Sunrun downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst Ameet Thakkar downgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Underperform from Market Perform with a price target of $4, down from $9. The firm says revisions to President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” if adopted, suggest Sunrun’s ability to claim the solar investment tax credit on residential solar leases under Section 48E in fiscal 2026 and beyond is in jeopardy. While the bill is not finalized and could undergo multiple iterations in the Senate, with the elimination of section 25D residential credits in last week’s draft, there is limited political will to claw back residential credits in any Senate version, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO says that with over 90% of Sunrun’s customers under third-party ownership structures whereby homeowners’ lease or rent their solar equipment and the company retains tax credits, the termination of 48E for residential solar leases is a “material risk” to the company’s business model.