Two of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), are set to release their third-quarter 2025 earnings results tomorrow, likely before the market opens. What does Wall Street expect from them, and which offers the better upside potential?
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The supermajors’ results are due as crude oil prices trended under $70 per barrel for much of the recent quarter, with producers turning to cost-saving measures such as job cuts to stay afloat.
Recently, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang revised her price targets for the two Big Oil companies, including ConocoPhillips (COP), following her preview of their upcoming Q3 reports.
Do analysts remain bearish on Big Oil’s Q3 performance? Which of the American oil majors provides the better upside?
What Are Wall Street Expectations?
For both oil producers, Wall Street expects revenue and earnings per share to fall below figures from the same period last year. This is despite the significant increase in production recorded by both companies during Q2 2025.
ExxonMobil — For ExxonMobil, the largest oil and gas company in the U.S., analysts anticipate its revenue will shrink marginally by 0.72% to $86.47 billion, down from $87.10 billion last year. Similarly, the Texas-based company is predicted to generate earnings per share of $1.82, down more than 5% year-over-year from $1.92.
Chevron — Projections for Chevron, which recently suffered a fire incident at its refinery in Los Angeles, are even more dire. Its earnings per share is expected to plummet 32% to $1.71, down from $2.51 in the prior-year quarter.
This is even as the oil company’s revenue is anticipated to shrink by about 3% year-over-year to come in at $47.23 billion, compared to $48.67 billion reported during the same period last year.
Which Oil Stock Offers the Bigger Upside?
In August, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast that crude oil prices would continue to fall below $60 per barrel by the end of this year, with the average price for 2026 expected to near $50 per barrel. This is even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to reverse its crude oil production cuts, thereby increasing supply and putting more pressure on oil prices.
On Wall Street, ExxonMobil and Chevron’s shares both have a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on analyst assessments over the past three months — 12 Buys and 7 Holds for the former, and 11 Buys and 5 Holds for the latter.
However, with the average CVX price target of $171.27, Chevron’s shares offer the greater upside, with a 10.43% growth potential from the current level. Exxon comes close with a 9.56% upswing potential at an average XOM price target of $127.48.
See more oil stocks comparison here.