54 | -51.33% | |
| TEAM | Atlassian Corporation Plc | 191.05 | 29.59 | 18.33% | |
| DOCU | Docusign | 80.36 | 9.46 | 13.34% | |
| FIG | Figma, Inc. Class A | 21.03 | -22.98 | -52.22% |
Adobe Corporate Events
Adobe names Anil Chakravarthy as new CEO
PositiveOn September 2, 2026, Adobe’s board appointed Anil Chakravarthy, currently president of the Customer Experience Orchestration business and worldwide field operations, as president and chief executive officer and a director, effective December 1...
Adobe bolsters executive retention amid CEO transition
NeutralOn July 14, 2026, Adobe’s Executive Compensation Committee approved a retention letter for executive Louise Pentland that provides defined severance benefits if she is terminated without cause or resigns for good reason. The package includes a...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 15, 2026