Shares in U.S. Steel (X) strengthened today on reports that President Trump will make a decision on whether to give the green light to its $15 billion takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel early next month.
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Political Issue
In its annual results presentation today Nippon Steel’s Vice Chairman Takahiro Mori, a lead negotiator on the deal, said he expects the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to make a recommendation on the deal to Trump by May 21, with a final decision from the President anticipated by June 5. The CFIUS reviews foreign investment for national security risk.
“We continue to believe that the U.S. Steel deal poses no risk to U.S. national security,” Mori said. “But the outcome will ultimately hinge on Trump’s decision, as the deal has become a political issue beyond just national security considerations.”
Nippon Steel added, according to a Reuters report, that its core proposal to acquire full ownership of U.S. Steel remains the starting point in negotiations with U.S. authorities, though the company is also exploring various proposals to secure approval.
Trump initially stated after his re-election that he “wouldn’t mind” if Nippon Steel bought a minority stake in U.S. Steel. He said he did not want U.S. steel to be owned by a foreign power suggesting that U.S. Steel would do “very well” under his new tariffs policies boosting domestic manufacturing and production. He said he didn’t know “why they even need a deal now.”
Indirect Tariff Hit
Analysts believe that the most likely outcome is that U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel will work with the Trump administration to secure an investment deal instead of a takeover.
This view seems to have been strengthened by Nippon’s results which revealed that forecast net profit for the year through March 31, 2026 would fall to $1.4 billion. That follows a 36% profit drop in the year ended March 2025 to $2.4 billion.
It blamed excess production and increased exports from China. It also warned of “indirect” impacts from U.S. tariffs.
Is X a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, X has a Hold consensus based on 1 Buy and 4 Hold ratings. Its highest price target is $50. X stock’s consensus price target is $43 implying an 3.81% upside.
