Southwest now sees Q1 RASM flat to up 2% vs. prior up 2.5%-4.5% view

In an update ahead of the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference, Southwest said: “The Company’s first quarter 2024 operational performance has been strong, thus far, and flight cancellations have been lower than was expected in late January, when first quarter 2024 capacity guidance was last provided. Since February 1, 2024, the Company’s completion factor has averaged 99.3 percent. Based on this trend, the Company now expects first quarter 2024 capacity to increase approximately 11 percent, compared with its previous estimate of approximately 10 percent, both year-over-year. Further, the Company now expects first quarter 2024 RASM to be in the range of flat to up 2 percent, compared with its previous estimate of up 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent, both year-over-year. Approximately one point of the decrease is due to higher than expected completion factors in February and March, with the remainder primarily attributable to lower than expected close-in leisure passenger volume. Thus far, first quarter 2024 managed business trends continue to strengthen sequentially, in line with expectations. Overall, demand remains stable and network adjustments are accretive. Nominal sequential RASM in first quarter 2024, relative to fourth quarter 2023, is still expected to be higher than seasonally normal and the Company continues to expect record first quarter operating revenues for first quarter 2024. Looking ahead, bookings for second quarter 2024 are currently ahead of seasonally normal trends and the Company expects to deliver all-time record operating revenues for the quarter. The Company expects positive year-over-year RASM trends to continue throughout the year.”