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Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)
NASDAQ:AAOI
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Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) AI Stock Analysis

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AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics

(NASDAQ:AAOI)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$107.00
▼(-5.44% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is held back mainly by weak cash flow and ongoing profitability challenges in the financials, along with bearish technical signals. Offsetting these are strong earnings-call guidance and demand/capacity expansion momentum, plus supportive (but execution-dependent) expansion-related corporate actions.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and data-center product growth
Rapid revenue growth and expanding adoption of 400G and 800G products indicate strong demand for AAOI’s networking portfolio. Continued migration toward higher-speed infrastructure can support durable volume growth, improve product mix, and strengthen the company’s position as customer networks scale.
Negative Factors
Deeply negative cash generation
Persistent cash consumption limits AAOI’s ability to finance growth internally and increases reliance on equity issuance, borrowing, or other external funding. Negative operating and free cash flow also reduces resilience if demand, production ramps, or working-capital requirements develop less favorably.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and data-center product growth
Rapid revenue growth and expanding adoption of 400G and 800G products indicate strong demand for AAOI’s networking portfolio. Continued migration toward higher-speed infrastructure can support durable volume growth, improve product mix, and strengthen the company’s position as customer networks scale.
Read all positive factors

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Applied Optoelectronics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is a global technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of fiber-optic networking solutions. Its extensive product catalog features optical modules, a range of laser components, s...
How the Company Makes Money
AAOI primarily makes money by selling fiber-optic communication products—most notably optical transceivers (pluggable modules that convert electrical signals to optical signals and back) used to connect network equipment in high-speed networks. Re...

Applied Optoelectronics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated very strong demand, record revenue growth (86% YoY), return to non-GAAP profitability, clear product momentum in 400G/800G/1.6T, and aggressive U.S. capacity expansion funded by recent equity raises. However, the company repeatedly emphasized that near-term revenue is capacity- and component-constrained, is incurring elevated OpEx and heavy CapEx to scale, and faces customer concentration and some supply-chain/timing risks. On balance, the operational wins, robust guidance, and financial resources to fund expansion outweigh the execution and supply constraints described.
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $191.9M (rounded to $192M) was a company record, up 86% year-over-year and up 27% sequentially; company delivered 5th consecutive quarter of record revenue.
Negative Updates
Capacity and Supply Constraints Limiting Near-Term Revenue
Company repeatedly stated near-term revenue is bounded by production capacity and key component availability; forecast demand expected to outpace production capacity through mid-2027, constraining ability to monetize strong demand.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Top-Line Growth
Q2 revenue of $191.9M (rounded to $192M) was a company record, up 86% year-over-year and up 27% sequentially; company delivered 5th consecutive quarter of record revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AOI guided Q3 revenue of $255M–$290M (midpoint ≈130% YoY growth), non‑GAAP gross margin of 29.0%–30.5%, non‑GAAP net income of $10.1M–$24.0M and non‑GAAP EPS of $0.11–$0.26 on ~92.8M diluted shares, and expects Q3 CATV revenue of $100M–$110M; for 2026 management reiterated revenue of ~$1.1B (limited by production capacity and component availability) and continued non‑GAAP profitability, while forecasting non‑GAAP operating expenses of $70M–$80M per quarter. They said current 800G/1.6T capacity is approaching ~200k units/month (up from ~100k at Q1), targeting >650k/month by year‑end and >930k/month by end‑2027 (over half in Texas), that 800G revenue (Q2 was $12.8M and 11.9% of data‑center revenue) should grow ~5x in Q3, and that CPO ELS production could ultimately reach ~400k pieces/month in 2028; Q2 results to date included $191.9M revenue, 29.8% non‑GAAP gross margin, $5.5M non‑GAAP net income ($0.06/share), $508.8M cash, $278.8M inventory, $92.8M debt, $565.5M Q2 capex (including $280M equipment prepayments), and $538.8M raised under the ATM.

Applied Optoelectronics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mixed fundamentals: revenue growth has improved and gross margin is ~29% (TTM), and leverage is low (debt-to-equity ~0.11). However, profitability is still negative (TTM net margin about -9.6%) and cash generation is a major concern with materially negative operating cash flow (~-$217M) and deeply negative free cash flow (~-$557M).
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue595.97M455.71M249.37M217.65M222.82M211.56M
Gross Profit172.33M136.91M61.80M58.92M33.63M37.72M
EBITDA-35.27M-15.51M-159.26M-26.18M-36.88M-23.17M
Net Income-57.02M-38.23M-186.73M-56.05M-66.40M-54.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.30B1.17B547.03M389.19M408.26M454.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments499.74M216.03M67.43M45.37M24.68M34.66M
Total Debt264.54M167.33M190.86M121.07M155.53M149.90M
Total Liabilities633.17M434.50M317.92M174.32M223.59M199.89M
Stockholders Equity1.67B733.92M229.11M214.87M184.67M254.57M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-413.26M-353.58M-112.93M-17.60M-18.26M-22.30M
Operating Cash Flow-131.82M-174.43M-69.53M-7.93M-14.02M-11.64M
Investing Cash Flow-769.12M-210.60M-50.70M-14.76M-3.83M-10.55M
Financing Cash Flow1.31B527.94M142.18M40.58M10.75M14.09M

Applied Optoelectronics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price113.15
Price Trends
50DMA
117.63
Negative
100DMA
143.94
Negative
200DMA
101.51
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-5.61
Positive
RSI
43.62
Neutral
STOCH
20.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAOI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 113.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 121.11, below the 50-day MA of 117.63, and above the 200-day MA of 101.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AAOI.

Applied Optoelectronics Risk Analysis

Applied Optoelectronics disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Applied Optoelectronics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Applied Optoelectronics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$45.52B69.4822.82%32.57%367.53%
71
Outperform
$430.53B32.5027.39%1.52%11.77%27.65%
71
Outperform
$79.05B-9.48-300.07%83.22%-24212.72%
66
Neutral
$2.26B45.526.54%27.84%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
58
Neutral
$56.14B68.264.55%1.63%13.04%-24.13%
52
Neutral
$8.96B-135.50-5.61%61.85%76.82%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics
105.53
81.90
346.59%
CALX
Calix
35.96
-25.14
-41.15%
CIEN
Ciena
321.00
202.00
169.75%
CSCO
Cisco Systems
109.20
43.68
66.66%
NOK
Nokia
10.03
5.51
121.80%
LITE
Lumentum Holdings
881.26
731.86
489.86%

Applied Optoelectronics Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Applied Optoelectronics Signs Major Long-Term Houston Leases
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics entered into two long-term leases with Hightower Phase II Owner for newly constructed industrial Buildings 4 and 5 in Houston, intended for light manufacturing, warehousing and related uses. The 10-year ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Applied Optoelectronics Updates Indemnification for Leadership
Positive
Aug 24, 2026
On August 18, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.’s board approved and adopted an updated indemnification agreement for its directors and certain executive officers, replacing prior agreements and extending to future leadership. The revised ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Applied Optoelectronics Announces New Equity Distribution Program
Neutral
Aug 21, 2026
On August 21, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with Raymond James Associates, Inc. and Needham Company, LLC to offer up to $600 million of its common stock through at-the-market transactions. The ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Applied Optoelectronics Launches Major Houston Cleanroom Expansion
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. signed a design-build agreement with LCC3 Solution Inc. to construct its OMD 3 (FAB4) cleanroom project in Houston, Texas, comprising about 195,591 square feet of ISO Class 6 cleanroom space, 36,500 ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Applied Optoelectronics Doubles Chinese Credit Line Capacity
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Global Technology, Inc., a subsidiary of Applied Optoelectronics, entered into a new one-year credit line agreement with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank in Ningbo, China, doubling its available credit from RMB 250,000,000 to RMB...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2026