Philip Morris raises FY23 EPS view to $6.58-$6.61, consensus $5.98

Prior guidance was $6.13-$6.22. Sees revenue growth of around 8% vs. 7.5%-8.5% prior view. The company’s updated FY23 forecast assumes: “An estimated total international industry volume decline for cigarettes and HTUs, excluding China and the U.S., of 1.5% to 2.0%, compared to 0.5% to 1.5% previously; Total cigarette and HTU shipment volume growth for PMI of 1.0% to 1.5%, compared to ‘up to +1%’ previously; HTU shipment volume within the lower half of the company’s previous 125-to-130-billion-unit range (compared to around the middle of the range previously), reflecting the impact of a further delayed market launch in Taiwan, very limited growth in Russia and Ukraine, as well as some uncertainty related to inventory levels in the Europe Region, as trade partners adjust to the upcoming HTU flavor ban in the EU; Nicotine pouch shipment volume of 390 to 410 million cans (compared to 370 to 400 million cans previously), reflecting the continued outstanding growth of ZYN in the U.S.; A cigarette shipment volume decline of approximately 1.0% to 2.0%, compared to 1.5% to 2.5% previously; An effective tax rate, excluding discrete tax events, of approximately 20.5% to 21.5%; Operating cash flow of around $10 billion at prevailing exchange rates, subject to year-end working capital requirements; Capital expenditures of approximately $1.3 billion, partly reflecting increased investments behind smoke-free product manufacturing capacity, including for ILUMA consumables and Swedish Match’s portfolio; and No share repurchases in 2023.”