Pagaya initiated with a Neutral at UBS

UBS analyst Rayna Kumar initiated coverage of Pagaya with a Neutral rating and $1.25 price target. While Kumar estimates that from 2022E-2025E, Pagaya’s AI-powered network could fuel a 26% network volume and 23% top-line CAGR, the analyst expects mounting macro headwinds from rising interest rates and consumer credit deterioration to continue to pressure Pagaya’s loan approval rate in 2023, making it unlikely the company will achieve its 3-5 year medium-term network volume ambition of $25B, Kumar tells investors in a research note.