Stifel downgrades Waste Management on negative cash flow growth

Stifel analyst Michael Hoffman downgraded Waste Management to Hold from Buy with a price target of $171, down from $185. The analyst revisited his analysis of free cash flow to account for the company’s accelerated capital spending for recycling modernization and renewable natural gas. He accounts for the benefit of these investments beginning in 2023 and peaking in 2026. Hoffman sees negative free cash flow for Waste Management in 2022 and 2023, and "flat to up modestly" in 2024 before the impact of its above average investing kicks in 2025. The company’s near-term profit and margin pressure from recycling in the first half of 2023 "mutes the benefit of healthy reported price," contends Hoffman.